Voting Behaviour Flashcards

Question

State areas by region which give support to certain parties in the 2017 general election

Answer 1

CONSERVATIVE PARTY: South England - 54% voted conservative Midlands - 50% LABOUR PARTY REGIONS: North East - 53% London - 55% Liberal democrat: South England - 11% SNP - Scotland - 37% Plaid Cymru - 10% - Wales

Answer 2

, all of the national parties can claim a significant concentration of support in certain parts of the country. In every general election, the majority of seats do not change hands, because of the inbuilt majority that a party has in a particular region. Even though the 2017 general election was highly volatile, only 71 out of 650 seats changed hands – just 11% of the total number. As a general rule, the industrial north is more likely to vote Labour and the south, Conservative.

Answer 3

Key patterns between region and voting behaviour can be identified: - The south of England, particularly the South East, is the most prosperous region in the UK, with high levels of home ownership and little tradition of heavy industrial trade unionism. The Conservatives do disproportionately well here. The ethnically white rural parts of the UK are also classic Conservative territory, whether this is East Anglia, Devon, Cumbria or Northumberland. - The Conservatives are also dominant in the Midlands, though slightly less so than in the South. - Labour leads in the north of England, but this is no longer a decisive lead. They dominate ethnically diverse big cities with large WC populations and major centres of industrial production such as South Wales, Merseyside, Greater Manchester and Tyne and Wear - Scotland has moved from being a Labour stronghold before 2010, to being dominated by the SNP and then returning to a three-party contest in 2017. - Until 2015 Wales was not dominated by any one party, but there was genuine competition between four parties there. However, Labour dominates after 2017. - Liberal Democrats have little support outside of London and the south of England. They fare disproportionately badly out of the UK’s FPTP electoral system, because they have fewer areas of concentrated support. However, they do have some heartlands: the South West, rural Wales and the far north of Scotland – where there is a long tradition of small-scale non-conformist artisans who do not identify with either of the main political parties. Since 1950, Orkney and Shetland, for example, has always returned a Liberal/LD MP to Westminster.

Answer 4

There is a sense that the LP does have deep roots and strong local party organisations in the north of England and in Wales, so it is inevitable that the party will poll well in those regions. Similarly, voting for the CP in the south of England is understandable because, in rural and suburban area, the Conservatives have long dominated the political culture. These regional variations are, therefore, real factors. In other words, regional variations in voting behavior, may in fact be class variations rather than geographical ones. Wealth, income and prosperity are not evenly distributed in the UK. The southeast is much wealthier than the rest of England. There are many more depressed, deprived and declining areas in the north, South Wales and Scotland, as well as several decayed city centres and areas where traditional industries have declined. It would be surprising, therefore, if such areas did not favour left-wing policies proposed by Labour (though in 2015, the SNP took advantage of the Scottish situation, taking over from Labour as the entrenched party). The key point here, is therefore, is that much of the regional variation in voting behavior can be traced to economic rather than regional influences

Answer 5

The key battlegrounds which have disproportionately decided the result of general elections have generally been London and the Midlands, where Labour and Conservatives have focused their resources on winning in key marginal seats. However, recent general elections have challenged a number of accepted principles of regional voting behavior. A number of surprise constituency results in 2017 suggests that voter dealignment is challenging the traditional dominance of political parties in certain regions. The CPs association with Brexit and their stricter controls on immigration provided them with unexpected victories in traditional WC seats such as Mansfield, which had been Labour since 1923. Conversely, Labour’s more cosmopolitan outlook and more consistent opposition to Brexit in the EU referendum enabled it to win seats like Canterbury, which had been Conservative since 1918. Therefore, voter dealignment is influencing both class and regional voting as the public increasingly votes according to issues rather than traditional loyalties.

Answer 6

Scotland: The industrial areas of Scotland traditionally provided Labour with large parliamentary support, while the Conservatives, Liberals/Liberal Democrats and the SNP gained significantly fewer seats. Indeed, so unpopular had the CP become in Scotland that they won no seats there in the 1997 general election. However, the way in which the SNP has become the largest party at Holyrood, and ran such a high-profile independence campaign during the 2014 referendum, has completely changed the political landscape of Scotland. In the 2015 general election, the SNP won 56 of the 59 Scottish seats at Westminster. The 2017 general election then provided another shock, with the Conservatives, under the leadership of Ruth Davison, won 13 seats to become the second biggest Scottish party. This highlights just how unstable and unpredictable Scottish politics has become during recent general elections.

Answer 7

London: The soaring cost of home ownership, as well as dramatic levels of inequality have significantly damaged the CP’s fortunes in Greater London. The way in which the capital voted decisively to Remain in the 2016 EU referendum has further damaged the CP in London since voters associated it most closely with Euroscepticism. The multicultural and metropolitan values that Labour espouses have further entrenched its support in the capital. In the 2017 general election, Labour secured 49 seats in London, compared to 21 for the CP and 3 for the LDs.

Answer 8

- the south of england, south east most prosperous region in the Uk, high level of home ownership and little tradition of unionism - they are more likely to vote conservative - strongholds of political parties can determine success as strong core support - strong roots and connections - some areas still have deep rooted concentration and support for parties - scotland more likely to vote SNP - metropolitan/diverse cities have labour support as they have large working class populations - however closer analysis does show that it relates to ethnicity and class rather than region

Answer 9

- economic and social class can link more than region as seen in 2019 election where there has been a changed link and parties losing their strongholds - voter dealignment - instrumental voting regions may not stay loyal always to their roots as seen with Brexit - economic and class background - north - deprived and south - wealthier - significance of region may look like region but more economic and class based

Answer 10

The impact of education on determining voting behavior significantly changed in the 2017 general election. Those with higher educational qualifications comprise the top social brackets and have traditionally been more likely to vote for the CP. However, in 2017, there was a change in voting patterns, with the CP increasing their support among those in the lowest social classes with fewest educational qualifications and Labour achieving higher levels of support among those with degrees in the top brackets. This unusual result may be an anomaly. However, it may also be part of a long-term trend in which the CP have closely aligned themselves with stricter controls on immigration, thereby increasing their support among white WC voters who feel threatened by globalization and so decisively voted Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Conversely, Labour’s more liberal approach to immigration and its more nuanced approach to Brexit have dramatically increased its support among better educated more cosmopolitan voters who voted Remain and have been dismayed by what they see as Conservative insularity.

Answer 11

In ‘The Road to Somewhere’ (2017) Goodhart, has contrasted the less educated ‘somewheres’, who are rooted to their communities through lack of opportunities, with the better educated ‘anywheres’, who have the educational qualifications to take advantage of globalisation. According to Goodhart, in 2017, it seemed as though Labour generated much increased support among the ‘anywheres’, while the Conservatives achieved their own breakthrough with the ‘somewheres’.

Answer 12

Degree or higher - 48% voted labour whereas 33% voted conservative Other qualifications - 39% voted labour whereas 46% voted conservative No qualifications - 35% voted labour and 52% voted conservative

Answer 13

From 1945 until the 1980s political parties attempted to gain the ‘housewives’ vote’ by articulating women’s concerns with family issues. However, as men and women increasingly play similar roles in the family and the workplace, this has become less relevant. Gender is not a relevant factor in voting behavior or determining the result of general elections. However, statistics reveal that there is virtually no difference between the way males and females typically vote

Answer 14

Clearly voting is not gendered. Furthermore, there is no noticeable trend in the comparative figures over the 23 years shown. However, although the overall gap is minimal, in the 2017 general election it was striking that among 18-24 year-old voters, just 18% of women voted Conservative and 73% voted Labour, whereas 36% of men in this age group voted Conservative and 52% Labour. However, this imbalance is not reflected in previous recent elections and shows the interplay between two demographic factors of gender with age. Over a longer period, there is a slightly tendency for more women to vote Labour than men, but it is highly variable and not statistically very significant. The gender of the PM does not seem to be significant, as illustrated in figures for 2017 when Theresa May was leader of the CP in the table above – it did not lead to more women voting for the CP. The figures below show that when Margaret Thatcher was the leader of the CP – the first female leader of a political party in the UK, more women voted for her in 1979 but by 1987, her female share of the vote had declined.

Answer 15

Although social and demographic factors are significant when explaining voter choice, partisan dealignment has resulted in the political context in which a general election is held, to be of increasing importance. Reflecting a decline of traditional voting loyalties, the electorate increasingly make decisions based on a number of judgements about the governing and opposition parties – reflecting what is important to them. Electoral judgements are increasingly based on the competency and effectiveness of the government and are called valence factors. With the decline of class-based voting, valence factors become more significant in determining the result of a general election.

Answer 16

VALENCE: The electorate make decisions based on the competency of parties – they make a valence judgement based on a number of valence issues

Answer 17

1. Governing competency 2. Manifesto 3. Campaign 4. Leadership

Answer 18

Valence can be summed up as follows: How generally competent was the previous government and how competent do voters think other parties would be in government? How economically competent was the government and are other parties likely to be? Is the manifesto and campaign realistic, achievable and appealing? Are they led by a dominant decisive leader with a good record as a politician? These valence issues are also connected to how united a party is. It is often said that a disunited party has no chance of winning a general election as voters dislike this division and uncertainty. Leading political analyst Peter Kellner (2012) summed up valence by stating: ‘Millions of voters don’t take a strong view on individual issues, they take a valence view of politics. They judge parties and politicians, not on their manifestos, but on their character. Are they competent? Honest? Strong in crisis? Likely to keep promises?’

Answer 19

GOVERNING COMPETENCE: Most political commentators today argue that valence is the most important predictor of voting behaviour, particularly with the emergence of partisan dealignment. It can be contrasted with positional voting where voters choose a party based on its position on one or a group of issues, such as which party will cut taxes or which will spend the most on education or the NHS? As well as general competence, voters pay special attention to economic competence. This includes how well they believe a party will manage the UK economy and how well they believe it has done so in the past. This may be described as judgements about governing competence – who will be most responsible with the taxpayers’ money? Who will do most to spread wealth or promote growth? This can sometimes be described as economic voting and it is a powerful influence on voting behaviour. Voters will look at the performance of the UK economy and decide which party has done the most to improve it and which has damaged it in the past. For example, after the economic crisis from 2008, Labour was blamed by many voters for allowing government debt to rise to an extremely high rate – Labour defeats in 2010 and 2015 were based partly on such economic voting. Whereas in contrast, the Conservative Party has an image of fiscal responsibility and good management – in 2016 the chancellor of the exchequer, Philip Hammond, stated he would manage the economy on a ‘pragmatic’ basis, so people could feel confident about his competence

Answer 20

THE MANIFESTO: In its manifesto, a political party will explain the policies upon which it will govern. It is unlikely that voters will engage with all the elements of a manifesto, however it is important that it is carefully composed since particular policies may help swing the result, while unpopular or confusing ones could undermine a campaign. Two examples demonstrate the influence of a party’s manifesto and how the electorate made judgements based on its competence: 1. In 1987 the LP manifesto did not commit to the UK’s nuclear deterrent. This enabled the CP to claim that Labour could not be trusted on defence, their campaign posting boldly stating ‘LABOUR’S POLICY ON ARMS’ next to an image of a surrendering soldier. 2. The 1992 Labour manifesto commitment to increase public spending allowed the CP to claim successfully that a Labour government would mean a ‘tax bombshell’ for every family. On both occasions, the Labour manifesto helped contribute to the CP victory. However, in 2017 the CP’s manifesto pledged that if elderly people receiving NHS care at home had assets of more than £100,000 then the excess would contribute to the cost of care after death. The plan was supposed to provide a fairer system of care but was quickly labelled a ‘dementia tax’ by the press and the CP campaign stalled as it became embroiled in defending the policy. Meanwhile, Labour’s manifesto commitment to abolish tuition fees boosted votes the from young and first-time voters, while its promise of an end to austerity and the introduction of higher taxes for the top 5% of the population had broad appeal.

Answer 21

LEADERSHIP: As voters have become more prepared to vote imaginatively rather than according to their social class, the image that the party leader projects and their public perception has become increasingly important. At a GE, voters are choosing a future PM as well as a ruling party and a local MP. Some PMs have been able to win convincingly largely because they were able to present themselves as competent leaders. Therefore, the image and qualities of party leaders are a key factor impacting on voting behaviour. The qualities that the public normally cite as important in a leader include: - Honesty and integrity - decisiveness - accountability - can be held accountable - charismatic (personality) - likeability - clear vision, public speaking skills and compassion The media would certainly have us believe that the character and image of party leaders are vital in the outcome of elections. The evidence, however, suggests otherwise. Writing on the BBC website before the 2015 general election, professor of politics at Oxford University, Archie Brown stated that the idea that party leaders can win or lose elections is rarely true and that the personality of the leader is only significant if it is an extremely close-run race. He argued that it isn't uncommon for the party with the less popular leader to win an election – using the 1979 general election as an example, where the Labour PM James Callaghan, despite being 20% ahead in popularity polls – lost the election. Similarly, in the 2010 GE, Nick Clegg was the most popular leader following impressive showings in televised leadership debates, but his party's share of the vote fell by 1% and the LDs lost 5 of its parliamentary seats.

Answer 22

Conflicting evidence: However, there appears to be some evidence that the popularity of party leaders do swing elections: Cameron had the best poll rating in the 2015 GE and his party won. However, closer analysis reveals that despite this victory, the LP's vote rose more than the CP's vote, 1.5% to 0.8% when Miliband was far less popular. Furthermore, Nigel Farage was the least popular of all the leaders and yet UKIP's share of the vote shot up by 9.5%. Nevertheless, during the 2017 GE a remarkable phenomenon occurred. Starting the campaign as the underdog, reviled by much of the press, opposed by many of his own MPs and unpopular among voters, Jeremy Corbyn created a bandwagon effect, mostly among the young. There is little doubt that his resurgence was a major influence on the outcome of that election and the Labour revival which increased the LP share of the vote by 9.6% - leadership can make a difference

Answer 23

ELECTION CAMPAIGN: During the actual campaign leading to an election, party activity becomes more intense and much effort, political skill and professionalism is used to convey the party message and convey governing competence. Although the actual campaign must last as atleast three weeks it usually goes on for four or more. The national campaign is designed to: (a) reinforce the views of those who are committed to the party, (b) recruit the genuinely undecided and (c) convert the waverers in other parties. The local campaign is still important in marginal constituencies where a small number of votes can change party control. Here, the purpose to get out the maximum vote, by speech making, canvassing and organising portal voting. The key debate is whether campaigns influence the result of a general election

Answer 24

FOR: - Although some campaigns simply reinforce existing attitudes, others may challenge them. The growth of partisan dealignment suggests campaigns do increasingly matter as voters are much more volatile. Parties are keen to target these voters with their message - In the 1974, the liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe was able to exploit widespread discontentment with Edward Heath and Harold Wilson and increased the liberal share by 11.8% - In 1992, John Major's decision to abandon stage-managed events and take his soap box to town centres changed the dynamic of the campaign and handed the conservatives and unexpected victory - In 2010, Nick Clegg's impressive performance on televised debates, lead to their role in a coalition government - In 2017, Jeremy Corbyn's optimistic rallies and popular manifesto commitments contrasted sharply with May's uninspiring campaign appearances. Labour dramatically increased is support from 30% at the beginning of the campaign to 40% in the election

Answer 25

NO: - Some political commentators argue that the influence of a campaign is exaggerated as most voters have decided how they are going to vote in advance - In the 1950s and 60s, the class allegiance that parties could depend on meant that campaigns made little difference. Even some modern campaigns have little impact on people's voting intentions - Harold Wilson's presidential campaign in 1964 was designed to make him appeal to voters as a British John. F Kennedy, but it only led to a 0.2% increase in labour share of the vote - In 1970, Edward Heath's campaign was dismissed as bland and uninspiring and plans had been drawn up to force his resignation when he lost - therefore his victory was unexpected - in 1997, John major decided on a long campaign to reduce Tony Blair's huge lead in the polls, however, the polls rarely changed and labour won - In spite of a poor conservative campaign in 2017, they still managed to increase their share of the vote from 36.9% in 2015 to 42.4% in 2017

Answer 26

OPPOSITION LEADERS: Sometimes opposition leaders can generate support by capturing the mood of the nation. For example, in 1997, the energy of Blair's campaign and his attractive self-confidence had huge appeal in the country in contrast to John Major's reputation for dithering weak leadership. Successful opposition leaders are thus able to set the agenda of an election to their campaign. Winston Churchill: 1951 GE Churchill successfully campaigned on a manifesto pledge to 'set the people free' promising to end rationing and reduce the MCs tax burden. He also won support by contrasting one-nation conservative values with the class-based socialism of the Atlee government Margaret Thatcher: 1979 GE Although personally less popular than labour PM james callaghan. Thatcher was presented as sensible and forthright successfully focused the general election on the government's failure to confront the growing power of trade unionism David Cameron 2010 GE: He succeed in focusing the general election on the huge increase in national debt under Gordon Brown. This was presented as Labour's weakest point and contributed to Brown's defeat. That cameron did not achieve a parliamentary majority was due to a strong showing by the liberal democrats under Nick Clegg

Answer 27

Opposition leaders can fail to engage with the public and may even lose support as the campaign continues Neil Kinnock (1992 GE): Having lost to Thatcher in 1987, Kinnock was confident of defeating major in 1992. However, the triumphant presidentialism of his campaign grated with core swing voters. At the sheffield rally just days before the election he was incoherent with excitement and his behaviour shocked enough voters back to the CP to give major a slim victory. ``` Michael Howard (2005 GE): He succeeded in reducing Blair's majority, however Anne Widdecombe's jibe that 'there was something of that night' about him, meant it was difficult to inspire widespread popular support for the conservatives. His support for the Iraq War (2003) also ensured that the anti-war vote went to the liberal democrats under Charles Kennedy ``` ``` Ed Miliband (2005 GE) He failed to persuade enough voters that he had the strength of character to be PM. An attempt to provide him with greater stature by having him publicly unveil a 9-foot stone tablet with his campaign promises carved into it backfired when it was ridiculed as 'Edstone' and the 'heaviest suicide note in history' ```

Answer 28

MINORITY PARTY LEADERSHIP Although every modern PM has been a member of the CP or the LP, the leadership of other political parties has often been important in determining the result of a general election: Liberals/Liberal Democrats: The 1964, 1974 and 2010 general elections all demonstrate how a strong showing by the leader of the Liberal/Liberal Democrat parties can a have a significant impact on the result: 1964: Although Harold Wilson had expected to win a decisive victory over Conservative PM Alec Douglas-Hume, it was reduced by the energetic campaign led by the Liberal leader Jo Grimond who increased their share of the vote by %.3%. largely reflecting the campaign appeal to the young 1974: In the ‘who governs Britain? Election, Jeremy Thorpe provided an exciting alternative to Edward Heath CP and Harold Wilson LP. The Liberal leader increased their share of the vote by 11.8% and by holding the balance of power was able to force the resignation of Edward Heath as PM. 2010: This was the first election in which televised leadership debates were held in the UK. Nick Clegg’s engaging personality made him the clear winner, forcing Cameron and Brown to admit, ‘I agree with Nick.’ The LD’s party-political broadcasts only focused on his trustworthiness. The 57 LD MPs elected to Parliament denied Cameron a majority, leading to the first coalition government since 1945.

Answer 29

UKIP: The impact of Nigel Farage as UKIP leader in 2015 was also significant. His relentless focus on immigration made it a pivotal issue among the WC and so took potential votes away from Labour, helping the Conservatives win marginal seats.

Answer 30

SNP and Scottish Conservatives: In Scotland, an extremely successful campaign by the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon in the 2015 election led to Labour losing 40 seats in Scotland, undermining Miliband’s hopes of forming a government. Two years later, Ruth Davison, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, ran a highly effective campaign which won the Conservatives 13 Scottish seats. This was the highest number since 1983 and without them, Theresa May would not have been able to form a government.

Answer 31

- rational choice | - tactical voting

Answer 32

Rational choice theory assumes that voters will make a rational and logical judgement on what is in their best interests. Ideally, voters will be fully informed about the various options and will choose the option that is best for them. By aggregating different views and policies, voters will be able to weigh up the strengths and weaknesses of all options and make a rational choice accordingly

Answer 33

This rational choice model of voting is also sometimes described as ‘issue voting’. As a result of partisan and class dealignment, voters, (as well as making decisions on the competence of the government in terms of valence), can choose to vote on the salience (importance) to them of certain issues. This suggests that voters do study a party’s manifesto and make decisions based on the party’s position on certain issues. Many voters who are not committed to any particular party or ideology, they make a rational choice between the parties based on their stance on certain issues - they judge a party or candidate by their position on an issue and choose the one that most closely reflects their opinion. Not surprisingly, these voters are particularly important to parties during election campaigning. This is why political parties conduct a great deal of research including establishing focus groups and opinion polls to investigate which are the salient issues the public feels most strongly about, so they can then tailor their manifesto (and campaign) to take advantage of this. Therefore, GEs can be determined by voters making a rational choice.

Answer 34

2017 GE - Grenfell, brexit, NHS, economy, immigration etc 2019 GE - NHS, Brexit, funding, abolishing tuition fees, taxation policies 2015 GE - 2015 GE, Ipsos MORI found that the were four dominant/salient issues: the state of the economy, asylum and immigration, NHS and healthcare and education. They found that the CP were trusted more on the top two – which goes some way to explaining their victory Some dominant issues in previous general elections include the following: . In 1983, Conservative warnings that a Labour government under Michael Foot would reverse the right-to-buy scheme contributed to the CP’s landslide re-election by encouraging the aspirational WC to vote for them to protect their properties. . In 2015, immigration was an unexpected core issue for many voters, contributing to the remarkable increase in UKIP’s vote from 3.1% in 2005 to 12.6%. . A core issue in 2017 which determined the GE, was where the leading parties stood on Brexit, while the LPs commitment to abolishing tuition fees provided a strong incentive for younger voters to vote Labour.

Answer 35

Two variations of rational choice voting are ‘expressive’ and ‘instrumental’ voting. If we assume that voters rationally seek to derive some benefit from their choice of candidate and party, two types of benefit can be identified: 1. A voter will derive satisfaction if s/he votes for a party what will benefit society as a whole: this is referred to as expressive or altruistic voting. 2. The other benefit is to oneself, if policies are likely to favour him/her – this is instrumental voting, which is motivated by self-interest.

Answer 36

Tactical voting: Tactical voting is undertaken in special circumstances and in specific constituencies. When voters feel that their first-choice vote will be wasted because it is for a party that has no chance of winning the constituency, they may change their vote to a second choice. Often supporters of the Liberal Democrats or Green Party may vote either Labour or Conservative (especially if the contest is close) because their first-choice party cannot win, in doing so– this is known as tactical voting. By doing this they may have an influence on the outcome. Typical examples of tactical voting include: * Labour supporters voting Conservative to keep out a Brexit party candidate in a close Brexit-Conservative contest. * Green Party supporters voting Labour to keep out a Conservative in a close Labour-Conservative contest. * Labour supporters in Scotland voting for the SNP to keep out a Conservative candidate in a close SNP-Conservative contest.

Answer 37

It is difficult to estimate how much tactical voting occurs and even harder to establish whether it has any effect on electoral outcomes. Jon Curtice, a leading election expert at Strathclyde University, estimated that in the 2015 general election, tactical voting could have affected the result in as many as 77 constituencies. Ipsos MORI’s research into voting in the 2010 general election, found that as many as 16% of Liberal Democrat supporters may have voted tactically for their second preference. However, no party has ever issued formal instructions for its supporters to vote tactically and so it is impossible to estimate its full impact with great certainty.

Answer 38

YES: . In the 1992 GE, 77% of the electorate voted. In 1997 it fell to 71% and since then the turnout has significantly declined as disillusion with politicians has increased. . This disillusion was caused by concerns that in a period of Blarite consensus politics voting hardly mattered since the policies of the main parties were so similar. . In 2001, turnout dropped to 59% and in 2005 it was 61%. . Disillusion has been especially associated with young people and poorer social groups; the ‘left-behind’ voters. . In 2005 only 34% of young people aged 18-24 voted. . In the 2015 GE, the 10 seats with the fewest people voting were all in the lowest income bracket. The smallest turnout, at 44% was Manchester Central. . The failure of young people and poorer DE social classes to vote has given the CP an advantage in GEs since it as been able to rely on the vote of more prosperous and older votes. . It has also been claimed that the disengagement of poorer social classes has meant that there has been less urgency to represent their interests at Westminster.

Answer 39

NO ARGUMENTS: . Political apathy was a major in the 2001 and 2005 GEs. The disengagement of the electorate was due to this being a period of consensus politics and Blair’s victory being widely assumed. This discouraged voting rather than indicating a long-term trend. . Voting steadily increased in the next three elections, in which the differences between the parties were more striking: 2010:65%, 2015: 66%, 2017:69% . The 2017 GE result, although disappointing by the standard of 1992, was the highest turnout in a GE since 1997. . The surge of interest in Jeremy Corbyn also ensured that in 2017 the vote among the 18-24 age group was closer to 60%. --- - Although still lower than other age groups, this is a big increase on 2005 and shows that young people will vote when big issues are at stake. . Concerns that the Conservatives have been unfairly advantage by political apathy among DE voters may become less politically significant as the Conservatives increasingly challenge Labour for votes in this category. . Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘For the Many, Not the Few’ campaign demonstrates that, in spite of lower than average turnout by poorer voters, their interests are not necessarily ignored by political leaders.

Answer 40

Turnout is the proportion of those eligible to vote who actually turn up to vote and is expressed as a percentage of the electorate.

Answer 41

It is evident that there was a sudden dip in turnout at the turn of the century. Before that the statistics were relatively healthy and much in line with historical levels of turnout. However, the lower levels of turnout have been a matter of growing concern. Apart from the fact that low numbers turning up at the polls suggests a worrying level of disillusionment with politics, it can fundamentally erode the legitimacy of the elected government. Two questions can be raised about turnout at elections, particularly general elections: 1. Why does turnout vary from one election to another? 2. Is there a long-term trend in turnout figures?

Answer 42

Variable turnout: This first question may be answered in a number of ways, but possibly the most important consideration is how close the election appears to be; there is a correlation between how much in doubt is the outcome and turnout. Turnout was relatively high in 1974, the election was so close that it resulted in a hung parliament with a narrow victory for the CP at 79. The turnout figures for the last three elections is historically low, but represented a recovery from the previous two elections. These elections were very close results. By contrast, 2001 and 2005 were foregone conclusions – Labour was going to win against a disunited CP – so turnout slumped. Even the landmark election of 1997, which swept the LP into power after 18 years in the political wilderness, saw a fall-off in turnout. Again, the outcome was predicted months before. Therefore, the main factors in variable turnouts are how important the election might be and how close the outcome is.

Answer 43

There is also, a long-term downward trend in turnout figures, especially from 1997 onwards. Virtually all of this trend can be accounted for by a significant and rapid fall in voting figures for the 18-34 age group. By contrast, turnout among other groups, especially those aged 55+ held up well.

Answer 44

There are a number of possible explanations for the link between low turnout and age: - There is widespread disillusionment with conventional politics among the young. This may be caused by the fact that politicians have introduced policies which discriminate against this age group, notably rising university tuition fees and the abolition of EMAs. However, it is also ascribed to general apathy, to a belief that politics has nothing to do with the things that concern the young and that voting will make a difference. - The young are increasingly finding alternative ways of participating in political activities, such as e-petitions, direct action and social media campaigns, thus moving away from conventional political activities. - Younger people tend to be interested more in single issues than in broad political ideologies. This is reflected in low election voting figures, less interest in political parties, but increased participation in pressure group activity and online campaigning. - Many young people feel the need to abstain. Abstention is when someone does not vote because they do not feel that any of the parties is worthy of their support; no party represents their own views and aspirations adequately. Abstention may also have a deeper meaning. Some non-voters may be protesting at the nature of the whole political system, believing it to be insensitive at best, corrupt at worst. Some voters spoil their ballot paper as a form of protest.

Answer 45

However, from 2014 there was a dramatic change in these trends: - The LP, LDs and the GP all report growing memberships, largely among the young, after the 2015 general election and the EU referendum. - Voting turnout among the young at two recent referendums was relatively high. In the Scottish independence referendum, polling organisation ICM estimated that 75% of 16-17 year-olds, 54% of the 18-24 group and 72% of those aged 25-34 voted. - In the 2017 election, voting among the young increased dramatically. Around 54% of the 18-24 age group voted, largely the result of a drive to persuade them to register to vote. As a result, Labour enjoyed a resurgence of support, most pronounced in university towns. This was enough to prevent the CP winning an overall majority in parliament.

Answer 46

Statistics have shown that voting has increased among the young during the 2017 general election with votes aged 18-24 - 54% voted and 25-34 - 55% which in comparison previous elections such as 2015 was only 43% of 18-24 year olds. However, in comparison to older voters, young voters are less likely to turnout more at elections as in the 2017 general elections 55-64 voters and 65+ turnout at 71% and even the 2015 election the turnout out for the older generation ranged from 72-78% turnout. This clearly shows how the conservatives benefit from the age turnout demographic as older voters turnout more than young voters and older voters are more likely to vote conservative.

Answer 47

From the 2010 election to the 2017 election voters of the AB social class are more likely to vote with their turnout out ranging from 69-76%. This clearly benefits the conservative party as those of upper class and middle class origin are more likely to vote the CP who would protect the interests of the wealthy and seem to have policies more linked to their lifestyle. Statistics also show a clear contrast in the turnout percentages from 2010 to the 2017 election for C2 and DE voters. This could perhaps be because these voters from C2, DE classes feel their represented or feel their vote will not change their circumstances.

Answer 48

It is clear that the age demographic advantage that the CP enjoys is greatly magnified by turnout trends. Furthermore, when the age effect is added to the social class effect, the LP has a great problem trying to persuade its natural supporters to vote - the class and age that favours Labour, turn up to vote in much smaller numbers.

Answer 49

Why those in social classes C2, D and E are more reluctant to vote than those in classes A, B and C1 is a complex issue. However, if we accept that the main reason why people do not vote in general is that they do not feel the outcome will make any difference, we can find some clues. The other factor is that people may be more likely to vote if they understand the issues, but not if they don’t.

Answer 50

Furthermore, the turnout at local elections, elections to devolves assemblies and for city mayors remains much lower than the numbers at GEs. Again, voter apathy may be because people do not believe that they can make a difference and believe that at a local and regional level, representatives that they are being asked to vote for have less power of their own. This is further borne out by the fact that voting behaviour at a local level is largely determined by national issues rather than local ones. This may change as devolved administrations gain even more power and city mayors become more established.

Answer 51

Plans to introduce voter identification risk upsetting the balance of the UK’s electoral system, making it more difficult for people to vote and removing an element of the trust inherent in the system, a cross-party group of MPs has said A report from the committee released on Monday said more thorough consultations were needed, particularly in regards to the voter ID requirement. It said: “There is a concern that a voter ID requirement will introduce a barrier preventing some people from exercising their vote”. “Introducing a compulsory voter ID requirement risks upsetting the balance of our current electoral system, making it more difficult to vote and removing an element of the trust inherent in the current system.” The report said the committee received a significant number of pieces of evidence from charities raising concern that the introduction of voter ID would cause additional barriers to voting for particular groups and communities, such as disabled people, transgender and non-binary voters, and black and ethnic minority groups. The report said: “Given the barriers that already face disabled people while voting, [the charity] Sense is concerned that this could make it harder for some disabled people to vote. While the bill’s broad definition of photographic ID does partly mitigate the disproportionate effect on disabled people, any additional barrier could discourage more disabled people from getting involved in elections.” On concerns raised by groups representing LGBTQ+ communities, the report said: “The LGBT Foundation, for example, raised concerns about transgender voters and non-binary voters being able to access appropriate forms of ID. [The charity] Mermaids told us that they think that the introduction of voter ID would ‘act to indirectly disenfranchise many trans people in the UK’.”

Answer 52

BROADCASTING: All broadcasters in the UK are bound by law to remain neutral and impartial and to offer balanced reporting of politics more generally and election and referendum campaigns more specifically. This means they have no intentional influence on voting behaviour. It is important that there is a legal neutrality requirement as research demonstrates that TV and radio are the main sources of information for voters in election campaigns. Parties use these media as a key way of getting their messages across, but they do not expect to gain any special advantage from it, (although, the BBC has sometimes been accused of a liberal left-wing bias, nothing has been proved). As a common feature of recent elections, the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 all hold leadership debates – however, they do so under scrupulous conditions overseen by the Electoral Commission. This is in contrast to the US, where networks are allowed to be politically biased and favour a particular party. Fox news in particular is well known for its conservative pro-Republican bias. During Tony Blair’s years as PM, ‘spin’ became a dominant influence in UK politics. His press secretary, Alastair Campbell, intuitively understood the importance of ‘spinning’ a favourable news story, while on TV Blair was calm, statesmanlike and reassuring. The decision to give Nick Clegg equal coverage in the 2010 leadership debates, provided him with a powerful and successful electoral platform and the failure of Theresa May to join the debates in 2017 provided opposition parties with the opportunity to ridicule her without having the opportunity to respond.

Answer 53

Unlike television and radio, there is no press regulation in terms of political bias and newspapers are highly politicised. The press has traditionally claimed that it plays a significant role in determining the outcomes of elections. Following the 1992 general election, when the Conservatives won a surprise victory where Labour were predicted to win, the Sun newspaper famously proclaimed in its headline the next day, ‘It’s The Sun Wot Won it’. It had run a relentless campaign against the LP, especially its leader Neil Kinnock, and the opinion polls which had initially predicted a comfortable Labour victory changed near election day. (However, at the next general election in 1997, it firmly positioned itself behind Blair, commenting on his landslide victory that ‘It was The Sun That Swung It’.) Whether it was the press that had changed voters’ minds is open to debate Many political commentators argue that the press exaggerates its influence as its headlines often simply reflect and reinforce the voting intentions (and political views) of its readers, rather than leading to them. In short, A Conservative voter is likely to buy the Daily Mail because of its right-wing Conservative bias, rather than be influenced by them. Giving evidence to the Leveson Inquiry into press behaviour in 2012, The Sun’s owner, Rupert Murdoch admitted that newspapers do not swing votes, they do merely reflect readers’ opinion. However, the fact that The Sun has backed the winning party at every election between 1979 and 2017 (and the European referendum) does raise some questions. Newspaper expert, Roy Greenslade maintained that the press can and does influence views, though he accepted that the effect is small and cannot really be proven. However, Tom Felle of City University’s newspaper journalism faculty disagrees, suggesting that it might have been the case in the past, but is decreasingly so. Felle also points out that younger voters rely on social media for their information, so the influence of the press is waning. The rapid decline in circulation of newspapers as people increasingly access their information online, has of course, been vital in reducing their impact on voting behavior and general elections. Supporting this, while Jeremy Corbyn was ridiculed in most of the mass-circulation newspapers (apart from The Mirror and Sunday Mirror), Labour increased its share of the vote by 9.6%.

Answer 54

SOCIAL MEDIA: Although parties and government increasingly use social media as a way of communicating with the public and of ‘listening in’ to public opinion, it is too early to assess its influence with confidence. Certainly, as an open medium, unlike the printed media, it is more difficult for any one party of political group to gain any special advantage. Unlike broadcasters, the web is unregulated so there are opportunities for any group to gain some political traction. It is especially useful for small parties such as the Green Party and UKIP, which do not have the resources to be able to compete with the large parties in conventional campaigning. Yet social media still remains a modest aspect of how people gain political knowledge. However, given the large number of young people who use social media, this provides an opportunity for more radical parties to gain influence. A key example has been the growth of the LP after 2015 and the use that Momentum, the left-wing movement in the LP, has made of social media. In 2017, Labour activists used Facebook, Twitter, hashtags and WhatsApp cascades to spread Labour’s message across the internet. This was a highly effective way of campaigning, as the population as a whole, increasingly accesses news and shares ideas through social media and it shows that Corbyn’s vilification in the newspapers mattered less than his dominance online. This suggests that 2017 may have been a watershed general election, pointing the way to a new sort of social media-focused election campaign. Therefore, all parties will have to increasingly engage with social media rather than relying on television broadcasts, pamphlets through letter boxes and the support of loyal newspapers. It seems likely that social media will take over (if it hasn’t already) from traditional media in forming opinions in the future.

Answer 55

OPINION POLLS: Opinion polls have been a feature of British political life since the 1940s when the first poll was carried out by the Gallup organisation. Gallup predicted that Labour would win the 1945 general election, much to the surprise of most commentators of the day. It was right and from then on polls became increasingly used to gauge political opinion. Since their early days, however, opinion polls have become both more influential and increasingly controversial. However, two questions need to be asked about opinion polls: 1. Do they have any effect on voting behavior? 2. If they do, how much does it matter that they have often been proved to be inaccurate, in which case the electorate are being influence by false information? 1. Do they affect voting behaviour? There is evidence that polling figures could affect voting. The most striking evidence concerns the 2015 election. Here, most opinion polls were predicting close to a dead heat between the main parties, resulting in a second hung parliament. In that event, it was widely suggested, the SNP, which was heading for a victory in Scotland, would hold the ‘balance of power’. In other words, that there would be a Labour-SNP coalition with Miliband as PM and the Scots calling the shots. Indeed, the CP began to campaign on that basis, hoping to gain votes and win an outright victory. 2. Does it matter if they are inaccurate? The polls over-estimated the Labour vote and under-estimated support for the Conservatives in the 2015 election. The question is: was there a late surge for the CP, fuelled by voters wishing to avoid a hung parliament with the Scots in control? Certainly, the CP campaigned on this basis. Similarly, the polls were showing the LDs doing poorly in the campaign. Did this lead to further defections from the party as increasing numbers of voters decided to vote tactically and so depressed the LD vote even further? The opinion polls were also inaccurate in the 2017 election. Most showed a Conservative lead varying between 5% and 12%, outcomes which would have won the party a comfortable parliamentary majority. In the event, however, the CP came in barely 2% ahead of Labour and there was a hung parliament. YouGov and Survation were the only opinion polls among many that predicted such a result. Opinion polling in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum and the 2016 European referendum were also inaccurate. Reflecting concern over their impact, the British Polling Council conducted an investigation into their performance arguing that inaccurate sampling and statistical methods were to blame. It stopped short of banning the publication of polls in case they influence voting. What is more likely is that politicians, the media and the public will increasingly ignore their findings.

Answer 56

FOR BANNING OPINION POLLS: - OPs may influence the way people vote. - OPs have proved to be inaccurate so they mislead the public. - Arguably politicians should not be slaves to changing public opinion expressed in the OPs AGAINIST BANNING OPINION POLLS: - It would infringe the principle of freedom of expression. - They would become available privately for organisations that can afford to pay for them. - OPs give valuable information about people’s attitudes which can guide politicians usefully. - They would still be published abroad, and people could access them online

Answer 57

Yes did influence result: Although he never actually said it, this headline suggested James Callaghan was out of touch with ordinary voters and swung opinion against the formerly popular PM No did not influence the result: OPs showed Callaghan as Labour’s strongest asset and he was generally ahead of Thatcher throughout the election campaign.

Answer 58

Yes it did influence the result: TV pictures showing Kinnock as triumphalist a week before the GE alienated some of the voters and caused some Labour voters to be more apathetic. No it did not influence the result: Happening a week before the GE, it is unlikely that this, on its own, had the impact required to explain different levels of support between the opinion polls and the election results

Answer 59

Yes it did influence the result: After Blair met with Rupert Murdoch, the Sun (and much of the rest of the press) declared support for Labour, leading many voters switching their allegiance. No it did not influence the result The press was simply reacting to the prevailing mood of the time, reflected in the polls, which was clearly swinging towards Labour.

Answer 60

Yes it did influence the result: The performance of Clegg in the TV debates raised his profile at the expense of Cameron’s, resulting in a hung parliament. No it did not influence the result: The LDs only increased their share of the vote by 1% and actually lost seats in the election.

Answer 61

Yes it did influence the result: The expenses scandal undermined the reputation of all MPs and led to many losing their seats and Labour government being rejected at the polls. No it did not influence the result: Despite the cynicism, turnout was 4% higher than in 2005 and Labour were set to lose anyway after the financial collapse of 2008.

Answer 62

Yes it did influence the result: The TV debate caused issues for all of the participants, apart from Nicola Sturgeon. Miliband’s fall from the stage and over-excited ‘Hell yes, I’m tough enough’ made him appear less prime ministerial than Cameron. No it did not influence the result: OPs suggest the debate made no real difference to voting intentions, merely confirming existing impressions of the leaders.

Answer 63

Yes it did influence the result: May’s refusal to participate a means of attacking her and a potential weakness. After Corbyn participated in the 7-way debate and performed better than expected, Labour improved in credibility. No it did not influence the result: May went on to win more votes than Cameron had in 2010 or 2015. Corbyn still lost and 3-party performers did well saw no improvement in their vote shares

Answer 64

The role of the media has traditionally been to: - Report accurately on political events - Provide a commentary on political events and policies - Act as a check and scrutinise the government of the day - Investigate controversies and bring them to the public attention - Educate the public on major issues and explain the potential impact of the various options available - Provide a forum for public debate and discussion and act as a bridge between the electorate and the unelected

Answer 65

However, the media play quite a different role in politics today and there have been many criticisms of the changes to this role: - The press and online sources have become overly partisan and mock and ridicule rather than providing informed debate - They have created a national mood of cynicism towards politics and politicians by their focus on scandal and corruption - The focus on leaders and personalities has turned politicians into celebrities, instead of focusing on their roles as public servants with a job to do - The media have made entertainment out of politics - The focus on crises rather than concerns has led to sensationalism and helped create a negative public view of the world - The relentless pressure of 24-hour news means the media create stories and issues and give minor issues more prominence than they warrant - The rise of online media platforms has led to partisan and uniformed debate being presented as fact, causing parties and the mainstream media to lose control of the agenda. This has resulted in a more partisan, opinion-orientated and susceptible electorate who are more superficially aware, but less engaged in the issues

Answer 66

A leading shadow minister has blamed broadcasters such as the BBC for allowing Jeremy Corbyn to be “demonised and vilified” during the election campaign, as the party struggled to come to terms with the scale of its defeat Andy McDonald, the shadow transport secretary, who was one of the most interviewed Labour frontbenchers in the media during the campaign, said the unfairness of the BBC and other broadcasters should make people “worry about our democratic processes”. In a sometimes angry interview on BBC Radio 5, McDonald said that in Corbyn’s treatment by the media he had “never in my lifetime known any single individual so demonised and vilified, so grotesquely and so unfairly”. Saying the Labour leader had been “vilified as an antisemite” and compared to Stalin, McDonald said the scale of the attacks had been broader than normal. “We know we’ve got the forces of the establishment, the elite, against us. “We’ve always had the print media, which is page after page after page of press barons absolutely destroying and vilifying Labour leaders from time immemorial. What’s changed in this election is the way the broadcast media have joined in with that battle.

Answer 67

Age defines what media voters consume While audiences of 20-somethings have largely abandoned television news altogether, BBC bulletins remain important for reaching older viewers who are more likely to back the Tories. And while print newspaper sales are collapsing and online news audiences growing, right-wing tabloids which relentlessly backed the Conservatives still sell millions of copies a day – and often indirectly help to set the agenda on television, radio, and online. Although it will be months before academic studies drill down in to the results, there remains a simple demographic divide on how people across the political spectrum get their news. One of the clearest differences is that most of those on the left prefer to get news online, and most of those on the right prefer to get it offline,” said Dr Richard Fletcher of the University of Oxford’s Reuters Institute. “There will undoubtedly be questions about the influence of online media on the election result in the coming weeks, and we should take these questions seriously. But to correctly understand the impact of online media on the election result, we must constantly remind ourselves that the people most likely to have voted Conservative in 2019 are the least likely to have accessed news about the election online.” .

Answer 68

The British public were more than capable of creating their own disinformation Ahead of the election there were concerns about foreign manipulation of the electoral process. Although there were some issues – the prime minister refused to let a report into Russian money be released pre-election, and Reddit suggested a Russian-linked account may have helped distribute leaked US-UK trade papers – ordinary, politicised Britons proved more than capable of creating their own fake posts. When the Tory campaign was briefly derailed by a photograph of a child on the floor of Leeds General Infirmary, a viral message spread among Conservative backers that the image had been faked by Labour supporters. Aided by a toxic mix of falling trust in traditional media outlets and Facebook’s hands-off approach to content moderation, the hoax message was spread to millions of people aided by promotion from mainstream journalists and influencers such as former England cricketer Kevin Pietersen. Some of the behaviour of those sharing the message – often older, less tech-savvy Facebook users – was so strange that they were mistaken for coordinated ‘bot farms’. In reality it appears they were just copying and pasting the same message out of enthusiasm and a desire to believe the photo was faked for political reasons.

Answer 69

We are becoming passive consumers of news on our phones There’s nothing new about the idea of a political leader winning an election by repeating a slogan until they are blue in the face. But the experience of consuming news on a smartphone – where headlines drift into view via push alert notifications from news apps, on Facebook, and through links sent by friends – means that it’s often the only way to cut through the noise. There is limited space for nuanced policy platforms and complicated offers to the electorate if people are not concentrating; it’s easier to adopt a policy of ‘endless screaming’ and bombard them with the same message – such as “Get Brexit Done” – through as many different channels as possible.

Answer 70

Attacking the media is the new normal – but mistakes can be quickly called out The BBC is facing a difficult post-election comedown as it reckons with widespread criticism from both the Conservative government – who accuse it of anti-Brexit bias – and from some Labour supporters who feel it made a series of errors in favour of the Conservatives. Journalists at the corporation fear the damage done by some incidents, such as quoting Conservatives party sources claiming Labour supporters had assaulted a Tory aide at a hospital in Leeds when no such incident took place. Social media helped set the record straight: within an hour a full video of the alleged altercation was online, making clear that the incident was not as Tory sources had described it, killing the story in its tracks.

Answer 71

Online advertising changed The 2016 EU referendum and Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election focussed minds on the idea of under-the-radar, paid-for ‘dark ads’ which manipulate small groups of people to vote a certain way. But transparency tools introduced by Facebook and Google, although flawed, made this easier to track. They suggested political advertising in the UK is drifting towards the US model, with blanket ad buys on sites such as YouTube resembling television advertising designed to carpet-bomb voters with simple messages, rather than the more laborious task of manipulating small groups below the radar. The Conservatives took advantage of Facebook’s refusal to factcheck paid-for political adverts, with one study by First Draft News finding 88% of Tory ads featured questionable claims. And there was a substantial rise in the number of newly-formed third party campaign groups with opaque funding structures spending large five-figure sums on pushing pro-Tory adverts reaching millions of people.

Answer 72

Mainstream media set the agenda but its power has been hit It was the election where politicians realised they could attack the media with few downsides. Boris Johnson’s decision to skip a one-on-one primetime television interview with Andrew Neil provoked fury from Labour, especially after they had agreed to put Corbyn up for scrutiny. But Tory strategists decided – apparently correctly – that a tough interview with Neil could be substantially more damaging than a few stories about Johnson refusing to take part in a television programme. The real concern, according to Tory campaign insiders, was about clips from the interview going viral. Television stations used to be able to set the terms of engagement because they were one of the only ways for politicians to reach a mass audience. The debacle over the Neil interview, combined with Labour and the Tories working together to keep the Lib Dems and the SNP out of the televised leaders’ debates, showed the power may now lie with the politicians, with potential implications for the next election. That’s if the broadcasters survive in their current form – with the new Tory government targeting both the BBC and Channel 4.

Answer 73

conservatives won 339 seats, 43.9% won Labour won 269 seats, 36.9%

Answer 74

DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES: A key factor that emerged around this time was the sharp decline in the number of people describing themselves as WC – this may have eroded Labour’s vote. Conversely, the MC was growing, helping the Conservatives.

Answer 75

VALENCE AND OTHER ISSUES: In the autumn of 1978, Callaghan had decided not to call a GE even though Labour were ahead in most opinion polls. This proved to be a mistake since the winter that followed witnessed large scale damaging industrial unrest. The image of the Labour Party suffered in the lead-up to the election. It was seen as the party of the trade unions and trade unions were unpopular at the time. The government of James Callaghan was seen as weak in the face of challenges by the unions and the loss of a vote in confidence in the HoC in March 1979, forced Callaghan to call a sudden GE.

Answer 76

PARTY LEADERS: Ironically before the election, Callaghan the Labour PM, had enjoyed a more favourable image than his opponent Margaret Thatcher. He was viewed as reliable and likeable whereas she was seen as distant and ‘too posh’. She was unpopular and many of the electorate may also have been reluctant to vote for a female PM. However, the Conservatives won, perhaps in spite of, rather than because of, their leader

Answer 77

THE POLITICAL ISSUES: Perhaps the key issue in this election was the power of trade unions. In the winter of 1978-79 there was a wave of strikes by public-sector workers, leading to bins being left unemptied, shortages of power and dislocation of public transport. It became known as the ‘Winter of Discontent’ and undermined Callaghan’s government’s authority, particularly as he refused to accept that there was a crisis. Therefore, a key issue was: which party was best placed to control union power? The answer for many floating voters was the CP.

Answer 78

THE CAMPAIGN: Even before it began, the Conservatives focused on Labour’s record in power and focused on its inability to control excessive trade union pay claims, bring down inflation and reduce unemployment. The Conservatives emphasized that they were the party of national unity with common sense and practical solutions to the growing power of trade unions. The positive way in which the press covered the Conservative campaign further reinforced the message among voters that Margaret Thatcher would offer a fresh approach to the defining issue of trade union influence. This helped to increase the Conservative vote in a number of social groupings which traditionally voted Labour.

Answer 79

``` TURNOUT AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE: Turnout was a little down among some social groups- largely due to abstentions by the WC and union members, Labour’s core voters. However, the 76% turnout was likely to have helped the Conservatives more than Labour and it illustrated just how much class dealignment had taken place, with Conservative support dramatically increasing across all social classes – the biggest swing being among Labour’s traditional core C2 voters: 26% voted Conservative in 1974 compared to 41% in 1979. Their campaign was highly significant in persuading large numbers of Labour voters to abandon their traditional loyalities. ```

Answer 80

OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING THE RESULT: The UK economy was not in a good state. There was high inflation, growing unemployment and falling growth. The conservative response was to plan a return to free markets and to curb union power. Prices would come down, they argued, if unemployment continued to rise so that wages would fall. The MCs were especially attracted to such policies. Much of the change in voting preferences was economic in nature.

Answer 81

EVENTS: The key event was the Winter of Discontent, which was the main reason for the Labour defeat. OUTCOME: The Conservatives were to be in power for the next 18 years.

Answer 82

Labour - 418 seats - 43.2% Conservative - 165 seats - 30.7%

Answer 83

DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES: Tony Blair and the Labour leadership recognised that the traditional WC, Labour’s natural core vote, was diminishing in size and that the party could not rely on it to put it into power; it simply did not have enough votes. They therefore decide to ‘woo’ the MCs, part of the Conservatives’ core vote, by adopting centrist (‘third way’) policies. This was achieved to great effect. The young were also persuaded to vote Labour as it represented a break from traditional, out-of-date politics.

Answer 84

VALENCE AND OTHER ISSUES: The image of the CP, which had been in power for 18 years, was a tired one, but above all the party was disunited, largely over Europe and associated with sleaze and incompetence. The journalist Martin Bell stood as an anti-sleaze candidate against the conservative Neil Hamilton, who had resigned from the government over allegations that he had taken ‘cash for questions’. This created huge negative publicity for the government. It had also presided over a deep economic recession in the early 1990s, so competence was an issue. In contrast, Labour had no economic record to defend and appeared to be a more dynamic, younger, fresher party, united around a definable set of policies, the so-called ‘third way’. Even the most optimistic Conservatives found it difficult to believe they could win the GE. Major was defeated in 1997 because he could not persuade the electorate that this party was fit to govern. It had lost its reputation for economic competence when it abandoned the European exchange rate mechanism on ‘Black Wednesday’. The resulting dramatic rise in interest rates hit mortgage owners the most and even when the economy began to recover, the CP never regained the economic trust of the electorate. In addition to this, the government’s slow response to the ‘mad cow’ disease, together with claims that ministers had colluded in the illegal sale of arms to Iraq, undermined the government’s credibility

Answer 85

PARTY LEADERS: There could hardly be a greater contrast between the two main party leaders. Conservative PM John Major appeared to be grey, unexciting and weak, whereas Tony Blair was clearly in command, was young, attractive and charismatic and had a clear vision. The LD leader, Paddy Ashdown, also enjoyed a positive image, reflected in a good election for his party. Major’s reputation for weak leadership was brilliantly exploited by Blair.

Answer 86

THE POLITICAL ISSUES: There were two main salient issues: the NHS and the state of education. Both services had been in decline. Labour promised to make huge investments in both to raise standards. Chancellor Gordon Brown promised to be financially responsible, which was a strong message, especially as Labour had a reputation as a ‘tax and spend’ party. Labour was fortunate that an economic recovery was under way when it took office, so it could pay for the improvements in public services.

Answer 87

THE CAMPAIGN: Blair’s press secretary, Alastair Campbell, ran a tightly disciplined campaign, which showcased Blair as a youthful and energetic leader whose progressive centre-ground policies were in sharp contrast to Major’s reputation for weak and uninspiring leadership. His presidential campaign was successful, election broadcasts were optimistic fitting in with its campaign song ‘Things can only get better’ - reached out far beyond Labour’s core vote. Their promise of dramatic constitutional reforms, including devolution and HoL reform also resonated with LD voters.

Answer 88

TURNOUT AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE: In this election, the first signs of a long-term decline in turnout emerged. The figure of 71% seems healthy by modern standards, but was much lower than typical levels. It doesn’t seem to have had an impact on the result, but was a watershed in political participation

Answer 89

OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING THE RESULT: The main problem for the Conservatives was that the electorate remembered the recession of the late 1980s and early 1990s and blamed them for it. There was also a general sense that the CP had mismanaged the economy. Labour was also in the unusual position of having the support of The Sun, which in 1997 had a circulation of almost 4 million. However, it is important to note that it switched allegiance to Labour only when they already had a commanding lead in the polls – but its support was significant in reinforcing Labour’s lead over the Conservatives.

Answer 90

EVENTS: Between 1992-94, John Major had presided over a CP hopelessly divided over the Maastricht Treaty, which transferred large amounts of power to the EU and led to much opposition from Eurosceptic backbenchers. The hangover from this was still present in 1997. OUTCOME: This was a massive defeat for the Conservatives, one from which it took 10 years for the party to recover. The scale of Blair’s victory meant that the Conservatives scored their lowest share of the popular vote since the leadership of the Duke of Wellington in 1832. Labour was to stay in power for the next 13 years. It was, though, the last GE to be totally dominated by the two main parties until the 2017 election. Labour was able to dramatically increase its share of the vote in all social groups by presenting itself as an inclusive progressive party and won the most votes in every age group. However, it still performed best among C2 (50%) and DE (69%) voters, while the Conservatives managed to keep a substantial lead among AB voters (41%).

Answer 91

conservative - 317 seats - 42.4% labour - 262 seats - 40.0%

Answer 92

DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES: The election appeared to suggest a return to traditional two-party politics. Class dealignment was highly significant and voters were largely split by Brexit: Remain or Leave. In this election, the young came out in force.

Answer 93

VALENCE AND OTHER ISSUES: May announced on April 18th that she would be calling an early general election in order to provide a mandate to deal with Brexit. This was perceived as a gamble, but the Conservatives were ahead in the polls and she expected to be re-elected on a substantially increased majority because she was able to contrast the competence of her government with a ‘coalition of chaos’ led by Jeremy Corbyn. However, the campaign undermined her and backfired. The ‘Dementia Tax’ triggered an embarrassing U-turn within 24 hours of the manifesto launch, while commitment to grammar schools and the removal of the triple lock on pensions alienated some core voters. Voters ignored gaffs made by prominent Labour frontbenchers, such as Diana Abbott and focused less on valence issues and more on specific issues. The salience of issues in this election, especially Brexit, led to highly surprising results. By the end of the campaign the conservatives had squandered their 20% poll lead and on the day of the general election Labour achieved a 9.6% swing, the biggest to any party since 1945.

Answer 94

PARTY LEADERS: For one of the televised leadership debates, Amber Rudd stood in for May and the other leaders attacked May for not attending, with Caroline Lucas, leader of the Green Party claiming, ‘the first rule of leadership is to turn up’. Corbyn was able to present himself as a contrast and suggest he was more prime ministerial. He was repeatedly successfully presented addressing large, enthusiastic crowds – showing him as an engaging campaigner and leader, while May was seen speaking to small groups in closed locations

Answer 95

THE CAMPAIGN: The surprise announcement of an election, saw the Conservatives holding a dominant lead in the opinion polls over Labour. According to the political journalist Andrew Rawnsley, the Conservatives ‘ran the worst campaign in living memory’, based on the assumption that the electorate would regard Labour under Jeremy Corbyn as unelectable. The focus of their campaign on May as a powerful leader who offered ‘strong and stable’ leadership also backfired. As she gave a series of lacklustre, stage-managed, emotionless speeches in which she lived up to media criticisms of her as the ‘Maybot’. Much was made of the leadership debates. Theresa May stated from the beginning that she would not be participating in any head-to-head debates, claiming she would rather be meeting voters and that she had already debated with Jeremy Corbyn regularly at PMQs. The campaign was also marked by a number of policy missteps by the Conservatives, as decisions were taken by May’s two advisers, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, with Philip Hammond being largely marginalised. The ‘Dementia Tax’ triggered an embarrassing U-turn within 24 hours of the manifesto launch, while commitment to grammar schools and the removal of the triple lock on pensions alienated some core voters. The Labour manifesto was much more enthusiastically received, especially pledges to abolish tuition fees, increased spending on the police and their commitment to not increase direct taxes for the 95% of the population earning less than £80,000 per year. After 7 years of austerity, Corbyn’s anti-austerity message was well received, especially as Labour promised to balance the budget by an ‘excessive pay levy’ on annual incomes above £330,000. Their campaign slogan of ‘For the Many, Not the Few’ had a resonance which the Conservative campaign could not match. So impressive was Corbyn on the campaign trail that by the end of the campaign, he had drawn equal with May in most of the opinion polls

Answer 96

TURNOUT AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE: 68.8% - Corbyn created a bandwagon effect, leading to an increased turnout of younger age groups: 54% turnout among the 18-24 age group compared to 43% in 2015.

Answer 97

THE POLITICAL ISSUES: The election was dominated by Brexit and questions of leadership. The conservatives continued with policies relating to austerity with promises to protect the NHS, but making cuts to other services and major reforms in education. Labour announced a number of polices to improve welfare provision while pledging to abolish university tuition fees. The LDs fought for a second referendum and UKIP focused on ensuring the Conservatives would commit to a hard Brexit.

Answer 98

OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING THE RESULT: Two terrorist attacks took place two week before the election, one at a concert in Manchester and the other at Borough Market in London. Usually such events would have played to the strengths of the Conservatives on law and order, but questions were raised about cuts to police services and the failure of the Home Office to deal with suspects before the attacks.

Answer 99

EVENTS: The EU referendum provided the backdrop and Brexit dominated. OUTCOME: The result appeared to suggest a return to traditional two-party politics. Both the Conservative and Labour had increased their share of the vote from 2015, by 5.5% and 9.5% respectively – mostly at the expense of UKIP (their vote fell from 12.6% in 2015 to 1.8%) and other minority parties (the Liberal Democrats gained 4four seats, but their vote fell by 0.5%). However, despite gaining 42.4% of the vote, almost 6% more than Cameron had in 2015, May lost 13 seats, resulting in a hung parliament for the second time in seven years. May pledged to carry on with support from the DUP who had 10 seats. By gaining 30 seats and 40% of the vote, Jeremy Corbyn secured his place as Labour leader and silenced many of the critics who had been expecting a 1983 style ‘wipeout’ The number of votes he achieved were more than that won by Blair in 2005. Brexit was the core issue on which the election was fought, with a major swing to the Conservatives among the economically vulnerable DE voters who felt the Conservatives would be more likely to impose the toughest controls on immigration, while much more pro-European AB voters and younger voters favored Labour as more likely to negotiate a softer Brexit. Class dealignment was highly significant - the Conservatives did well in those parts of England and Wales which voted Brexit and increased its share among Eurosceptic DE voters and Labour achieving highly in Remain areas and increased its support among pro-European AB voters.

Answer 100

CORE VOTERS AND PARTISAN DEALIGNMENT: Between 1970 and 2001 the UK was still dominated by two parties; each had its own group of core voters who would invariably support them, although their dominance was in gradual decline. In the early years of the (21st, this dominance was reduced significantly, falling to a low point in 2010, when less than two-thirds of the votes were cast for Labour of the Conservatives. It seemed that the two-party system was coming to an end along with the notion of core voters. There are a number of reasons for the decline of the two-party dominance coming up to 2017: * Voters often reported that they could see relatively little difference between the main parties as they both sought to capture the ’centre-ground’ of political opinion and the majority of votes. This loosened people’s attachment to one party. * The emergence of several alternative, smaller parties attracted the support of former core voters. * There has been a long-term process of what is known as partisan dealignment since the 1970s: where voters, who used to be strongly attached to one party and always voted for it, detached themselves from that relationship in great numbers. This essentially means that the core vote for the majority parties is shrinking. This is closely associated with class dealignment and means that increasing numbers of classes DE and AB are not voting Labour or Conservative as would have been predicted.

Answer 101

However, in 2017 there was a dramatic increase in voting for the two major parties. It leapt up to levels seen before the 1980s, however it remains to be seen whether it is permanent. There are possible reasons for this: • Support for UKIP collapsed after the 2016 EU referendum result. • There were very clear ideological differences between the main parties. • Younger people began to vote again in large numbers – most voting for Labour. • Voting for the SNP fell significantly, with these votes picked up by the two main parties.

Answer 102

Valence: This explanation is premised on the idea that because of the decline of traditional voting loyalties since the 1970s and the rise of partisan dealignment, electoral judgements are increasingly based on the competency and effectiveness of the government and are called valence factors. The key reason why voters choose to vote in the way they do involves a valence judgement on the competence/effectiveness of the government. If swing voters are reassured that the government is competent then they will be less likely to vote for opposition parties. Alternatively, if the government seems unable to cope with the challenges it faces, this will encourage swing voters to vote in a new government, either because they believe another party to be more likely to govern well or as a protest vote. A Conservative poster from the 1959 general election depicting a happy family at home and the line ‘Life’s better with the Conservatives – don’t let Labour ruin it’, is an example of how the valence influence of competency can be utilised by a governing party to achieve victory. On that occasion, the prosperity achieved under the Conservatives rewarded Macmillan with a 100-seat majority over the Labour leader, Hugh Gaitskell. Therefore, the electorate judged the Conservatives as having governing competency. With the decline of class-based voting, valence factors become more significant in determining the result of a general election. Many political commentators today argue that valence is the most important predictor of voting behavior. Leading political analyst Peter Kellner (2012) summed up valence by stating, ‘Millions of voters don’t take a stong view on individual issues, they take a valence view of politics. They judge parties and politicians not on their manifestos but on their character. Are they competent? Honest? Strong in a crisis? Likely to keep their promises?’ Valence judements can be contrasted with positional voting where voters choose a party based on its position on one or a group of issues, such as which party will cut taxes or which will spend the most on education or the NHS? As well as general competence, voters pay special attention to economic competence: this includes how well they believe a party will manage the UK economy and how well they believe it has done so in the past. This may be described as judgements about governing competence – who will be most responsible with the taxpayers’ money? Who will do most to spread wealth or promote growth? This can sometimes be described as economic voting and it is a powerful influence on voting behaviour. Voters will look at the performance of the UK economy and decide which party has done the most to improve it and which has damaged it in the past. For example, after the economic crisis from 2008, Labour was blamed by many voters for allowing government debt to rise to an extremely high rate – Labour defeats in 2010 and 2015 were based partly on such economic voting. Whereas in contrast, the Conservative Party has an image of fiscal responsibility and good management – in 2016 the chancellor of the exchequer, Philip Hammond, stated he would manage the economy on a ‘pragmatic’ basis, so people could feel confident about his competence. Valence issues are also connected to how united a party is and leadership. It is often said that a disunited party has no chance of winning a general election as voters dislike this division and uncertainty.

Answer 103

The Conservatives lost but Labour didn’t win. In a messy night with multiple cross-currents, voters turned against the Tories in many areas, yet an uneven Labour performance failed to fully dispel doubts about its appeal to the electorate. Tory nerves will be jangling after a heartland slump and the loss of prized London councils, but Labour strategists will also be anxious about mediocre performances in the leave-leaning battlegrounds of England. It was the Liberal Democrats who had the happiest night on Thursday, posting hundreds of gains up and down the country, while the Greens made major gains as voters sought alternatives to an unpopular government and an unconvincing opposition. A heartland slump and hundreds of seat losses will put new pressure on the prime minister, but his opponent, Keir Starmer, may also face criticism after failing to deliver a knockout. Advance in Scotland and Wales was easier as seats in both countries were last up in 2017, giving Labour a lower starting point. Labour made some dramatic breakthroughs in London and an overall gain in the south of England, but its vote share stagnated in the Midlands and fell back in the north, suffering overall net seat losses across both crucial battleground regions. The Liberal Democrats won a huge haul of more than 200 net seat gains, beating all expectations as disgruntled voters in Tory heartlands swung to the party across England, with gains in Scotland and Wales too. The Greens were also smiling after a third strong showing in a row in local elections, up by an average of four points on 2018 in seats they contested both times, with concentrated surges helping them to capture more than 60 English seats, often on huge swings. While the local results will be sifted for portents of progress or decline in the next general election, the election with the most immediate political consequences was in Northern Ireland, where Sinn Féin made political history by becoming the first nationalist party ever to top the poll in the province. Yet this, too, was a messy result defying simple interpretation. London grabbed the early headlines on Friday, as the Conservatives suffered a meltdown in the capital, with a dismal result exceeding the most pessimistic pre-election predictions, losing three high-profile councils with only the unexpected gain of Harrow to brighten an otherwise dark night. Labour had not run any of Barnet, Wandsworth or Westminster for nearly 50 years. Now they control all three. The red tide has been rising in the capital for many years, and with Labour now in control of Margaret Thatcher’s favourite council and the seat of government itself, the capital is close to becoming a one-party state. Yet while this was a worst-case scenario for the Conservatives, the underlying trends driving their decline are not new. All the pro-Labour currents in today’s politics converge in London, which is younger, more ethnically diverse, more graduate heavy and more on the remain side than the nation as a whole.

Answer 104

London is a Labour city Clinching Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet puts Labour close to a clean sweep of the capital’s boroughs, despite the Conservatives being led by a man who was once the city’s mayor. Gloomy Tory MPs bemoaned the fact there are Conservative seats in Barnet and Westminster that now appear at risk, and questioned why their party was not able to continue to appeal to longtime supporters. Ravi Govindia, the outgoing leader of Wandsworth council, offered his answer, saying “other events” had clouded voters’ judgment, and many had raised “the issue of Boris Johnson”.

Answer 105

Like the Lib Dems, the Green party in England had an unambiguously good night, albeit from a much lower base. By 4pm it had 78 councillors, up from 36 before polling day, and many of these were in places it had not previously been strong, including South Tyneside and Plymouth. Unlike in Scotland, where elections are fought under proportional representation and the Greens have joined the SNP in government, the English party’s strong showing is unlikely to presage a sudden rush of Green MPs to join Caroline Lucas in Westminster. But it has demonstrated its appeal well beyond its traditional strongholds of Brighton and Bristol, perhaps becoming what the elections expert Paula Surridge calls a “none of the above” party for voters exasperated with the status quo.

Answer 106

something is happening in the ‘sea wall’ Beccy Cooper, now the Labour leader of Worthing council after the party took control there in Thursday’s poll, has used the phrase “blue sea wall” to describe a string of places along the south coast – including Worthing, but also Southampton and potentially even true-blue Bournemouth – where political change appears to be afoot. Labour took control of Southampton council on Friday as well as Worthing, where demographic change making the town younger and more gentrified has helped Labour on its way. Alan Wager, of King’s College London, wrote before polling day: “We have emerging what looks to be a very wall-like set of places: a Plymouth-Bournemouth-Southampton-Portsmouth-Worthing axis running along the south coast where the Conservative party has reason to fear Labour.” There aren’t enough seats here to compensate for the loss of the party’s northern heartlands, but every little helps.