1.2 Demographic Transition Flashcards
What is the DTM (Demographic Transition Model)?
Describes how the population of a country changes over time. It shows changes in the birth rate and death rate of a country. There are 5 stages in the DTM
Advantages of DTM
- It can be applied to all countries.
- It provides a starting point to demographic change over time.
- The timescales are flexible.
- It’s easy to understand.
- It enables comparisons between countries.
Disadvantages of DTM
- The DTM is Eurocentric as the model assumes that all countries pass through the same four stages. Not many LEDCs might follow the sequence
- The model does not include the impacts of migration. Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (e.g, USA, Canada & Australia) did not pass through the earlier stages of the model.
- Introduction of technology such as vaccinations has reduced the death rate more rapidly in some places
- Disease (AIDS epidemic) has caused death rates to rise suddenly in many African nations, changing their stage in the model
- Government intervention such as the one child policy in China has led to a reduction in birth rates, before other developments have taken place
- Wars/ Natural disasters can alter death rates and the model does not allow for this
Stage 1 in the DTM (High stationary)
- Both crude birth rate and crude death rate are high and fluctuating due to the sporadic incidence of famine, war and diseases
- Slow population growth
- High infant mortality
- Low life expectancy
- Large amount of youth dependents
- Most people rely on subsistence agriculture
Stage 2 in the DTM (Early Expanding)
- Crude birth rate remains high as social norms about change in family size takes time
- Crude death rate declines significantly due to improvement in nutrition, public healthcare and sanitation
- Rate of natural increase peaks at the end of this stage
- Increase in youth dependency
- Infant mortality decreases
- Life expectancy increases
Stage 3 in the DTM (Late Expanding)
- Social norms start to change and results in lower level of fertility => birth rate declines
- Life expectancy continues to increase
- Infant mortality continues to decrease
Stage 4 in the DTM (Low stationary)
- Crude birth rate and death rate are both low
- Both fluctuate due to economic changes
- Death rate rises slightly as the average age of the population increases
Stage 5 in the DTM (Declining)
- Experience natural decrease as death rate > birth rate
- Social norms/gender equality/ career focus causes decline in birth rates
Define life expectancy
The average age a person is expected to live to within a country
Define GNP
Gross National Product (or GNP) is an economic statistic that includes GDP, plus any income earned by residents from overseas investments, minus income earned within the domestic economy by overseas residents.
Define income per capita
A measure of the total output of a country that takes the gross domestic product (GDP) and divides it by the number of people in the country.
Define HDI
To measure and rank countries’ levels of social and economic development based on four criteria: Life expectancy at birth, adult literacy rate, gross enrollment ratio and income per capita
Define an ageing population
A rise in the median age of a population
Facts and figures about ageing population
- The global average life expectancy increases from 46 to 65 from 1950 to 2000. Projected to reach 74 by 2050
- In LEDCs, population aged over 60 years will quadruple between 2000 and 2050
- Population aged over 80 years is 69 million 2000 and is expected to reach 375 million by 2050
Issues with ageing population
- There may be a shortage of workers (not enough economically active)
- If there is a shortage of workers there are less tax payers and the government receives less money
- Old people tend to get more sick, so there will be an increase in pressure on hospitals
- In many countries retired people can claim pensions off the government. If there are a lot of old people this can be very expensive.
- The government has to provide places in care homes or provide services so people can care for themselves at home
