3.2 Psychology of foreign policy decision making

Question 1

This model suggests that the individual possesses all the relevant information, stipulates a goal, examines the relevant choices and makes decisions that best achieves the goal.

Answer 1

Rational Model

Question 2

Are individuals rational decision-makers?

Answer 2

No. They can be overwhelmed with information

Question 3

What factor impact the decision maker?

Answer 3

Personal experiences

Question 4

What three steps do the decision maker take when receiving incoming information?

Answer 4

Select, organize and evaluate incoming information

Question 5

What model is the most typical, common way to understand foreign policy decision-making?

Answer 5

The Rational Actor Model (ALLISON’s Model 1)

Question 6

What is the Rational actor model based on?

Answer 6

Certain assumptions about the individual psychology of leaders as human beings

Question 7

Three steps to how a rational leader should take a decision

Answer 7

1. Order preferences in a logical way, assesing pros and cons
2. Choose the optimal option that maximizes gains and minimizes loss
3. Constantly use of reliable information to update preferences

Question 8

8 steps in the rational decision-making process

Answer 8

1. Identify the problem
2. Establish decision criteria
3. weigh decision criteria
4. generate alternatives
5. evaluate alternatives
6. Choose the best alternative
7. Implement the decision
8. Evaluate the decision

Question 9

What is the description of the human rationality according to psychology and neuroscience

Answer 9

limited and imperfect

Question 10

Three group information-processing mechanisms

Answer 10

1. Mirror image
2. Satisficing
3. Groupthink

Question 11

The tendency of individuals and groups to see one’s opponent the opposite of characteristics seen in oneself. The opponent is viewed as hostile and uncompromising, while one’s self is viewed as friendly and compromising

Answer 11

Mirror image

Question 12

Example of mirror image

Answer 12

The cold war: the US was friendly and the Soviets were evil

Today: Western democracies are friendly while Islamic regimes are evil

Question 13

The tendency for groups to search for a “good enough” solution rather than an optimal one

Answer 13

Satisficing

Question 14

Example of satisficing

Answer 14

NATOs decision to bomb Kosovo in 1999 in an attempt to stop the ethnic cleansing of the Albanian Kosovars

Question 15

The tendency for small groups to form a consensus and resist criticism of that core position, often disregarding contradictory information. The dynamics of the group include the illusion of invulnerability and unanimity, excessive optimism, the belief in their own morality.

Answer 15

Groupthink

Question 16

An example of Groupthink

Answer 16

The opponents of an American attack on Cuba was left out of the planning for the Bay of Pigs operation

Question 17

What does cognitive psychology say about human rationality?

Answer 17

Human beings do not decide according to a rational model

Question 18

What is bounded rationality?

Answer 18

• We do not seek the best choice, only one that is sufficient to satisfy us
• We prefer the most practical option: fewer resources, easy to implement, acceptable for everyone involved

Question 19

Type of person:

• Exhaustively seek the best
• Compare decisions with others
• expend more time and energy
• Unhappier with outcomes

Answer 19

Maximizers

Question 20

Type of person:

• accept good enough
• Don’t obsess over other options
• Can move on after deciding
• Happier with outcomes

Answer 20

Satisficers

Question 21

Neuroscience is discovering that many decisions are not the result of a conscious thought process, but…

Answer 21

pre-conscious neurological processes

Question 22

What are the emotional responses?

Answer 22

• We feel before we think
• We act before we think
• Emotions are quick and relatively inflexible
• Cognition is slower but more flexible

Question 23

What are the 6 facts that were discovered when FPAs studied leaders’ perceptions and misperceptions of the international environment?

Answer 23

1. Leaders get incomplete and inaccurate information
2. Signaling: the original meaning of the information is lost when interpreted by the receiver
3. Misinformation, propaganda, and deception
4. Political culture and strategic culture
5. Learning from past events modifies future perceptions
6. Violation of norms means an elevation of threat perception from the rest of the members of the international society

Question 24

What is the security dilemma of a defensive strategy?

Answer 24

A defensive strategy can be perceived as offensive by others

Question 25

if the leaders of a country break the social contract by not protecting their own population, the population can also break the social contract by overthrowing the government.

Answer 25

Rosseau's social contract

Question 26

Everything is better if we compare regimes with anarchy. It is the worst thing that can happen to a society. It is, therefore, better to have a dictatorship than an anarchic system which means a civil war-

Answer 26

Leviathan by Hobbes

Question 27

What school of IR theory? Focusing on just perception is problematic. There is an objective reality out there, independent from the observer. We can construct reality by giving meaning to it.

Answer 27

Constructivist FPA

Question 28

What is framing?

Answer 28

The same event can be seen in different ways depending on how the person frame it. This is impacted by personal background, culture ideas, and worldview

Question 29

"Perception is relative" | True/false?

Answer 29

True

Question 30

What are the six main cognitive factors that influence political decision-making?

Answer 30

1. Simplicity 2. Consistence 3. Estimating probabilities 4. Risk aversion 5. Heuristics 6. Cognitive biases

Question 31

What cognitive factor? "Decision-makers construct mental models that simplify reality"

Answer 31

Simplicity

Question 32

"applying similar experiences from the past, in spite of the different specific details."

Answer 32

Reasoning by analogies

Question 33

The simplicity cognitive factor is...

Answer 33

the simplification of the environment

Question 34

What cognitive factor? "We are uncomfortable with new information that contradicts our previous beliefs, and we tend to discard it." - Errors are rationalized - Leaders can maintain a decision even when facts prove that they are wrong

Answer 34

Consistence

Question 35

"When reality is clearly different from our beliefs, we make small adjustments in those ideas, instead of completely abandoning them"

Answer 35

Cognitive consistency theory

Question 36

the state of having inconsistent thoughts, beliefs, or attitudes, especially as relating to behavioral decisions and attitude change

Answer 36

Cognitive dissonance

Question 37

How can cognitive dissonance be avoided?

Answer 37

By discarding new information as false or deceitful

Question 38

How to avoid cognitive consistency?

Answer 38

-The information must be given in large quantities

Question 39

What believes are the most resistant to change?

Answer 39

Long-term believes Ex: Israel and Palestine

Question 40

Expert on one issue that they try to apply to all areas. They do not question their own beliefs. Uses the main theories of international relations to understand international processes. They try to fit reality into a given theory

Answer 40

Hedgehogs

Question 41

Know details about different topics. More open to change their minds and are better at making predictions than hedgehogs. They are skeptical of these theories. They look at actual events. Are not as sure about what might happen in the future as they do not trust in a given theory

Answer 41

Foxes

Question 42

What are the two types of cognitive style?

Answer 42

Foxes and hedgehogs

Question 43

``` How (...) think: -Multidisciplinary -Adaptable -Self-critical Tolerant of complexity -cautious -Empirical ```

Answer 43

How foxes think

Question 44

How (...) think - Specialized - Stalwart: stick to the same all-in approach - stubborn - order seeking - confident - ideological

Answer 44

How hedgehogs think

Question 45

Who are the best forecasters of foxes and hedgehogs?

Answer 45

Foxes

Question 46

When (...) we are not rational at all. We are influenced by our dreams, hopes, and fears

Answer 46

Estimating probabilities

Question 47

Is it as easy to estimate probabilities in IR as in "hard science"?

Answer 47

No, it is almost impossible. There are too many factors and incomplete information

Question 48

- Failures are more painful than risks are pleasant. Therefore we tend to prefer a smaller but immediate gain than a higher risk to obtain a greater benefit in the long term. - We are more prepared to take a risk to get something back than to obtain something new

Answer 48

Risk aversion

Question 49

Cognitive shortcuts or "rules of thumb" used by decision-makers to process information. What we know has an excessive influence on how we imagine future events.

Answer 49

Heuristics

Question 50

Searching for information that confirms our existing beliefs and ignoring the rest

Answer 50

Cognitive bias

Question 51

Explaining the disliked behavior of others as voluntary decisions, while we explain our own behavior as a result of external constraints.

Answer 51

Fundamental attribution error

Question 52

Actions by others are interpreted as the results of our previous actions and targeted against us

Answer 52

Egocentric bias

Question 53

Misremembering what we predicted

Answer 53

Hindsight bias

Question 54

Simplified images to understand others

Answer 54

Stereotypes

Question 55

Sense of superiority, mistrust towards certain countries. Underestimates their positive qualities and exaggerates their weakness or aggressiveness.

Answer 55

Prejudice

Question 56

Understanding the others as if they were "like us"

Answer 56

Mirror image

Question 57

We are influenced more by (...) than by second-hand information

Answer 57

Personal experiences and anecdotes

Question 58

Not able to put oneself in the other shoes

Answer 58

Lack of empathy

Question 59

To judge oneself and the others

Answer 59

Double standards

Question 60

Believing that you were right in your assessment when you were not

Answer 60

Self-deceit

Question 61

a tendency to see an (...) behind a series of events instead of coincidences or errors

Answer 61

organized plan

Question 62

The pressure to assume the majority opinions in a small group. Self-censorship, lack of critical/alternative views, recklessness

Answer 62

Groupthink

Question 63

Cognitive biases do not only affect political decision-makers, but also...

Answer 63

foreign policy analysts. Academics, diplomats, think tankers, intelligence analysts...