Voting Behaviour And The Media Flashcards
1
Q
How many people read newspapers daily?
A
7 Million
2
Q
Which party had majority press support in the last 4 elections?
A
The Conservatives
3
Q
What was the Daily Mail’s circulation is 2022 vs. 2012?
A
909,000 vs. 1.8 Million (halved)
4
Q
What % of the public said the press influenced them more than Social Media?
A
32%
5
Q
What % of the public said social media influenced them more than the press?
A
26%
6
Q
Which party did the top 2 most read newspapers back in the last 3 elections?
A
Conservatives
7
Q
Where did the Tories party launch their 2019 Manifesto
A
In the Telegraph
8
Q
Famous quote after 1992 election
A
‘It’s the sun wot won it’
9
Q
What % of Sun readers voted Labour despite the Sun being pro-Tory?
A
30%
10
Q
What % of FT readers voted Labour in 2017 despite the FT backing the Tories?
A
39%
11
Q
Example of negative press on party leader not impacting election?
A
- Corbyn had very negative press in run up to 2017 election
- won largest increase in vote share since Attlee’s Labour
12
Q
Example of influence of TV debates (Corbyn)
A
- Made Corbyn appear ‘scruffy’
13
Q
Example of influence of TV debates (Clegg)
A
- Very successful in pre-2010 election TV debates
- contributed to ‘Cleggmania’
14
Q
Example of impact of TV Debates (May)
A
- Theresa May refused to take part in pre-2017 election head to head TV debates
- Appeared weak
Contributed to unpopularity
15
Q
Which issues did Newsnight expose?
A
- Labour antisemitism
- How COVID was transmitted to care homes
16
Q
Example of radio interviews leading to accountability (Truss)
A
- Disastrous radio interviews exposed failure of mini-budget
- contributed to eventual resignation
17
Q
What % of people said TV was the strongest influence in helping form opinion in 2015?
A
62%
18
Q
Clegg, Opinion polls, 2010
A
- In the run up to the election, Clegg was boosted in the polls by TV debates
- only temporary
- voters swung back to 2 main parties
19
Q
How much did The Conservatives spend per month on social media in 2015 election?
A
£100,000
20
Q
Examples of strongly partisan social media sites
A
- the Canary (Left wing, can be antisemitic)
- The Spectator (Right wing)
Recently these have gained significant traction
21
Q
What % of 18-24 voters relied almost totally on online sources to inform themselves?
A
79%
22
Q
What % of young voters relied on SM to discover other people’s opinions?
A
59%
23
Q
Examples of scandals going viral
A
- Rees Mogg’s comments on Grenfell
- Boy sleeping on floor of hospital with pneumonia
24
Q
How much did Labour spend on facebook advertising in the 2019 election?
A
£1.4 million
25
Examples of opinion polls being wrong
- 1992 - even exit polls predicted a hung parliament
- 2015
26
Examples of opinion polls being accurate
2019
27
Examples of high turnout following close opinion polls
- 2015 election
- Brexit Referendum
28
Example of election seeming decided so people don’t vote maybe
- 2017
- Corbyn gained greatly from this
29
Examples of opinion polls encouraging tactical voting
- 2015
- Lib Dem voters tactically voted Con to stop Labour
30
Examples of opinion polls shaping public policy
- suggested significant anti-trans rights sentiments in UK
- Key candidates for 2022 Tory leadership reflected this view
31
Example of refusing an interview
- 2019
- Johnson refused to be interviewed by Andrew Neill
32
Example of media exposing scandal
Partygate
33
Example of government controlling news agenda
Alistair Campbell (Blair gov) called a ‘spin doctor’
34
Example of media acting out of own interest
The Sun switched from Conservatives to Labour in 1997 and back to Con in 2010 in line with what would benefit Murdoch’s business
35
Up until when was VB strongly influenced by class?
Late 1970s
36
Examples of class dealignment
- Thatcher won 3 consecutive elections by attracting the working class vote
- Blair won 3 consecutive elections by attracting the middle class vote
37
Outline reasons for class dealignment
- Increased affluence
- Decreased influence of blue-collar industries
- less pronounced class differences
- Parties actively tried to change policy to attract all classes
38
When was there the strongest partisan affiliation?
Post WW2, pre-Thatcher
39
Outline outcome of partisan dealignment
- Increased number of swing voters
- Increased number of people voting for minor parties
- Weaker sense of party affiliation
40
Example of partisan dealignment
- Red Wall being broken in 2019
- Shows voting based on salient issues instead of
41
Example that some partisan alignment remains?
- Liverpool remains a Labour stronghold, with constituencies getting over 70% Labour support
42
How many 18-29 year olds voted Conservative in 2019?
22%
43
How many over-60s voted Conservative in 2019?
Over 60%
44
How much higher was turnout for over 60s compared to 18-24 in 2017
25 percentage points
45
Example that age may not continue to be important
Recent research by the FT shows millennials aren’t getting more conservative with age
46
Examples of region not being important
- In 2010, SNP broke Labour’s stronghold of Scotland
- IN 2019, the Red Wall broke - majorities of over 20,000 were flipped (however labour looks likely to regain the seats so may be anomalous)
47
Example of class decreasing in importance
- In 1964, 78% of AB voted Conservative
- In 2019, 42% of AB voted Conservative
48
What % of Degree or higher voted Conservative vs. Labour
- 29% voted Conservative
- 43% voted Labour
49
What % of people with no qualifications supported Brexit?
75%
50
What % of BME voters voted Labour
64%
51
Are the Conservatives more popular with young men or women?
Young men
52
Example of issue-based voting
74% of leave voters voted for the Tories in 2019
53
Example of Valence factors influencing voting
- In 2010, the most salient issue was the economy
- 28% thought the Cons could handle it best, 36% neither and 26% Labour
54
Why has ‘presidentialisation’ occurred?
- Increased media focus on leaders
55
Example of Tories losing reputation for economic competency
- Black Wednesday 1992
56
What fraction of voters don’t read manifestos?
2/3
57
What was the turnout and outcome of the 1979 election?
- 76% turnout
- 43 seat majority, Cons won 43.6% of the vote
58
Describe the social, economic and political context of 1979
- Winter of Discontent - mass strikes, national paralysis, Labour seen as incompetent
- ‘Labour isn’t working’
- Election triggered by nationalist parties withdrawing support after failed devolution referendums
- Cons dominated upper & middle class and made gains in working class
- ‘Essex man’ strategy - policies that appealed to working class eg. right to buy, support of small businesses
59
Outline Conservative manifesto 1979
- tax cuts
- right to buy
- privatisation
- curb trade union power
- moved away from post-war consensus
60
Key factors affecting VB in 1979
- Salient issues (Winter of discontent)
- Media (strongly favoured cons)
- Valence issues (Labour seen as incompetent)
61
Turnout and result of 1997 election
- 71.4% turnout
- 179 seat majority, 43.2% of vote
- Cons had worst election since 1832
62
Was class important in 1997?
- Not as much
- Labour made gains in middle class and didn’t lose working class vote as a result
- Labour policy shifted to centre to appeal to middle class
63
Examples of issue-voting in 1997
- Blair was ‘tough on crime’ - appealed to voters following high crime of early 90s
- Specific policy details - smaller primary school class sizes, cut hospital waiting times
- Constitutional reform allowed Labour to attract Lib Dem voters to win key swing states (arguably contributed up to 30 seats)
- Abandoned trad Lab image of tax and nationalisation
64
Example of leadership importance in 1997
- Blair was very popular
- seen as strong, popular and charismatic
- Major seen as weak, boring, leading a divided party tainted by sleaze
65
Competence in 1997
- Conservatives seen as economically incompetent after Black Wednesday
- Lab ahead in the polls since Black Wednesday
- Lab seen as competent, pledging not to raise tax
66
Media in 1997
- ‘The Sun backs Blair’
- Labour endorsed by media
67
Key factors influencing 1997
- Lab able to win middle class
- ruined reputation of Cons
- Leadership
- Media
68
Outcome of 2010 election
- 65.1% turnout
- Coalition majority of 77
- Cons won 36.1% of vote, 306 seats
- LD won 23% of vote, 57 seats
69
Campaign and TV debates in 2010 election
- Brown’s ‘bigoted woman’ comment (jumped on by media)
- Labour already behind in polls so maybe not that important
- TV debates - Brown appeared wooden (‘I agree with Nick’), Clegg boosted in polls after success but this dropped off by election
70
Issue voting
- Conservatives focused on Labours economic incompetence after financial crash of 2008
71
What %of people thought that most of the extra money spent by Lab was wasted?
59%
72
Perceived competence in 2010
- 33% viewed Cameron as most competent
- 29% viewed Brown as most competent
73
Importance of policy in 2010
-Little difference between 3 main parties
- Agreed on need to reduce budget deficit
74
Key factors influencing 2010 election
- Wider economic context (2008 financial crash dominated election)
- Leadership
- Sort of the campaign (further weakened Labour)
