11 - Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management Flashcards
Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management:
Risk shall be determined by ,,,,,
combining the POF and COF
Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management:
Formula;
Risk =
probability × consequence
Determination of the Probability of a Specific Consequence:
The probability of a specific consequence is tied to the severity of the consequence and may differ considerably from the ,,,,,,
probability of the equipment failure itself
Determination of the Probability of a Specific Consequence:
Probabilities of incidents generally decrease with the ,,,,,
severity of the incident.
Determination of the Probability of a Specific Consequence:
the loss of containment failure may only be the first event in a series of events that lead to ,,,,
a specific consequence.
Calculate Risk :
If probability and consequence are not expressed as numerical values, risk is usually determined by ,,,,
plotting the probability and consequence on a risk matrix
Calculate Risk :
Note that when a risk matrix is used, the probability to be plotted should be the probability of the associated consequence, not ,,,,,
the POF
Sensitivity Analysis:
Sensitivity analysis typically involves reviewing some or all input variables to the risk calculation to determine ,,,,,
the overall influence on the resultant risk value.
Risk Presentation:
Once risk values are developed, they can then be presented in a variety of ways to communicate the results of the analysis to decision-makers and inspection planners. Using a ,,,,,, is helpful in accomplishing this goal.
risk matrix or plot
Risk Matrix :
For risk ranking methodologies that use consequence and probability categories, presenting the results in a risk matrix is a very effective way of communicating the distribution of risks throughout a plant or process unit without ,,,,,
numerical values
Risk Matrix :
Risk categories may be assigned to ,,,,, on the risk matrix
the boxes
Risk Matrix :
A risk matrix depicts results at a ,,,,
particular point in time
Risk Plots:
When more quantitative consequence and probability data are being used, and where showing ,,,,, to the stakeholders, a risk plot (or graph) is used
numeric risk values is more meaningful
Risk Plots:
Often a risk plot is drawn using ,,,,, for a better understanding of the relative risks of the items assessed
log-log scales
Using a Risk Plot or Matrix:
Equipment items residing toward the ,,,,, corner of the plot or matrix (in the examples presented) will most likely take priority for inspection planning because these items have the highest risk
upper right-hand