Week1

Question 1

Define hindsight bias

Answer 1

the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that I would have foreseen it. Once the outcome becomes ‘familiar’, it becomes obvious.

ex: after an election or a war, the outcome only then seems obvious, but no one can predict the future.

ex. Dear Diary, Today the Hundred Years War began. (no, no one predicted when or how long it would have lasted, until after it was done)

aka “I-knew-it-all-along phenomenom”

Common sense is not ‘wrong’ - but it is useful for describing what has happened, instead of what will happen.

Question 2

Define Overconfidence

(2nd common flaw in commonsense thinking)

Answer 2

Tending to think we know more than we do.
ex: given a puzzle or a problem with the answer directly beside it gives us overconfidence because we think we would have solved it quickly. In reality, it would have taken a lot longer, without the answer beside the puzzle

Only about 2% of people are ‘superforecasters’ of behaviour, after they have collected data, facts, looked at various arguments, and then settled on an answer. Most experts are only accurate 40% of the time!

“No woman in my time will be PM” - M. Thatcher, 1969 (PM in Britain in 1979)

Question 3

Define ‘Perceiving Order in Random Events’

(3rd common flaw in commonsense thinking)

Answer 3

The tendency to see a picture, sound, or a pattern that really isn’t there. Why? to make sense of random or unpredictable events.

ex: seeing a face on the moon
ex: thinking that satanic messages are in music played backwards
ex: seeing a pattern or message in random data

Question 4

Define ‘post-truth’

2017 Oxford English Dictionary word-of-the-year

Answer 4

in modern culture, whereby ppl’s emotions and personal beliefs often override their acceptance of objective facts

This is strengthened by 4 things:
1. False News (spreads faster, farther, and deeper than truth)
2. Repetition (hearing news multiple times)
3. Powerful Examples (seeing vivid, graphic, gory, detailed pictures of events, overestimating our belief that it will happen to us)
4. Like-minded with Like-minded: birds of a feather flock together and strengthen their opinions together by only socialising with like-minded ppl

Question 5

Define Scientific Method

Answer 5

a process that evaluates ideas with observation and analysis

ex: a theory is submitted, a prediction is tested by gathering data, and if it’s supported by data (good), and if it’s not, it’s revised or rejected

Question 6

Define Theory

Answer 6

A statement of:

1. How concepts & constructs relate to each other

(and this is done to..)

2. organizing and predicting behaviours/events that are testable and explain phenomena

A good theory includes the above AND stimulate further research.

ex: Freudian Theory = uses constructs such as id, ego, and superego to organise & explain an array of abnormal/normal behaviours (based on scant evidence)

ex: Big Five Theory of Personality = appeals to these 5 constructs in order to organize & describe our differences in thinking, feeling, & acting, such as:

1. Openness to experience
2. Conscientiousness
3. Extraversion
4. Agreeableness
5. Neuroticism
   (based on extensive evidence)

like an idea that explains behaviours or events

Question 7

Define Hypothesis

Answer 7

Inside a good theory, there must be a testable predictions

hypothesis = prediction (IF, THEN…if this is true, then we should expect to observe the stated relationship)

ex: IF the Yerkes-Dodson Law is correct, THEN we predict ‘focused’ participants should outperform ‘bored’ ones, as well as ‘stressed’ participants on a task

These predictions also state which results would support it and which results would disconfirm it

Question 8

Why is ‘replication’ of a study so important?

Answer 8

• it means the basic findings can be reproduced
• confidence in the results increases
• it confirms the original results
• original results are more reliable

Question 9

What is meta-analysis?

Answer 9

a statistical procedure for analyzing the results of multiple studies to show an overall conclusion

combines the results of many studies

Question 10

Define case study

(1 of 3 descriptive methods)

Answer 10

when 1 individual or a group is studied in depth

ex: studies patients who all have brain damage
ex: studies of serial killers (the ‘MacDonald’ or ‘serial killer’ triad: tortures animals, starts fires, wets the bed)

! Since case studies involve only 1 person or a group of people, it may not always reveal general principles that are applicable to the whole population.

Cons: can be misleading because can’t be replicated & run the risk of overgeneralizing

Pros: show what can happen, provides insight into possible future studies and research, memorable and good stories to observe and describe behaviour

Question 11

Define Naturalistic Observation

(2 of 3 descriptive methods)

Answer 11

A descriptive technique: observing and recording behaviour in naturally occuring situations without manipulating/controlling it

ex: observing kids in a cafeteria
ex: using big data to analyse, from phone apps, social media, Google searches
ex: Psychologist Edward Tronik spent time with the Efe ppl in Zaire observing that they use multiple communal caregivers for their kids

Cons & Pros: doesn’t explain behaviour - describes it. Why does it occur?

A snapshot of everyday life, with no controlled variables

Question 12

Define a Survey

(3 of 3 Descriptive techniques)

Answer 12

Another type of descriptive technique whereby surveys are used to get self-reported behaviours/attitudes/opinions of a certain group. (a random sampling of a group)

ex: baby boomers had 2x the sex than do millenials, as they report it
ex: 68% of people on Earth say that religion is important in their lives

Cons: ppl can shade their answers to a more socially desirable direction, such as how much they actually smoke. Need to use the right wording. Lastly, need to ask the ‘right’ group (a random sampling of a representative group that actually represents the population)

Pros: gets consciously held attitudes and beliefs

Question 13

An in-depth observation of a small group or a single individual is an example of which research method?
1. Experimental
2. Naturalistic
3. Case Study
4. Survey

Answer 13

Case Study

Question 14

Manipulation of the experiment means:
1. participants are divided into groups by the researcher to minimize random assignment
2. Results of other experiments can’t be replicated by other researchers
3. All variables have been controlled, except for the one being tested.
4. Only the person running the experiment knows which is the control and experiment groups

Answer 14

All variables have been controlled, except for the one being tested.

Question 15

If different researchers get consistent results from testing a hypothesis, the results are said to be:
1. manually assigned
2. reliable
3. valid
4. manipulated

Answer 15

Reliable

Question 16

A and B may not be causally related because both may be causally dependent on C. This is known as:
1. matched assignment
2. the third variable problem
3. manipulation
4. random assignment

Answer 16

the 3rd variable problem

Question 17

Random Assignment is important in an experiment because:
1. the 2 groups will be different enough that the 3rd variable problem will be eliminated
2. participants will not know the parameters of the experiment
3. the 2 groups will be the same on average for all variables
4. participants can opt into the group they want

Answer 17

the two groups will be the same on average for all variables

Question 18

If you find a correlational relationship between two variables:
1. you can determine causation after you manipulate the experiment
2. the 3rd variable problem will be resolved
3. you can determine the causation
4. you know nothing about the causal relationship between the 2 variables

Answer 18

you know nothing about the causal relationship between the 2 variables

Question 19

Which is a better hypothesis?
1. Humans will be faster than humans who haven’t had caffeine.
2. Humans given caffeine will navigate a maze faster than adult humans not given caffeine.

Answer 19

Humans given caffeine will navigate a maze faster than adult humans not given caffeine.

Question 20

In order to generate findings about causation, researchers must use ____ research.
1. experimental
2. naturalistic
3. correlational
4. observational

Answer 20

experimental

To discover cause & effect relationships, experiments are conducted. Random assignment is used to minimize confounding variables such as pre-existing differences among the participants (experimental group & control group). The independent variable is the thing that is manipulated by the experimenter in order to study it’s effect. The experimenter than measures the dependent variable to discover changes due to the manipulations. A double-blind procedure may be done to avoid the placebo effect.

Question 21

What is the only thing correlations can provide?

Answer 21

predict the possibility of cause-and-effect, but not prove them

NO causal relationships between variables discovered!

Question 22

Case studies do not allow for ____?
1. operationalization
2. memorable results
3. replication
4. individual observation

Answer 22

replication

Question 23

In this procedure, the experimenter does not know if a participant is in the control group or if they are in the experimental group?
1. double-blind
2. confounding
3. placebo
4. experimental

Answer 23

double-blind

Question 24

____ variables are outside factors in an experiment that may skew the results:
1. observational
2. confounding
3. independent
4. dependent

Answer 24

Confounding: gives alternative explanation/results for an experiment.
Object of an experiment is to prove A causes B. The confound causes change in B.

ex: participants who smoked weed did hit more pedestrians and they were less cheerful. Can’t say that the weed caused the bad mood AND the hitting of more pedestrians. Mood is the confound.

A good reason to use ‘random assignment’!

Question 25

What technique is used to minimize pre-existing differences between the treatment group and the control group: 1. measuring the placebo effect 2. random assignment 3. manipulating the independent variable

Answer 25

random assignment

Question 26

What is **random sampling**?

Answer 26

When access to an entire population is limited or impractical, but we want data from it, a **sample** (a part) of the **population** is accessed instead. This **random sampling** of people should represent the entire population, and every member of the population should have an equal change of being included in the sample. (not every characteristic can be represented, maybe gender, skin colour, and diversity but more than this --> why random sampling is used)

Question 27

What is a **random assignment**?

Answer 27

* Occurs after the random sampling of the population * consists of randomly placing participants to one of the 2 conditions: experimental (treatment) or control (non-treatment) * every particpant from the random sampling has an equal chance of being assigned to either condition

Question 28

How is a study ‘replicated’ and why?

Answer 28

repeats a research study with *different* participants, to see whether the *basic findings* can be obtained again

Question 29

An experiment manipulates the ____ variable by setting up 2 conditions: the ________ condition, and it's comparison, called the ____ condition.

Answer 29

* independent * experimental ("treatment-present" condition) * control ("treatment-absent" condition) Manipulates these variable in a **controlled fashion**...so that the effectiveness of their influence on the other variables can be seen. BUT, so controlled that it might not be applicable to the real world. | Control needed as comparison to evaluate the effect of treatment

Question 30

In an experiment, this variable is being manipulated and studied, and this variable changes in response to this manipulation

Answer 30

* **Independent**: also called exposure variable, control variable, explanatory variable, manipulated variable. * **Dependent**: also called outcome variable, controlled variable, explained variable, response variable.

Question 31

Define 'random assignment'

Answer 31

In an experiment, assigning participants to experimental and control conditions **by chance**. Why? To minimize **pre-existing differences** between the different groups | To control for other relevant factors, such as confounding variables

Question 32

In a **double-blind procedure**, which group is unaware of the assigned conditions of the experiment: participants or researchers? Why?

Answer 32

**both** **groups** This double-blind procedure prevents ppl's beliefs and attitudes from affecting the results (placebo effect) because neither group knows who got the placebo. This way, only the **results** will show the effectiveness of the real treatment (and not the placebo effect)

Question 33

What is the difference between a 'placebo effect' and a 'placebo'?

Answer 33

**Placebo effect** refers any change in a participants behaviour due to them expecting something to occur, rather than the independent variable causing any effect A **Placebo** is something that is false/fake/ineffective but it's given to the participant as a real treatment. The *control condition* often includes this treatment.

Question 34

Define 'correlation'

Answer 34

A statistical measure of the **strength** of the relationship between 2 variables Correlations can provide predictions because they show how these 2 variables are related (+ or -), but they can't prove it, only indicate the possibility of a cause & effect relationship. **Ex**: mental illness correlates with smoking, meaning that people with mental illness are more likely to smoke. But this correlation doesn't explain the **cause** of the mental illness or the smoking. | predict the **possibility** of cause-and-effect, *but not prove them*! ## Footnote *Again*: correlational research helpful for showing relationships, **but it doesn't explain them**

Question 35

Define 'correlation coefficient'

Answer 35

'r' * a precise **numerical** relationship between 2 variables (Called **regression** when 1 variable is used to predict another variable -- the '*predictor*' and the '*outcome*' variable. and r is the **effect size** * between -1 and +1 * Can make better predictions with the higher r-value! | I would have to be paid to memorize this formula...

Question 36

What then is binomial **effect size** display?

Answer 36

Shows the odds of picking a favourable outcome improves if there is a correlation between a 'predictor' variable and a 'outcome' variable ex. **Two variables**: foot size vs. reading ability Likelyhood of choosing a child with above average reading ability? 50% Above average foot size? also 50% because there are 2 variables. **BUT r = 0.3**The strength of the relationship. **Now, do this**: 0.3 x 100 divided by 1/2 = 15 Now what are the **odds** with the r=0.3 used? Subtract it from the *below average* of the predictor. Add it to the *above average* of the predictor. Do the opposite calculation with the outcome. The odds of choosing an above average is now 65%

Question 37

This type of correlation will show a **high** score on variable A and also a **high** score on variable B

Answer 37

positive

Question 38

This type of correlation will tend to show variable A with **high** scores and **low** scores on variable B

Answer 38

negative

Question 39

This type of correlation will show **no apparent relationship** between variable A or B and high scores on one variable could correlate with high **or** low scores on the other.

Answer 39

no correlation | r-value will be around 0

Question 40

What is an **illusory** correlation?

Answer 40

Perceiving a relationship where none exists or perceiving a stronger-than-actual relationship [Correlations make clear the relationships between variables (that we might overlook), BUT they also prevent falsely observing nonexistent relationships.]

Question 41

Good vocab to quickly go over and recall-->

Answer 41

| Directly from Achieve website

Question 42

What is the statistical phenomenom called **regression toward the mean** ?

Answer 42

The tendency for extremely high, extremely low, or very unusual scores/events to **return** (regress) to the **average** scores/events **Ex**: Gamblers may score a very lucky (and high) dice roll and correlate that roll with a certain action they did, such as throwing the dice a certain way (illusory correlation), but no, it was simply a chance roll that scored high. ## Footnote Failure to recognize this type of regression is a source of many superstitions

Question 43

What is random sampling used for?

Answer 43

Helps researchers generalise from a small set of survey responses to a larger population

Question 44

Good summary table to quickly recall--> of **Comparing Research Methods**

Answer 44

Question 45

Consistency of measuring /repeating the experiment is known as ...

Answer 45

Reliability

Question 46

When the test actually measures what the experiment wanted to measure is known as...

Answer 46

Validity

Question 47

Pictorial representation of Scientific Method--

Answer 47

Study this well!

Question 48

Define the study of Psychology

Answer 48

Basically, the *scientific study* of **how** we think, feel, and behave the study of fundamental issues concerning human experience, but psychologists use the **methods of the natural sciences** to understand these psychological phenomena There are 'themes' of psychology (philosophy & humanities) and 'methods' of psychology (natural science)

Question 49

People who are 'producers' of psychological research do these 2 main things

Answer 49

1. **Scientific Method** is used to try to answer Q's about the human condition 2. Do lots of work such as **making observations, reviewing research, conducting studies, & publishing research findings**

Question 50

People who are 'consumers' of psychological research do these 2 things..

Answer 50

1. Read psychological findings 2. Understanding themselves and others, and maybe apply their reading to themselves

Question 51

What is the Theory-Data cycle? | Another version of it below:

Answer 51

Question 52

Difference between a **model** or a **law**?

Answer 52

A **Model** is like a theory (broad in scope) but it's quite specific and concrete ex: a flowchart or a math formula E = H x D x K A **Law** is a statement that has been established beyond a doubt with strong empirical evidence (it can be changed though!)

Question 53

What is the difference between a **concept** or a **construct**? | What are 2 things they want to know between these two things?

Answer 53

Concepts are more **abstract** Constructs are usually used by psychologists instead of the word concept, to refer to explanatory tools that help scientists to make sense of phenomena(observations). Uses the term **construct** to refer to entities of importance because psychologists tend to see **concepts as 'constructed'**. Ultimately, want to know : 1. **how** they are related 2. **why** they are related

Question 54

What is the difference between **Operational Definition** & a **Variable**

Answer 54

**Operational Definition**: specifies HOW we are going to observe and measure our concepts/constructs. **Variables** (can be different values at different times) are created after a study has been operationally defined. (concept --> operational variable) 'the scientific meaning of a concept or construct is precisely how it has been operationalised' Ex: IF the Yerkes-Dodson Law is correct, THEN we predict '**focused**' participants should outperform '**bored**' ones, as well as '**stressed**' participants on a task (this is how the experiment has been 'defined')

Question 55

Difference between **conceptual** **domain** and **empirical domain**?

Answer 55

* **Conceptual Domain** = conceptual, broad, abstract **ex**: theories, models, laws, hypothesis, concepts, constructs * **Empirical Domain** = observable, specific, concrete **ex**: operational definitions, variables, research designs, data, stats

Question 56

A good example of the Theory-Data Cycle: **Harry Harlow** demonstrated and solved this debate -->

Answer 56

Settled the debate over HOW infants become attached to their parents. 1. **Contact-Comfort** Theory = baby is attached to the parents b/c of comfort and security given 2. **Cupboard-Love** Theory = baby is attached to the parents b/c of food given **Outcome**: Harry Harlow designed an experiment where there were fake mothers made of wire, and one was wrapped in cloth (hypothesis) and the other gave milk. Hypothesis was supported with the baby monkey preferring the cloth wire-monkey.

Question 57

What are the 3 general 'research designs'?

Answer 57

1. **Descriptive** (case study, survey, naturalistic observations) 2. **Correlational** 3. **Experimental** | Use #1 & #2 for the HOW, and use #3 for the WHY

Question 58

What is an **operational definition** and why is this important?

Answer 58

**How** a scientist is going to manipulate & measure those variables. They are '**defining the operation**' in question. **ex:** Can operationalize the **independent variable** by having participants smoke weed (experimental group) or not smoke weed (control group). Or could have them eat a magic brownie or a magic candy. OR could operationalize the **dependent variable** by having them drive in a simulator and see how many things they drive into. This operational definition is important because different **operationalizations** could give different outcomes! and other scientists need to be able to replicate the experiment and need to know EXACTLY how it was done.

Question 59

Define the **p-value** of an experiment?

Answer 59

P-value represents the **statistical significance** -- it's the observed difference that is so large that it's unlikely to have come about by chance. It's the **likehood** that this **observed difference** could be **chance**. Standard in psychology is LESS than **0.05** (5%). = "There is less than a 5% chance that the difference they observed came from chance." If this is the case, they can **claim** statistical significance... meaning the **treatment worked** (weed impaired driving performance) ex: p-value < 0.05. The smaller, the better!

Question 60

What then is the **practical significance**?

Answer 60

Just a researcher has a statistically significant result, doesn't mean that it has any practical significance. ex: a study might be done on a pill that could improve IQ, but after 6 months, there's only a 2 point increase. Is this a practical, applicable real-worl difference? No. It lacks practical significance.

Question 61

What is **Cohen's d** measurement?

Answer 61

It's the **statistical measurement** between 2 means in an experiment. The number represent **how far apart** the means are in standard deviation units (how much do they overlap?) Allows comparison between any 2 units regardless of units Cohen's d **increases**, space between them **increases** ex: **Cohen's d increases**: the treatment (weed) has more and more of an effect on some outcome variable (collisions)

Question 62

What is **Pearson's r** a measure of?

Answer 62

quantifies the strength of a relationship between 2 quantitative variables (ex: height and weight) or between a dichotomized variable (weed vs. no weed) and a quantitative variable (# of collisions). Called **point biserial**. As Pearson's r increases, more accurate predictions can be made between the two variables.