Theory Flashcards
Variable
Concept with values (e.g., level of democracy)
Dependent Variable
What is to be explained (Y)
Independent Variable
Explanatory factor (X)
Intervening Variable
In between X and Y e.g. (growth democracy conflict)
Antecedent Condition
Factor that modifies relationship between X and Y
Law
An observed regular relationship between two phenomena
Usually no why
Hypothesis
Conjectured relationship
Theory
Relationship with explanation of how X causes Y
Deterministic
Theory works in all possible cases
Probabibalistic
Theory works in most cases
Why Is IR Theory Important?
Theory guides policymakers’ decisions.
Helps us identify bad (and good) policies.
Sound theory can produce sound policy.
Large explanatory power
how much of the key outcome does your
theory explain?
* Range: how many different phenomena are you
explaining?
* How common is the cause?
* DV: death
* IVs: heart disease vs. shark attacks
Parsimonious
Parsimonious
* Simple; few variables
* Unavoidable tradeoff between simplicity and explanatory
power- IR is complex!
Satisfying
Leaves us convinced that it is right.
Clearly Framed
Explain how X -> Y with antecedent conditions
Falsifiable
You know when you’re wrong
Explains Something Important
- What are you explaining?
- Stock prices vs. favorite colors of presidents
Prescriptive
Prescriptive Richness: Useful Recommendations
Tell decision makers what to do
How to Test?
Experimentation
Observation (large-N & case studies)
Randomized
