Week 8 Lecture I

Question 1

Vast numbers of people in rapidly growing cities throughout the developing world depend on

Answer 1

informal transport services for their mobility needs. Thus far the field of transition studies has
addressed the dynamics of socio-technical change in situations where regimes of automobility
and sanctioned public transport constitute the dominant order, but not in contexts of cities in
the developing world, where informal transit thrives

Question 2

e evolution of Bangkok’s motorcycle taxi industry

Answer 2

, we trace
the evolution of Bangkok’s motorcycle taxi industry including recent efforts to introduce a
potentially radical innovation: an information and communications technology (ICT) platform
used as a taximeter

Question 3

questions about an informal transport system

Answer 3

How should we conceive of these systems in the
wider context of urban transport, sustainability and sustaining urban mobility? Does it make
sense to make concerted efforts to introduce new technologies for systems at the margin, which
are not on the receiving end of government support or funding, but rather on the receiving end
of government scorn and repression? Is the provision of transport by many small – often old and
polluting – vehicles a carbon-inefficient way to move millions and a barrier for city governments
to implement ‘proper’ CO2-saving large-scale public transport systems? Is there no viable future
for these systems in this era of globalisation and are they destined to ‘die out’as developing-world
cities modernise, or are these informal systems a form of locally rooted appropriate technology to
be encouraged and applauded as possibly giving rise to alternative flourishing pathways to social
and environmental sustainability, and will they perhaps even expand to find a place in first-world
cities as well?

Question 4

s emerging research

agenda is the field of

Answer 4

A promising field of research to address these questions and to pick-up this emerging research agenda is the field of transition studies. The community of scholars working in this field draws on insights from a broad range of disciplines, such as evolutionary economics, science and technology studies (STS), innovation systems and the history of technology, in order to investigate the
dynamics of change and stability in the way societal functions (such as transport provision) are fulfilled. Transitions are conceived as major shifts in socio-technical systems and this implies the re-configuration
of system elements including technologies, policies, infrastructures, industry structures, markets, user practices, cultural meanings and various forms of knowledge (

Question 5

The term ‘informal’1 best reflects this

situation:

Answer 5

casually disguised by lack of supervision and hidden in the background of both the
officially sanctioned public sector and the registered/formal market economy

Question 6

Most authorities in cities throughout the developing world can barely cope with

Answer 6

h the rapid
urban growth driven by the massive influx of new urban dwellers and are barely able to maintain
existing transport services, let alone plan for expansion in order to come to terms with the fastincreasing demand for transit (Kumar and Barrett 2008). As a result, diverse arrays of unregulated
(shared) taxi-like transport systems have organically sprung up without any centrally coordinated
planning.

Question 7

. Three processes

are considered to be key for the potential of experiments to contribute to broader transformations:

Answer 7

(1) articulating promising expectations to attract resources; (2) building resourceful networks and
constituencies around the innovation; and (3) reflexive learning on multiple dimensions.

Question 8

Moreover, informal transport provision can be viewed

Answer 8

as part of a subversive
domain, deeply linked to the presence of historically disadvantaged groups of people and the influx
of poor rural dwellers. Other case studies show, for example, how rickshaw pullers challenge
hegemonic ideas and practices in order to negotiate a ‘place’ in the city (Hyrapiet and Greiner
2012) or how the use of minibuses gained popularity as a community resistance response to state
power (Venter 2013).

Question 9

how many bicycles in Bangkok

Answer 9

Every day, around 200,000 motorcycle taxi drivers operate on Bangkok’s vast network of broad
arterial roads and labyrinthine alleyways. This number for Bangkok alone is approaching the total
annual number of taxi rides in the whole of the USA (239,000 in 2012).

Question 10

Most locations

can only be accessed via long narrow side roads

Answer 10

s (soi), which emerged without any central planning. It is virtually impossible to serve this network of thin winding alleyways by means of any
public transport mode except with small vehicles. The motorcycle taxi can adequately navigate
traffic jams and narrow alleys in order to meet the increased demand for movement better than
any other mode

Question 11

flock to Bangkok for work and opportunity

Answer 11

The motorcycle taxi profession provides such opportunity for young uneducated males; it is one of the few
relatively well-paying jobs open to these marginalised migrants

Question 12

In recent years, however, a number of efforts to ‘formalise the informal’ have been undertaken.

Answer 12

To keep mafia control from creeping back, Bangkok’s
municipal government fitted the drivers with personally registered homogenised orange vests. The
House of Representatives passed a bill that officially changed the organisation of the sector and its
legal standing. Thailand became the first country in the world to legalise such a large motorcycle
taxi force and the drivers hailed Thaksin as their saviour (Int. 38). The legacy of these measures is
that the regime now ‘looks’ more formal, but in reality only about half of the drivers are actually
officially registered and ‘while lauding state attempts to wipe out dark influence and regulate the
motorcycle taxi business, taxi motorcyclists say authorities are always one step behind racketeers’

Question 13

An interesting next step would be to investigate how the West could learn from cities in
the developing world

Answer 13

in order to incorporate some of the advantages of these highly responsive,
self-organising, flexible, resilient and robust systems – elements which are also present in the
envisioned smart and sustainable systems that mobility transition scholars argue for (Geels et al.
2012).

Question 14

In our view, this implied the need to bring to the fore

the livelihoods for those at the margins of society in the context of (sustainable) development;

Answer 14

the
informal hierarchies stabilising day-to-day practice in informal economies; and the strategic work
performed as part and parcel of (entrepreneurial) interventions

Question 15

geography and landscape matters

Answer 15

In addition to power, geography
also matters and we tried to show in particular how the spatial scales of the street, the city, the
nation-state and the international community interacted to produce the particular location, form
and outcome of the experiment

Question 16

mobility is a

Answer 16

basic human right and informal transport systems do provide access for the urban
masses and job opportunities for the poor. In some cities, informal operations are the only transit
options available and in other cities they patch together a broader collection of public transport
systems and contribute to the package of multi-modality geared to stymie the relentless rise of the
private motorcar

Question 17

The transport sector revolution has been spurred on by three major trends in the past few years:

Answer 17

the electrification of mobility, the integration of artificial intelligence and big data in shared transport solutions and autonomous mobility.
The electric vehicle (EV) transition is an example of a socio-technical transition happening in major economies such as China, Norway and the US.

Question 18

CLD

Answer 18

Sterman [14] says that Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) are
an important tool for representing the feedback structure of systems. A CLD consists of variables connected by arrows denoting the causal influence among the variables.

Question 19

Figure 2

Answer 19

The Figure 2 presents the initial Mobility loop, which is
constructed as a balancing loop. For simplicity’s sake the Demand for mobility is thought of as increasing the Met demand for mobility, which decreases the Unmet demand for mobility, which in turn leads to Demand for mobility. Since these three variables are connected in a loop, and of thethree links, two are reinforcing links, and one is a balancing link, this loop is a balancing loop. From herein, balancing links (negative polarity) are given in red color, while reinforcing links are given in blue color, in addition to the
polarity signs.

Question 20

Figure 3

Answer 20

in text

Question 21

Figure 4

Answer 21

in text

Question 22

Figure 5

Answer 22

in text

Question 23

Figure 6

Answer 23

final CLD

Question 24

An inductive analysis of the CLDs constructed in the

previous sections lead us to frame a categorization which consists of four categories

Answer 24

namely economic factors; social

factors, policy factors and technological factors.

Question 25

Economic factors

Answer 25

The relative profitability of EVs definitely influence the
using of EVs to satisfy the personal transport demand in Thailand. In addition to that, the cost of fossil fuel vehicles, along with the tax-related costs, and the running costs also influence the use of EVs, which in turn influence the benefits through the use of energy and the emissions of GHGs, in the EV transition. Economic factors are also important in the infrastructure development which is important for the use of EVs and the use of other renewable fuel vehicles as well. Economic factors also influence the cost of electricity, especially the cost of renewable power generation and at a country-level, also influence the funding available for research
and development.

Question 26

social factors

Answer 26

The social factors are myriad, and they have not been
explicitly modelled in the constructed CLDs in this study. But, some identified factors and variables can indeed be categorized as social factors. The average distance travelled by personal vehicles is a mix of social and technological factors, along with the awareness of EVs. Also, while the cost of running the different vehicles is an economic factor, how much relative profitability is needed is a social factor. In this study, social factors do have relatively less importance than the other three categories of factors. That is also because social factors tend to be at the boundary of generalized and individualized choice comparisons, and in a generalized study with a wide scope such as what we have undertaken here, it is difficult to take into account the myriad social factors.

Question 27

policy factors

Answer 27

The policy factors definitely play an important part in the benefits that EV transitions can have. There should be a clear and distinct policy to decarbonize the power sector, in addition to promoting the EV transition through better infrastructure and research and development. At the same time, policy factors can also try to achieve the benefits by other means as well. For example, policies to encourage public transport, and policies to disincentivize fossil fuels are also important inachieving energy and GHG emission benefits, even without the EV transition in Thailand. Also, given the popularity of hybrid cars in Thailand, may be better energy efficiency standards can also achieve the same energy and GHG benefits without requiring the intensive changes in infrastructure that is
needed for the EV transition.

Question 28

technological factors

Answer 28

The technological factors are also limiting factors in terms of energy and GHG emissions benefits in the Thai transport sector. The efficiency limits of the vehicles, especially the fossil fuel and renewable fuel vehicles, and the range limits of
EVs reduce the energy savings benefits. These definitely also influence the benefits of the EV transitions as well.

Question 29

At the same time, the same
energy and emission reductions can also be achieved through
other complementary means as well.

Answer 29

Exploring ways of encouraging people to use the public transport, decreasing the distance travelled though motorized private transport, especially fossil fuel vehicle travel, and increasing the cost of fossil fuel vehicle travel also increases the benefits, with or without the EV transition

Question 30

Technological diffusion can be understood as

Answer 30

a broader process of co-construction of technology

and its environment

Question 31

societal

embedding,

Answer 31

in which new technologies find their place in wider societal domains, which include
immediate user contexts, cultural meanings, policies, and infrastructures.

Question 32

This perspective helps

address three under-developed dimensions in adoption models:

Answer 32

(1) diffusion includes more actors
than users/adopters,
(2) user characteristics and environments are not known in advance, but are articulated during the technological diffusion process,
(3) societal embedding is full of choices and struggles that affect the directionality and thus shape of socio-technical systems.
Societal embedding therefore calls importance to the “demand side” of sustainability transitions.

Question 33

automobility

Answer 33

defined as the global system supporting privately owned and used, fossil fuel powered passenger vehicles

Question 34

Basic elements and resources of socio-technical systems

Answer 34

figure 1

Question 35

have identified various drivers and barriers of technological diffusion

Answer 35

, often in the form of lists of factors such
as price/performance improvements, information availability, or attitudes and motivations, in addition to upfront investments, access to capital, or government policies (e.g. subsidies, taxes, standards, regulations).

Question 36

Such a system represents a configuration of actors

Answer 36

(their knowledge and skills), technologies (products,
infrastructures), and institutions (regulations, cultural symbols, markets) fulfilling a societal function such as mobility or comfort

Question 37

technological diffusion can thus be understood as

Answer 37

a process of co-construction of the
entire configuration of socio-technical systems, including the focal technology and the environments in which it will function

Question 38

The societal embedding framework maintains that the

Answer 38

diffusion of innovations includes not only adoption and purchase, but also embedding in, and construction of, broader social domains. The process of societal embedding can be conceptualized as a dynamic
alignment process between the innovation and its environments. In other words: “Technology adoption is an active process, with elements of innovation in itself. (…) Behaviours, organization and society have to re-arrange themselves to adopt, and adapt to, the
novelty.

Question 39

societal embedding framework and initially distinguished three domains

Answer 39

a business environment (industry structures, markets),

a policy environment (formal rules, regulations), and

a cultural environment (cultural discourses, norms, social acceptance),

user environment (user routines, beliefs, skills, and practices).

Question 40

Embedding in user environments

Answer 40

goes beyond purchase activities, involving the integration of new technologies into user practices
and the development of new preferences, routines, habits and even values (Gram-Hanssen, 2008). The user environment also extends beyond adopters (in this case drivers of cars) to include other actors related to the automobility system such as cyclists or pedestrians, police officers, car salespersons, government and urban planners, and even writers for the mass media (to name some). Social historians of technology (Nye, 1990; Fischer, 1992; De la Bruheze and Oldenziel, 2008) have shown that new technologies need to be “domesticated” and transformed from unfamiliar and possibly threatening things to familiar objects embedded in the routines and practices of everyday life. The literature on domestication (Silverstone and Hirsch, 1992; Lie and
Sørensen, 1996) suggests that this involves three sub-processes: cognitive work, which includes learning about the artefact and the development of new competencies; symbolic work, which refers to sense-making and the articulation of new interpretive categories; practical work, in which users adjust everyday routines and practical considerations. These processes resonate with social
practice theory, which also suggest that appropriation of new technologies involves changes in meanings, competencies, and
material elements (Shove et al., 2012).

Question 41

Embedding in the business environment

Answer 41

t refers to the development of industries, business models, supply and distribution chains, and
repair facilities. If innovations are pioneered by new entrants, widespread diffusion may lead to the downfall of established firms (Christensen, 1997) or to the reorientation of incumbents

Question 42

. Cultural embedding

Answer 42

refers to the articulation of positive discourses, narratives, and visions that enhance cultural legitimacy and societal acceptance of new technologies (Geels and Verhees, 2011). Positive cultural discourses (and perhaps negative cultural discourses about existing technology) are important for diffusion, because they can influence consumer preferences, expectations,
political support, and access to financial resources (

Question 43

. Regulatory embedding

Answer 43

refers to the variety of policies that shape production, markets and use of new technologies, e.g. safety
regulations, reliability standards, adoption subsidies, demonstration projects, and infrastructure investment programs.Substantial policy changes—especially shocks and discontinuities—can also affect the regulatory environment, and usually entail power struggles, making technology diffusion and new system creation deeply political processes

Question 44

. Embedding in the transnational community

Answer 44

refers to the creation of shared understanding in a community of experts related to new
technologies that transcends the borders of a single place, often a country. This transnational community serves as an arena for mutual learning, exchange of experience, consultation and negotiation, and consensus-formation about different standards (this
has been argued from a transnational history perspective see and for sustainability transitions

Question 45

The negative environmental impacts of electric mobility

Answer 45

may be especially acute when EVs do not substitute for

conventional cars, and are adopted merely as an additional second or third car (

Question 46

Tesla’s innovation

Answer 46

is thus in the fuel source (electricity rather than petroleum) but not ownership (which remains private), design (it “looks” like a conventional car), and ridership (which is frequently framed as individual, rather than open to ride-sharing). This contrasts with other types of electric vehicles, such as the TH!NK City or Buddy, which consumers depicted as
“boring,” “ugly,” and “feminine”

Question 47

The future embedding of the EVs will not happen in a vacuum.

Answer 47

. Instead this process continues to be shaped by deeper historical assumptions about the current mobility system that crystallized iteratively over the 20th century, such as its widespread reliance on
individual privately-owned vehicles (leading to under-utilization of vehicle capacity), user preference for long-distance driving capability (despite the fact that most trips are quite short), the continuing status of the car as a luxury item (think of the Tesla Roadster), or the passive role of the user (software by producers dictating the terms of use of the car)

Question 48

When put into the context of emerging contemporary innovations (such as battery electric vehicles), we suggest that policy should

Answer 48

focus more robustly on facilitating societal embedding processes, not just subsidizing battery development or EV purchase.

Question 49

Disadvantages & advantages of informal transport

Answer 49

Traffic Congestion
Air pollution
Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)
Poor Road Safety

"Gap Filler"
More urbanization = more transport needed
Employment
Low Cost
Transport for low income individuals