War and Commitment Problems Flashcards
War
Violence among actors to destroy or coerce
opponents
- Civil (within states).
- International (between states).
- Continuation of policy by other means.
- Clausewitz.
- International conflict: incongruence of interests
between states. - Militarized conflict: militaries get involved.
Fatality Threshold
At least 1,000 battle deaths.
The Prisoner’s Dilemma
Both prisoners end up worse off than if both cooperated.
Commitment Problems
People have a hard time trusting each other and cooperating, this can lead to war
Hand-tying
Creating audience costs so they need to follow through with an action.
Sunk costs
Taking on a cost to signal cooperation
Installment costs
Taking on a cost to signal cooperation
Power Transition Theory
Hegemons rise and fall in predictable ways.
* Hegemons have a “life-cycle.”
* Certain points of the life-cycle are prone to war.
* When declining hegemon is about to be overtaken by rising power.
Misperceptions and War
States want to win the wars they fight.
Misperceptions about capabilities cause war.
Misperceptions Happen
Complexity of calculating chances of winning.
Bad Information
Private information.
Diversionary War
Often “rally” effect following war.
* Leaders facing domestic problems initiate war to
generate public support.
* Based on in-group out-group dynamics.
Contiguity
Neighbours more likely to fight.
* One of the strongest predictors of war.
Groupthink
Adoption of a shared mind-set within small groups.
Territorial Imperative
People will defend there territory instinctively