Week 12 Flashcards
What’s the real meaning of the term BOUNDED RATIONALITY?
That humans reason and choose rationally, but only within the constraints imposed by their limited search and computational capacities
What is the meaning of the term SATISFICING?
Using experience to construct an expectation of how good a solution we might reasonably achieve and halting search as soon as a solution is reached that meets that expectation.
What were the two major findings from Meehl (1954) regrarding clinical and statistical prediction?
- Clinical prediction performs VERY poorly relative to statistical prediction
- Clinical prediction overweights case characteristics and underweights base characteristics
In the context of the two systems approach to cognition, what is meant by QUESTION SUBSTITUTION?
Instead of seeking the answer to a complex question, seek the answer to an easier question you believe to be related.
Name the three general purpose heuristics Geoff talked about?
- Representativeness heuristic
- Availability heuristic
- Affect heuristic
Describe the representativeness heuristic
PROBABILITY judgements are substituted with assessments of RESEMBLANCE
Eg If we’re asked how LIKELY is it that Tom is a computer science student…
we substitute How much does Tom RESEMBLE a computer science student
In terms of biases, what is a CONJUNCTION fallacy?
Hmm can’t put it into words but something to do with Linda being a bank teller and a feminist
In terms of biases, what is INSENSITIVITY TO SAMPLE SIZE ?
The one about hospitals
What is the AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC?
When asked
What percentage of Hollywood celebrities are divorced?
We substitute
How readily to examples of Hollywood divorces come to mind?
What is going on with the bias about the effectiveness of a search set?
The one about how many words have ‘n’ in the last three letters
What is the AFFECT HEURISTIC?
When we’re asked ‘How large are the benefits of nuclear power?’
We substitute…
How do I feel about nuclear power?’
What is the negative risk/benefit correlation bias
What it says on the tin
Think nuclear power example
What is the insensitivity to numbers bias?
The one about how people focused more on the % rather than the # of lives being saved
What is the anchoring heuristic
The African nations one
What heuristic is the CONJUNCTION fallacy bias associated with?
Representativeness heuristic