2.2 Flashcards
Definition of Sales forecast
Predication of achievable sales revenue based on data analysis trends , economic variables and competitor actions
Purpose of a sales forecast
To see if they will need to increase their productive capacity - produce more , buy more factory space , employ more workers
How can a sales forecast be produced
Market research - the accuracy of the data will impact on the quality of the forecast
Things they might look at - how many future sales they’ll make , effect of promotion on sales , changes in the size of the market , seasonal sales
Definition of time series analysis
The prediction of future sales based on past data
The four key components that a business will try to identify using time series data
The trend
Seasonal fluctuations
Cyclical fluctuations - impact of economy
Random fluctuations
How to calculate percentage change
Difference / Original x 100
Factors affecting sales forecasts
Consumer trends
Seasonal variations
Competition
Long term trends
Economic growth rate
Inflation rate
Unemployment levels
Interest rates
Exchange rates
Definition of Consumer trends
The Habits and behaviours of consumers around the products they buy and how they use them
Definition of Seasonal variations
How sales will vary across the seasons
Definition of economic growth
The increase in the total output of the economy measured by GDP
Definition of interest rates
Cost of borrowing or the benefits of saving
Definition of inflation
The sustained rise in the general price level over time
Definition of Exchange rates
The value of one currency in terms of another currency
Difficulties of sales forecasting
Historical data may not reflect future performance
Seasonality may affect sales
Natural disaster cannot be foreseen
Fluctuations in demand
A new business has no historical data to look at
Really hard to accurately predict the future
Definition of Costs
What a business has to pay in order to continue operating
Definition of Fixed Costs
Costs that don’t change with output