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Foreign affairs Final exam > 3.2 Psychology of foreign policy decision making > Flashcards

3.2 Psychology of foreign policy decision making Flashcards

1
Q

This model suggests that the individual possesses all the relevant information, stipulates a goal, examines the relevant choices and makes decisions that best achieves the goal.

A

Rational Model

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2
Q

Are individuals rational decision-makers?

A

No. They can be overwhelmed with information

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3
Q

What factor impact the decision maker?

A

Personal experiences

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4
Q

What three steps do the decision maker take when receiving incoming information?

A

Select, organize and evaluate incoming information

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5
Q

What model is the most typical, common way to understand foreign policy decision-making?

A

The Rational Actor Model (ALLISON’s Model 1)

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6
Q

What is the Rational actor model based on?

A

Certain assumptions about the individual psychology of leaders as human beings

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7
Q

Three steps to how a rational leader should take a decision

A
  1. Order preferences in a logical way, assesing pros and cons
  2. Choose the optimal option that maximizes gains and minimizes loss
  3. Constantly use of reliable information to update preferences
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8
Q

8 steps in the rational decision-making process

A
  1. Identify the problem
  2. Establish decision criteria
  3. weigh decision criteria
  4. generate alternatives
  5. evaluate alternatives
  6. Choose the best alternative
  7. Implement the decision
  8. Evaluate the decision
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9
Q

What is the description of the human rationality according to psychology and neuroscience

A

limited and imperfect

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10
Q

Three group information-processing mechanisms

A
  1. Mirror image
  2. Satisficing
  3. Groupthink
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11
Q

The tendency of individuals and groups to see one’s opponent the opposite of characteristics seen in oneself. The opponent is viewed as hostile and uncompromising, while one’s self is viewed as friendly and compromising

A

Mirror image

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12
Q

Example of mirror image

A

The cold war: the US was friendly and the Soviets were evil

Today: Western democracies are friendly while Islamic regimes are evil

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13
Q

The tendency for groups to search for a “good enough” solution rather than an optimal one

A

Satisficing

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14
Q

Example of satisficing

A

NATOs decision to bomb Kosovo in 1999 in an attempt to stop the ethnic cleansing of the Albanian Kosovars

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15
Q

The tendency for small groups to form a consensus and resist criticism of that core position, often disregarding contradictory information. The dynamics of the group include the illusion of invulnerability and unanimity, excessive optimism, the belief in their own morality.

A

Groupthink

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16
Q

An example of Groupthink

A

The opponents of an American attack on Cuba was left out of the planning for the Bay of Pigs operation

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17
Q

What does cognitive psychology say about human rationality?

A

Human beings do not decide according to a rational model

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18
Q

What is bounded rationality?

A
  • We do not seek the best choice, only one that is sufficient to satisfy us
  • We prefer the most practical option: fewer resources, easy to implement, acceptable for everyone involved
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19
Q

Type of person:

  • Exhaustively seek the best
  • Compare decisions with others
  • expend more time and energy
  • Unhappier with outcomes
A

Maximizers

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20
Q

Type of person:

  • accept good enough
  • Don’t obsess over other options
  • Can move on after deciding
  • Happier with outcomes
A

Satisficers

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21
Q

Neuroscience is discovering that many decisions are not the result of a conscious thought process, but…

A

pre-conscious neurological processes

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22
Q

What are the emotional responses?

A
  • We feel before we think
  • We act before we think
  • Emotions are quick and relatively inflexible
  • Cognition is slower but more flexible
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23
Q

What are the 6 facts that were discovered when FPAs studied leaders’ perceptions and misperceptions of the international environment?

A
  1. Leaders get incomplete and inaccurate information
  2. Signaling: the original meaning of the information is lost when interpreted by the receiver
  3. Misinformation, propaganda, and deception
  4. Political culture and strategic culture
  5. Learning from past events modifies future perceptions
  6. Violation of norms means an elevation of threat perception from the rest of the members of the international society
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24
Q

What is the security dilemma of a defensive strategy?

A

A defensive strategy can be perceived as offensive by others

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25
Q

if the leaders of a country break the social contract by not protecting their own population, the population can also break the social contract by overthrowing the government.

A

Rosseau’s social contract

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26
Q

Everything is better if we compare regimes with anarchy. It is the worst thing that can happen to a society. It is, therefore, better to have a dictatorship than an anarchic system which means a civil war-

A

Leviathan by Hobbes

27
Q

What school of IR theory?

Focusing on just perception is problematic. There is an objective reality out there, independent from the observer.
We can construct reality by giving meaning to it.

A

Constructivist FPA

28
Q

What is framing?

A

The same event can be seen in different ways depending on how the person frame it. This is impacted by personal background, culture ideas, and worldview

29
Q

“Perception is relative”

True/false?

A

True

30
Q

What are the six main cognitive factors that influence political decision-making?

A
  1. Simplicity
  2. Consistence
  3. Estimating probabilities
  4. Risk aversion
  5. Heuristics
  6. Cognitive biases
31
Q

What cognitive factor?

“Decision-makers construct mental models that simplify reality”

A

Simplicity

32
Q

“applying similar experiences from the past, in spite of the different specific details.”

A

Reasoning by analogies

33
Q

The simplicity cognitive factor is…

A

the simplification of the environment

34
Q

What cognitive factor?

“We are uncomfortable with new information that contradicts our previous beliefs, and we tend to discard it.”

  • Errors are rationalized
  • Leaders can maintain a decision even when facts prove that they are wrong
A

Consistence

35
Q

“When reality is clearly different from our beliefs, we make small adjustments in those ideas, instead of completely abandoning them”

A

Cognitive consistency theory

36
Q

the state of having inconsistent thoughts, beliefs, or attitudes, especially as relating to behavioral decisions and attitude change

A

Cognitive dissonance

37
Q

How can cognitive dissonance be avoided?

A

By discarding new information as false or deceitful

38
Q

How to avoid cognitive consistency?

A

-The information must be given in large quantities

39
Q

What believes are the most resistant to change?

A

Long-term believes

Ex: Israel and Palestine

40
Q

Expert on one issue that they try to apply to all areas. They do not question their own beliefs. Uses the main theories of international relations to understand international processes. They try to fit reality into a given theory

A

Hedgehogs

41
Q

Know details about different topics. More open to change their minds and are better at making predictions than hedgehogs. They are skeptical of these theories. They look at actual events. Are not as sure about what might happen in the future as they do not trust in a given theory

A

Foxes

42
Q

What are the two types of cognitive style?

A

Foxes and hedgehogs

43
Q 
How (...) think:
-Multidisciplinary
-Adaptable
-Self-critical
Tolerant of complexity
-cautious
-Empirical
A

How foxes think

44
Q

How (…) think

  • Specialized
  • Stalwart: stick to the same all-in approach
  • stubborn
  • order seeking
  • confident
  • ideological
A

How hedgehogs think

45
Q

Who are the best forecasters of foxes and hedgehogs?

A

Foxes

46
Q

When (…) we are not rational at all. We are influenced by our dreams, hopes, and fears

A

Estimating probabilities

47
Q

Is it as easy to estimate probabilities in IR as in “hard science”?

A

No, it is almost impossible. There are too many factors and incomplete information

48
Q
  • Failures are more painful than risks are pleasant. Therefore we tend to prefer a smaller but immediate gain than a higher risk to obtain a greater benefit in the long term.
  • We are more prepared to take a risk to get something back than to obtain something new
A

Risk aversion

49
Q

Cognitive shortcuts or “rules of thumb” used by decision-makers to process information. What we know has an excessive influence on how we imagine future events.

A

Heuristics

50
Q

Searching for information that confirms our existing beliefs and ignoring the rest

A

Cognitive bias

51
Q

Explaining the disliked behavior of others as voluntary decisions, while we explain our own behavior as a result of external constraints.

A

Fundamental attribution error

52
Q

Actions by others are interpreted as the results of our previous actions and targeted against us

A

Egocentric bias

53
Q

Misremembering what we predicted

A

Hindsight bias

54
Q

Simplified images to understand others

A

Stereotypes

55
Q

Sense of superiority, mistrust towards certain countries. Underestimates their positive qualities and exaggerates their weakness or aggressiveness.

A

Prejudice

56
Q

Understanding the others as if they were “like us”

A

Mirror image

57
Q

We are influenced more by (…) than by second-hand information

A

Personal experiences and anecdotes

58
Q

Not able to put oneself in the other shoes

A

Lack of empathy

59
Q

To judge oneself and the others

A

Double standards

60
Q

Believing that you were right in your assessment when you were not

A

Self-deceit

61
Q

a tendency to see an (…) behind a series of events instead of coincidences or errors

A

organized plan

62
Q

The pressure to assume the majority opinions in a small group. Self-censorship, lack of critical/alternative views, recklessness

A

Groupthink

63
Q

Cognitive biases do not only affect political decision-makers, but also…

A

foreign policy analysts. Academics, diplomats, think tankers, intelligence analysts…

Foreign affairs Final exam (7 decks)

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