Week 8 - Judgement and reasoning Flashcards
Attributes substitutions
where we rely on easily assessed information to make an estimate
Availability heuristic
estimate frequency of events using ease with which they come to mind
-often leads to correct estimations, or incorrect due to subjective exposure
Representativeness heuristic
estimate the likelihood of event being in a category using its resemblance with other members of the category
Gamblers fallacy
assumption based off frequency
Covariation
a correlated variation of multiple factors, affected by base rates to assist us with deciding cause & effect.
Base rates
information about how frequently something happens
Type 1 thinking:
fast, easy thinking that is more likely used under time pressure
Type 2 thinking:
slower, more effortful and it more likely to be used in attention and can trigger context cues.
The use of base rates depends on how they are presented:
- Presentation
people are more likely to use base rate information when presented as frequencies than probabilities or proportions
The use of base rates depends on how they are presented:
- Chance & random variation
the we consider the role of chance of random variation we tend to be more accurate
The use of base rates depends on how they are presented:
- Education
the people have more knowledge of the sample size, they have something to compare it against
Confirmation and disconfirmation:
Inductive reasoning approach
a bottom up approach
observation -> pattern -> hypothesis -> theory
e.g., media coverage about shark attacks
Confirmation and disconfirmation:
Deductive Reasoning
a top dow approach
theory -> hypothesis -> observation -> confirmation
e.g., when we conduct psychological experiments
Confirmation bias
more likely to seek confirmatory evidence on face value but interpret disconfirmatory evidence.
Better memory of confirmatory evidence than disconfirmatory evidence.
Failure to consider alternative hypotheses
Belief perseverance
no matter how much disconfirmatory evidence you give them, they’re not changing their beliefs
show signs of confirmation bias / belief perseverance, they’re basically ignoring logic.
