4.1 case studies of three key elections Flashcards
How many years of conservative rule did the 1979 election lead to?
18 years
Why was the 1979 election called?
James Callaghan minority Labour government lost a vote of no confidence in the HoC
What was the turnout of the 1979 election?
76%
How many years of Labour governments did the 1997 election lead to?
13 years
Why were the conservatives troubled in lead up to the 1997 election?
ongoing divisions, poor leadership and an inability to appear relevant to contemporary society
What was the turnout in the 1997 election?
71.4%
What was the turnout of the 2010 election?
65.1%
What was the size of the majority after the 1979 election?
43 seats
What was the size of the majority after the 1997 general election?
179 seats
What was the size of the majority after the 2010 election?
none till Conservative-Lib Dems coalition that had a majority of 77
1979 - party policies and manifestos
Labour + Conservative = moderation, high priority to bring inflation down
Callaghan = centre right of the Labour Party
Thatcher = mention of returning recently nationalised industries to private hands and removing some trade union powers
1979 - the election campaign
Conservatives = adopted many modern advertising techniques, such as photo opportunities (Thatcher was pictured tasting tea and holding a newborn calf)
Labour = Callaghan was 20 points ahead on average on polls on who would make a better prime minister
1979 - wider political context
‘winter of discontent’ - early months of 1979, the governments attempt to impose a 5% limit on pay increases collapsed as a series of strikes (by lorry drivers, health workers, etc.) created a sense of national paralysis
‘Crisis? What crisis?’ - the Sun accused Callaghan of being out of touch when he returned from a Caribbean Island summit meeting of world leaders and dismissed questions about the situation at home
1997 - party policies and manifestos
Labour = modernisation, New Labour abandoned old policies such as nationalisation, tax increases and the strengthening of trade union powers, tough signals on law and order, won endorsement in the press (the sun and the times), constitutional reform
1997 - the election campaign
New Labour =
- placed a huge emphasis on developing a professional vote-winning machine
- employed public-relations experts to handle the media
- used focus groups to assess public opinion
- systematically targeted marginal seats rather than safe seats
1997 - wider political context
- Labour could not have won on such a large scale without the damage the conservatives inflicted
- the conservatives had their worst election result since 1832, only winning 30.7%
- by 1997 the economy was recovering from the recession from the early 90s
- ‘Black Wednesday’ in 1992 was remembered
- Conservative = series of financial and sexual scandals (sleaze scandals) and continuing divisions over Britains relationship with the EU
2010 - party policies and manifestos
- three main parties main issue was the need to reduce the budget deficit, which had increased to £163 billion since the financial crisis of 2007-08
- Conservatives were alone in calling for immediate cuts, their rivals argued this would jeopardise the fragile economy
- Cameron focused his attacks on Labour’s alleged mismanagement of the economy
2010 - the election campaign
- Conservatives = intense targeting of marginal seats
- Labour = Brown was caught calling a woman a ‘bigoted woman’ after she asked him a hostile question about immigration
- televised debates with the three main party leaders, Brown came across as rather wooden, Nick Clegg experienced a boost in opinion polls
2010 - wider political context
- Gordon Brown’s choice of election date - when he didn’t call an autumn election he was alleged a coward (Bottler Brown)
- Brown was harshly treated in the media, being depicted as insecure, cantankerous workaholic who could not articulate a convincing vision for the country
- opinion polls showed the conservatives ahead of labour on some issues, which mostly came from tradition conservative territory like immigration and law and order
Up till the 1970s what were voters in Britain strongly influenced by?
their social class background
What party did working class people most often vote for and why?
Labour Party, it was closely linked to the trade union movement and looked after the interests of those who worked in the traditional heavy industries
What party did the middle classes most often vote for?
Conservative
What is class dealignment?
the process where individuals no longer identify themselves as belonging to a certain class and do not vote for the party they may be expected to given their background
What has led to difference between classes being less visible?
society has become more affluent
What percent of the two highest social classes voted in 2010?
76%
What percent of the two lowest social classes voted in 2010?
57%
What percentage of those who own their home voted in 2010?
74%
What percentage of those who live in social housing or in the private rented sector voted in 2010?
55%
What is the partisan dealignment?
the process where individuals no longer identify themselves on a long-term basis as being associated with a certain political party
What percentage of the electorate cast their votes for Labour and the Conservatives in 1979?
81%
What percentage of the electorate cast their votes for Labour and the Conservatives in 1997?
74%
What percentage of the electorate cast their votes for Labour and the Conservatives in 2010?
65%
What percentage of the electorate cast their votes for Labour and the Conservatives in 2019?
76%
What is disillusion an apathy and why is there a growing sense of it?
- a loss of confidence in the capacity of politics and politicians to solve problems and make a difference
- more people have become floating or swing voters who do not identify with a particular party and are open to persuasion at each election
What is the rational choice theory?
the idea that voters behave like consumers, deciding how to vote by evaluating what is the most beneficial option for them as individuals
What is governing competency?
the perceived ability of the governing party in office to manage the affairs of state effectively
What is the economic voting model?
voters are more likely to support a governing party if it has managed the economy successfully, or is thought likely to deliver economic prosperity
What factors may voters be influenced by when voting for a party?
inflation, unemployment, interest rates and taxation or broader sense of well-being
Historically what party did women prefer?
Conservatives
What percentage of women aged 18-24 voted Conservative in the 2010 election?
30%
What percentage of women over 55 voted Conservative in the 2010 election?
42%
What was the turnout for men in the 2010 election?
66%
What was the turnout for women in the 2010 election?
64%
Why are older people more likely to vote conservatives?
they are more likely to own property and will vote for the party that can be expected to protect their material interests
What percentage of over 65s voted conservative in the 2010 election?
44%
What percentage of 18-24 voted conservative in the 2010 election?
30%
What percentage of over 70s voted conservative in the 2019 election?
67%
What percentage of 18-24 voted conservative in the 2019 election?
21%
What percentage of over 70s voted Labour in the 2019 election?
14%
What percentage of 18-24 voted Labour in the 2019 election?
56%
What party are ethnic minorities traditionally inclined to vote for and why?
Labour, focused more strongly than its opponents on promoting a multi-cultural and anti-discrimination agenda
What percentage of ethnic minorities voted for Labour in the 2010 election?
60%
What percentage of ethnic minorities voted for Conservatives in the 2010 election?
16%
What was the turnout of white people voting in the 2010 election?
67%
What was the turnout of ethnic minorities voting in the 2010 election?
51%
What percentage of those without qualifications voted for Brexit?
75%
What percentage of those with university degrees voted against Brexit?
75%
What do most voters in the south and in rural ares and suburbs vote for?
Conservative
What do most voters in industrial and urban areas, in North England, Wales and the Midlands vote for?
Labour
What was the percentage turnout for the UK in 2017?
68.7%
What was the percentage turnout for the England in 2017?
69.1%
What was the percentage turnout for the Wales in 2017?
68.6%
What was the percentage turnout for the Scotland in 2017?
66.4%
What was the percentage turnout for the Northern Ireland in 2017?
65.4%
What are the four social classes in order from highest to lowest?
AB - higher and intermediate managerial, administrative and professional occupations
C1 - supervisory, clerical and junior managerial, administrative and professional occupations
C2 - skilled manual occupations
DE - semi-skilled and unskilled manual occupations, unemployed and lowest grade occupations
What percentage of middle class (ABC1) voted conservative in the 2019 election?
43%
What percentage of middle class (ABC1) voted labour in the 2019 election?
33%
What percentage of skilled working class (C2) voted conservative in the 2019 election?
49%
What percentage of skilled working class (C2) voted labour in the 2019 election?
31%
What percentage of semi/unskilled working class (DE) voted conservative in the 2019 election?
47%
What percentage of skilled working class (C2) voted labour in the 2019 election?
34%
What percentage of men voted conservative in the 2019 election?
46%
What percentage of men voted labour in the 2019 election?
31%
What percentage of women voted conservative in the 2019 election?
44%
What percentage of women voted labour in the 2019 election?
35%
What percentage of 30-34 year olds voted conservative in the 2019 election?
30%
What percentage of 30-34 year olds voted labour in the 2019 election?
46%
