Week1 Flashcards
Define hindsight bias
the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that I would have foreseen it. Once the outcome becomes ‘familiar’, it becomes obvious.
ex: after an election or a war, the outcome only then seems obvious, but no one can predict the future.
ex. Dear Diary, Today the Hundred Years War began. (no, no one predicted when or how long it would have lasted, until after it was done)
aka “I-knew-it-all-along phenomenom”
Common sense is not ‘wrong’ - but it is useful for describing what has happened, instead of what will happen.
Define Overconfidence
(2nd common flaw in commonsense thinking)
Tending to think we know more than we do.
ex: given a puzzle or a problem with the answer directly beside it gives us overconfidence because we think we would have solved it quickly. In reality, it would have taken a lot longer, without the answer beside the puzzle
Only about 2% of people are ‘superforecasters’ of behaviour, after they have collected data, facts, looked at various arguments, and then settled on an answer. Most experts are only accurate 40% of the time!
“No woman in my time will be PM” - M. Thatcher, 1969 (PM in Britain in 1979)
Define ‘Perceiving Order in Random Events’
(3rd common flaw in commonsense thinking)
The tendency to see a picture, sound, or a pattern that really isn’t there. Why? to make sense of random or unpredictable events.
ex: seeing a face on the moon
ex: thinking that satanic messages are in music played backwards
ex: seeing a pattern or message in random data
Define ‘post-truth’
2017 Oxford English Dictionary word-of-the-year
in modern culture, whereby ppl’s emotions and personal beliefs often override their acceptance of objective facts
This is strengthened by 4 things:
1. False News (spreads faster, farther, and deeper than truth)
2. Repetition (hearing news multiple times)
3. Powerful Examples (seeing vivid, graphic, gory, detailed pictures of events, overestimating our belief that it will happen to us)
4. Like-minded with Like-minded: birds of a feather flock together and strengthen their opinions together by only socialising with like-minded ppl
Define Scientific Method
a process that evaluates ideas with observation and analysis
ex: a theory is submitted, a prediction is tested by gathering data, and if it’s supported by data (good), and if it’s not, it’s revised or rejected
Define Theory
A statement of:
- How concepts & constructs relate to each other
(and this is done to..)
- organizing and predicting behaviours/events that are testable and explain phenomena
A good theory includes the above AND stimulate further research.
ex: Freudian Theory = uses constructs such as id, ego, and superego to organise & explain an array of abnormal/normal behaviours (based on scant evidence)
ex: Big Five Theory of Personality = appeals to these 5 constructs in order to organize & describe our differences in thinking, feeling, & acting, such as:
- Openness to experience
- Conscientiousness
- Extraversion
- Agreeableness
- Neuroticism
(based on extensive evidence)
like an idea that explains behaviours or events
Define Hypothesis
Inside a good theory, there must be a testable predictions
hypothesis = prediction (IF, THEN…if this is true, then we should expect to observe the stated relationship)
ex: IF the Yerkes-Dodson Law is correct, THEN we predict ‘focused’ participants should outperform ‘bored’ ones, as well as ‘stressed’ participants on a task
These predictions also state which results would support it and which results would disconfirm it
Why is ‘replication’ of a study so important?
- it means the basic findings can be reproduced
- confidence in the results increases
- it confirms the original results
- original results are more reliable
What is meta-analysis?
a statistical procedure for analyzing the results of multiple studies to show an overall conclusion
combines the results of many studies
Define case study
(1 of 3 descriptive methods)
when 1 individual or a group is studied in depth
ex: studies patients who all have brain damage
ex: studies of serial killers (the ‘MacDonald’ or ‘serial killer’ triad: tortures animals, starts fires, wets the bed)
! Since case studies involve only 1 person or a group of people, it may not always reveal general principles that are applicable to the whole population.
Cons: can be misleading because can’t be replicated & run the risk of overgeneralizing
Pros: show what can happen, provides insight into possible future studies and research, memorable and good stories to observe and describe behaviour
Define Naturalistic Observation
(2 of 3 descriptive methods)
A descriptive technique: observing and recording behaviour in naturally occuring situations without manipulating/controlling it
ex: observing kids in a cafeteria
ex: using big data to analyse, from phone apps, social media, Google searches
ex: Psychologist Edward Tronik spent time with the Efe ppl in Zaire observing that they use multiple communal caregivers for their kids
Cons & Pros: doesn’t explain behaviour - describes it. Why does it occur?
A snapshot of everyday life, with no controlled variables
Define a Survey
(3 of 3 Descriptive techniques)
Another type of descriptive technique whereby surveys are used to get self-reported behaviours/attitudes/opinions of a certain group. (a random sampling of a group)
ex: baby boomers had 2x the sex than do millenials, as they report it
ex: 68% of people on Earth say that religion is important in their lives
Cons: ppl can shade their answers to a more socially desirable direction, such as how much they actually smoke. Need to use the right wording. Lastly, need to ask the ‘right’ group (a random sampling of a representative group that actually represents the population)
Pros: gets consciously held attitudes and beliefs
An in-depth observation of a small group or a single individual is an example of which research method?
1. Experimental
2. Naturalistic
3. Case Study
4. Survey
Case Study
Manipulation of the experiment means:
1. participants are divided into groups by the researcher to minimize random assignment
2. Results of other experiments can’t be replicated by other researchers
3. All variables have been controlled, except for the one being tested.
4. Only the person running the experiment knows which is the control and experiment groups
All variables have been controlled, except for the one being tested.
If different researchers get consistent results from testing a hypothesis, the results are said to be:
1. manually assigned
2. reliable
3. valid
4. manipulated
Reliable
A and B may not be causally related because both may be causally dependent on C. This is known as:
1. matched assignment
2. the third variable problem
3. manipulation
4. random assignment
the 3rd variable problem
Random Assignment is important in an experiment because:
1. the 2 groups will be different enough that the 3rd variable problem will be eliminated
2. participants will not know the parameters of the experiment
3. the 2 groups will be the same on average for all variables
4. participants can opt into the group they want
the two groups will be the same on average for all variables
If you find a correlational relationship between two variables:
1. you can determine causation after you manipulate the experiment
2. the 3rd variable problem will be resolved
3. you can determine the causation
4. you know nothing about the causal relationship between the 2 variables
you know nothing about the causal relationship between the 2 variables
Which is a better hypothesis?
1. Humans will be faster than humans who haven’t had caffeine.
2. Humans given caffeine will navigate a maze faster than adult humans not given caffeine.
Humans given caffeine will navigate a maze faster than adult humans not given caffeine.
In order to generate findings about causation, researchers must use ____ research.
1. experimental
2. naturalistic
3. correlational
4. observational
experimental
To discover cause & effect relationships, experiments are conducted. Random assignment is used to minimize confounding variables such as pre-existing differences among the participants (experimental group & control group). The independent variable is the thing that is manipulated by the experimenter in order to study it’s effect. The experimenter than measures the dependent variable to discover changes due to the manipulations. A double-blind procedure may be done to avoid the placebo effect.
What is the only thing correlations can provide?
predict the possibility of cause-and-effect, but not prove them
NO causal relationships between variables discovered!
Case studies do not allow for ____?
1. operationalization
2. memorable results
3. replication
4. individual observation
replication
In this procedure, the experimenter does not know if a participant is in the control group or if they are in the experimental group?
1. double-blind
2. confounding
3. placebo
4. experimental
double-blind
____ variables are outside factors in an experiment that may skew the results:
1. observational
2. confounding
3. independent
4. dependent
Confounding: gives alternative explanation/results for an experiment.
Object of an experiment is to prove A causes B. The confound causes change in B.
ex: participants who smoked weed did hit more pedestrians and they were less cheerful. Can’t say that the weed caused the bad mood AND the hitting of more pedestrians. Mood is the confound.
A good reason to use ‘random assignment’!
What is random sampling?
When access to an entire population is limited or impractical, but we want data from it, a sample (a part) of the population is accessed instead. This random sampling of people should represent the entire population, and every member of the population should have an equal change of being included in the sample. (not every characteristic can be represented, maybe gender, skin colour, and diversity but more than this –> why random sampling is used)
In a double-blind procedure, which group is unaware of the assigned conditions of the experiment: participants or researchers?
Why?
both groups
This double-blind procedure prevents ppl’s beliefs and attitudes from affecting the results (placebo effect) because neither group knows who got the placebo. This way, only the results will show the effectiveness of the real treatment (and not the placebo effect)
Define ‘correlation’
A statistical measure of the strength of the relationship between 2 variables
Correlations can provide predictions because they show how these 2 variables are related (+ or -), but they can’t prove it, only indicate the possibility of a cause & effect relationship.
Ex: mental illness correlates with smoking, meaning that people with mental illness are more likely to smoke. But this correlation doesn’t explain the cause of the mental illness or the smoking.
predict the possibility of cause-and-effect, but not prove them!
Again: correlational research helpful for showing relationships, but it doesn’t explain them
Define ‘correlation coefficient’
‘r’
* a precise numerical relationship between 2 variables (Called regression when 1 variable is used to predict another variable – the ‘predictor’ and the ‘outcome’ variable. and r is the effect size
* between -1 and +1
* Can make better predictions with the higher r-value!
I would have to be paid to memorize this formula…
What then is binomial effect size display?
Shows the odds of picking a favourable outcome improves if there is a correlation between a ‘predictor’ variable and a ‘outcome’ variable
ex. Two variables: foot size vs. reading ability
Likelyhood of choosing a child with above average reading ability? 50% Above average foot size? also 50% because there are 2 variables.
BUT r = 0.3The strength of the relationship.
Now, do this: 0.3 x 100 divided by 1/2 = 15
Now what are the odds with the r=0.3 used?
Subtract it from the below average of the predictor.
Add it to the above average of the predictor.
Do the opposite calculation with the outcome.
The odds of choosing an above average is now 65%
This type of correlation will show a high score on variable A and also a high score on variable B
positive
This type of correlation will tend to show variable A with high scores and low scores on variable B
negative
This type of correlation will show no apparent relationship between variable A or B and high scores on one variable could correlate with high or low scores on the other.
no correlation
r-value will be around 0
Good vocab to quickly go over and recall–>
Directly from Achieve website
Good summary table to quickly recall–>
of Comparing Research Methods
Pictorial representation of Scientific Method–
Study this well!
What is the Theory-Data cycle?
Another version of it below:
Difference between a model or a law?
A Model is like a theory (broad in scope) but it’s quite specific and concrete
ex: a flowchart or a math formula
E = H x D x K
A Law is a statement that has been established beyond a doubt with strong empirical evidence (it can be changed though!)
What is the difference between a concept or a construct?
What are 2 things they want to know between these two things?
Concepts are more abstract
Constructs are usually used by psychologists instead of the word concept, to refer to explanatory tools that help scientists to make sense of phenomena(observations).
Uses the term construct to refer to entities of importance because psychologists tend to see concepts as ‘constructed’.
Ultimately, want to know :
1. how they are related
2. why they are related
A good example of the Theory-Data Cycle: Harry Harlow demonstrated and solved this debate –>
Settled the debate over HOW infants become attached to their parents.
1. Contact-Comfort Theory = baby is attached to the parents b/c of comfort and security given
2. Cupboard-Love Theory = baby is attached to the parents b/c of food given
Outcome: Harry Harlow designed an experiment where there were fake mothers made of wire, and one was wrapped in cloth (hypothesis) and the other gave milk. Hypothesis was supported with the baby monkey preferring the cloth wire-monkey.
Define the p-value of an experiment?
P-value represents the statistical significance – it’s the observed difference that is so large that it’s unlikely to have come about by chance. It’s the likehood that this observed difference could be chance.
Standard in psychology is LESS than 0.05 (5%). = “There is less than a 5% chance that the difference they observed came from chance.” If this is the case, they can claim statistical significance… meaning the treatment worked (weed impaired driving performance)
ex: p-value < 0.05. The smaller, the better!
