week 5 Flashcards
Describe the decision making process (8 steps)
IIDASIE (it is always dick ass sluts in Egypt)
Identification of the problem
identification of decision criteria
Allocation of weights to criteria
Development of alternatives
Analysis of alternatives
Selection of an alternative
Implementation of the alternative
Evaluation of decision effectiveness
common decision making errors
anchoring effect immediate gratification effect overconfidence bias hindsight bias self-serving sunk costs error randomness bias representation bias availability bias framing bias confirmation bias selective perception bias
See picture in notes
3 approaches in decision making
- Rational Decision making = choices are consistent and value maximising within specified constraints
- Bounded rational Decision making = Decisions are rational within the limits of a manager’s ability to process information (satisfying & escalation of commitment)
- Intrusive Decision Making = Decisions are made on the basis of experience, feelings and accumulated judgments. This can be both rational and bounded decision making
what doe intuitive decision making involve?
expiernce based decisions
values or ethics based decisions
subconscious mental processing
cognitive based decisions
affect initiated decisions
Describe the types of decisions and decision making conditions that managers face:
Types of Managerial Decisions:
Planning:
what are the org’s long term objectives?
what strategies will be best to achieve those/
what should the org short term objectives be
how difficult should individual goals be?
Organising:
How many employers should I have reporting directly to me?
how much centralisation should there be in the organisation?
Leading:
how do i handle employees who appear to be low in motivation
what is the most effective leadership style in a given situation?
Controlling:
what activities in the organisation need to be controlled?
how should these activities be controlled?
what type of management information systems should the organisation have
type of problems
- Structured (clear/familiar)
2. Unstructured (unusual/ambiguous)
type of decisions
- Programmed (procedures, rule policies)
- Non-programmed (unique solution)
see photo 3.4
Decision Making Conditions:
- ) certainty – Can make accurate decisions because all outcomes are known (accounted for)
- ) Risk – Can estimate likelihood of certain outcomes
- ) Uncertainty – Has neither certainty or probability outcomes
How do Managers group Decisions?
Decisions are often made by groups representing the people who will be most affected by those decisions o Committees o Task forces o Review panels o Work teams
Group Decision Making:
Advantages
Advantages: o More complete information o Diversity of experiences/perspectives o More alternative generated o Increased acceptance of solution o Increased legitimacy
group decision making: disadvantages
Disadvantages: o Time-consuming o Minority domination o Ambiguous responsibility o Pressures to conform o Groupthink
what is ‘group think’
When a group exerts extensive pressure on an individual to withhold his or her different views in order to appear in agreement (unison) (what it does, how it occurs and how to minimize it – on slides)
explain improving decision making - make group decisions more creative by
Make group decisions more creative by:
- ) Brainstorming
- ) The nominal group technique
- ) Electronic meetings
edward de bonus 6 thinking hats
the facts - what are the facts
the positives - what are good points?
the problems - what coulee be wrong with this?
the feelings - what do I feel about this?
The new Ideas - What new ideas are possible?
The thinking - what thinking and planning is needed?
Discuss contemporary issues in managerial decision making:
Contemporary issues:
o National culture
o Creativity
o Design Thinking
o Big Data