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Question 1

why should we create a formal model for some theory

Answer 1

Formalization in the form of mathematical equations or computer code
- Forces us to be precise (assumptions, scales of variables, relations etc.)
- Demonstrates that predictions really follow from the model
- Detect by-effects (unwanted predictions)
- Prevents misunderstanding

Question 2

Agent-Based Models:

Answer 2

These simulate interactions between individuals (or agents) to explore how simple rules governing individual behaviors can result in complex societal patterns.

Question 3

Ising Model & Voter Models:

Answer 3

These models show how attitudes can align under social pressure and how interactions between agents can lead to societal polarization.

Question 4

Hysteresis in Attitudes:

Answer 4

Hysteresis effect is when more energy is needed to convert to the original state fro the new stable state
. In the context of polarization, it means that once individuals adopt a strong opinion, it’s difficult for them to change back to a more moderate stance, even when presented with counter-information.

Role in Polarization:
Resistance to Change: When someone is deeply involved in a belief, they become resistant to changing their opinion, even if new evidence contradicts it. This resistance makes it hard for individuals to reconsider their views.

Polarization Increase: Because of this resistance, individuals may become more extreme in their beliefs over time, leading to a wider divide between opposing viewpoints. This can create a cycle where groups become increasingly polarized as they reinforce each other’s extreme positions.

In summary, the hysteresis effect contributes to stability in extreme views and difficulty in reaching consensus, thus enhancing polarization within society.The presentation explores how attitudes can be stable over time and resistant to new information, leading to polarization.

Question 5

what is the ising model

Answer 5

Originally model of magnets
- Magnets consists of elements (‘needles’) with spin left or right
- They tend to align with their neighbors and with an external field (tau) if it exists
- This all depends on the temperature,
- Low temperature ‘listen to neighbors’
- High temperature ‘change randomly

Question 6

in what 2 ways is the Ising model used

Answer 6

1. As a model of an individual attitude
2. As a model of polarization

Question 7

explain how is the ising model used as a model of polarisation

Answer 7

• Spins are people (pro/contra)
• Neighborhood is social environment
• External field = external social field
• Temperature = randomness of agents

Question 8

how is the Ising model used as a model of individual attitude

Answer 8

the more involved u get with something the more polarized u are
(attitude changes as cusp catastrophies)
(Formalization: random field Ising model
Inverse temperature = attention)

Question 9

voter model

Answer 9

population of voters (only to positions, yes/no or 1/-1)
- u randomly meet people and you always copy peoples opinion

Question 10

Hegselmann-Krause model

Answer 10

Opinion continuously valued
Talk to a random person
Average opinions - everyonen than agrees and end up at the average oppinion
But homophily (bounded confidence) - Reject interactions with agents that are too dissimilar, then we get
people only interact if their difference in opinions is smaller than the bound, the smaller the bound is the more subgroups in the stimulation

Question 11

what are complex systems

Answer 11

• open systems consisting of many sub-systems that interact nonlinearly
• Various models, tools and techniques have been developed to study such systems
• Applied in physics, chemistry, biology etc.
• Laser, weather, spiral waves, chemical patterns, swarms, ant nests, brains, traffic jams, internet

Question 12

A key observation about complex systems

Answer 12

Behavior in all kinds of complex systems alternates between stable regimes, demarcated by phase transitions

Question 13

cusp

Answer 13

A cusp model shows how small changes can lead to sudden, drastic shifts in behavior or opinions. Attitudes may stay stable for a while but can suddenly flip when external factors like attention or pressure reach a critical point.

Question 14

Interaction assumptions of Networks of networks: simplification using the cusp

Answer 14

1. P(agent selection) depends on involvement (asynchronous update)

2a. Involvement decays
2b. Involvement increases when neighbors interact
3. Averaging information weighted by involvement
4. Opinion updated according to (stochastic) cusp equation

Question 15

Persuasion paradox:

Answer 15

activism may lead to opposition (polarization)
Depends on speed of change in attention (involvement) versus information

Question 16

Involvement dilemma:

Answer 16

High involvement: not sensitive to new information due to hysteresis
Low involvement: (too) easy to persuade (goes where the wind blows)

Question 17

What is the cascade model of attitude change, and how does it explain polarization in society?

Answer 17

The cascading model looks at both individual level and social level, it concives of an individual’s attitude as a nonlinear variable.
The average behavior of the individual attitudinal network can be described as a cusp. Cusp behaves continuously (when attention is low) and discontinuously (when attention is high).
In this model the state of one person is defined by three variables: opinion, the information available, and attention to the topic. These models are based on three assumptions:
Interactions are more likely to be initiated by individuals with high attention
* When people interact, they exchange information and move somewhat towards each other * Attention to an issue decreases only slowly but is increased again by interactions

Question 18

How does the Ising model, originally from physics, apply to modeling individual attitudes in social sciences?

Answer 18

The Ising model, which describes how magnets align based on their neighbors’ influence, is adapted to represent how individuals’ attitudes (feelings, beliefs, and behaviors) can align with their social environment. Just like a magnet, an individual’s attitude elements tend to stabilize in one direction based on external influences (social pressure) and internal consistency. At low “temperatures” (high attention), attitudes stabilize; at higher “temperatures” (low attention), they fluctuate more easily.

Question 19

What role do psychological networks of feelings, beliefs, and behaviors play in the process of polarization?

Answer 19

These psychological networks represent how interconnected a person’s beliefs, feelings, and behaviors are regarding a specific issue. When these elements are strongly aligned, the person has a stable attitude. However, inconsistencies within the network (e.g., cognitive dissonance) or interactions with opposing viewpoints can lead to sudden shifts in attitudes. When these shifts occur across many individuals in a social network, they contribute to societal polarization.

Question 20

What is the “hysteresis effect,” and how does it make changing strong attitudes difficult?

Answer 20

The hysteresis effect describes the resistance to changing strong, established attitudes, even when presented with counter-information. It occurs because once an opinion becomes strong and attention to the issue is high, it takes a significant external force or new information to shift that opinion. Even after external pressure is removed, the attitude may remain stable in its new position, making it hard to reverse.

Question 21

How can agent-based models like NetLogo be used to simulate the development of polarization in a society?

Answer 21

Agent-based models like NetLogo simulate interactions between individuals (agents) in a society. In polarization simulations, agents interact based on simple rules (e.g., aligning with neighbors or resisting too-different opinions), allowing researchers to observe how small changes in individual behavior can lead to large-scale patterns like polarization. By adjusting parameters such as attention and involvement, these models can demonstrate how certain conditions increase or decrease polarization.

Question 22

In the Black Pete simulation, what factors contribute to the rapid polarization between activists and conservatives?

Answer 22

In the simulation, highly involved activists (with strong opinions against Black Pete) initiate most interactions because of their high attention levels, influencing less-involved conservatives. While some conservatives shift their views, others become highly attentive and resist change, resulting in polarization. The rapid shift occurs because attention and involvement drive more interactions, creating two extreme opposing groups.

Question 23

What is the importance of bounded confidence in polarization models, and how does it explain the lack of interaction between highly polarized groups?

Answer 23

Bounded confidence refers to the idea that people are only willing to engage with others whose opinions are not too different from their own. When opinions diverge too much, people avoid interactions, preventing moderation and leading to further polarization. This explains why extreme groups within a society rarely communicate with each other, reinforcing their polarized positions.

Question 24

how do we simplify a network of networks

Answer 24

using the cusp model to simplify a complex individual network into three key variables (attitude, information, and attention). This nonlinear model captures both gradual and sudden changes in attitudes, reducing the need to simulate each internal belief or feeling separately

Question 25

what is the network of networks

Answer 25

the network of networks combines two levels:

Individual networks: How a person’s beliefs, feelings, and behaviors connect within them.
Social networks: How people interact and influence each other.

Question 26

Pitchfork Bifurcation:

Answer 26

Pitchfork bifurcation is when a system moves from one stable state to two opposing ones. It explains how moderate opinions can split into two extremes, leading to polarization in groups or societies.

Question 27

what are transitions

Answer 27

Transitions refer to sudden, significant changes in behavior, attitudes, or opinions in response to small shifts in external factors, such as new information or social pressure.

Question 28

to what are the attitude, attention and information equal to in the ising model

Answer 28

In the Ising model, the concepts of attitude, attention, and information are represented as follows:

• Attitude is equivalent to the spin state of a particle, which can be either positive or negative (like “pro” or “con”). It reflects whether a person’s opinion is for or against something.
• Attention is analogous to the inverse of temperature (1/T). High attention stabilizes attitudes (like low temperature stabilizes spin states), while low attention makes attitudes more flexible or fluctuating (like high temperature causes more randomness).
• Information is similar to the external field in the Ising model, which pushes the spin (or attitude) in a particular direction. Just as the external field aligns spins, information influences attitudes toward a specific viewpoint.

Question 29

The attention paradox

Answer 29

refers to a situation where increasing someone’s attention or involvement in a topic makes them more resistant to changing their opinion. This means that while you might expect heightened attention to make someone more open to new information, it often has the opposite effect. The more focused someone is on an issue, the more fixed and resistant their views become, making persuasion more difficult.
The attention paradox shows that if attention is high, counter-information can’t change opinions because of the hysteresis effect. However, if attention is low, we can only temporarily influence someone but that influence doesn’t last.

Question 31

why would someone change their beilefes - 2 ways

Answer 31

There are two possible routes of why someone suddenly falls from their beliefs. There is the first gradual route where less attention to the topic leads to more sensitivity to counter-information. The second route comes from inconsistencies in the network that destabilize the existing attitude after which a sudden transition may occur.