Theory

Question 1

Variable

Answer 1

Concept with values (e.g., level of democracy)

Question 2

Dependent Variable

Answer 2

What is to be explained (Y)

Question 3

Independent Variable

Answer 3

Explanatory factor (X)

Question 4

Intervening Variable

Answer 4

In between X and Y e.g. (growth  democracy  conflict)

Question 5

Antecedent Condition

Answer 5

Factor that modifies relationship between X and Y

Question 6

Law

Answer 6

An observed regular relationship between two phenomena
Usually no why

Question 7

Hypothesis

Answer 7

Conjectured relationship

Question 8

Theory

Answer 8

Relationship with explanation of how X causes Y

Question 9

Deterministic

Answer 9

Theory works in all possible cases

Question 10

Probabibalistic

Answer 10

Theory works in most cases

Question 11

Why Is IR Theory Important?

Answer 11

Theory guides policymakers’ decisions.
Helps us identify bad (and good) policies.
Sound theory can produce sound policy.

Question 12

Large explanatory power

Answer 12

how much of the key outcome does your
theory explain?
* Range: how many different phenomena are you
explaining?
* How common is the cause?
* DV: death
* IVs: heart disease vs. shark attacks

Question 13

Parsimonious

Answer 13

Parsimonious
* Simple; few variables
* Unavoidable tradeoff between simplicity and explanatory
power- IR is complex!

Question 14

Satisfying

Answer 14

Leaves us convinced that it is right.

Question 15

Clearly Framed

Answer 15

Explain how X -> Y with antecedent conditions

Question 16

Falsifiable

Answer 16

You know when you’re wrong

Question 17

Explains Something Important

Answer 17

• What are you explaining?
• Stock prices vs. favorite colors of presidents
  Prescriptive

Question 18

Prescriptive Richness: Useful Recommendations

Answer 18

Tell decision makers what to do

Question 19

How to Test?

Answer 19

Experimentation

Observation (large-N & case studies)
Randomized