US elections new verison ! Flashcards
US elections are held
Every 4 years as set out in artical 2 of the consitution
Via electoral college
Candidates are required to have (not in consitution)
political experience
endorsement
personal characteristics
organisation
oratorical/telegenic skills
relevant polices
Most important requirement of presidential candidate (not in consitution)
Ability to raise large sums of money ( WAR CHEST )
What is an invisible primary
Period inbetween declaring an intention and the first contest
invisible primary allows candidates to focus on
getting name recognition
fundraising money (war chest)
having organisation
Invisible primary’s are played out
mainly in the media
during the invisible primary state the candidates will
formally announce that they are entering the presidential race
Formal events during invisible primary’s will take place where
in important states ( swing states )
what are intra party debates and when do they occur
during the invisible primary
highlight factions of party
criticised for soundbites
front runners at the end of invisible primary usually
goes on to be the parties nominee but exceptions include
Trump Obama McCain Romney
Second stage is
primaries and caucuses
Presidential primary is
state based election to choose parties candidates
votes in presidential primaries =
how many delegates from that state will vote for that candidate in the National Party Conference
What method do majority of the states use to vote for party candidates
Primaries!
Caucuses are used by geographically large but thinly populated states
What are caucuses
State based series of meetings for candidate selection
Which state has the first caucus and what is turnout usually like
Iowa!
Turnout is generally lower
Timings of primaries
States decide when
usually mid jan to beginning of june
why do some states have early primaries
to have more influence this is called FRONT LOADING
Why might some states wait till the last day for primaries
To increase prominence
Example of when primaries have been important
2024 15 states held primaries on same day ( super tuesday )
Types of primaries
Closed open and modified
what is a closed primary
primary election where any registered democrat can vote in the democrat primary and any registered republican can vote in the democrat primary
What is an open primary and what can this lead to
only registered voters can vote in either party primary
can lead to tactical voting
what is a modified primary
registered voters of a particular party can vote in their primaries AND independents can vote in either BUT only once
most states calculate votes for primaries
proportionally
this replaces winner takes all method
proportional primaries effect
nomination races will last longer as it takes candidate longer to secure nomination
most states set a threshold for a candidate to secure ANY delegates
What state has the first caucus
and first primary
Iowa
new hampshire
what do early primaries and caucuses help states gain
political focus and attention as they are small
they are vital for securing a nomination
but last 3 presidents didn’t secure these states…
If a candidate doesn’t gain Iowa or NH support
someone can come from behind them and take the spot as the states provide money and media attention to allow a campaign to gather pace
Disadvantages of early primaries
don’t represent the country as iowa is predominantly white
Staggering isn’t fair as not all states have a voice in the process, they set the tone for the whole election
Incumbent presidents primaries
little to no coverage
some states don’t even have one
mostly no opposition
Rarely in primaries incumbent presidents will face
opposition
bush carter ford
all were re-elected but LOST THE ELECTION
opponents can exploit their weaknesses
Voter turnout in primaries is determined by
-some states having better educated,older,richer voters
-any competition which makes them also last longer
Early primaries turnout are usually
Higher then later ones and voters can assume who will win
If a candidate doesn’t enter a primary
they can still be nominated
1968 Humphrey - controlled by state party conventions
Why did the method of choosing candidates become more democratic
Humphrey defeated by Nixon
this will enhance chances of success
Primaries increased level of participation
1968- 11% registered voted before reform
2008- 30%
2016- 29%
2020 -lower due to lack of contest republicans
Voter apathy and boredom in primaries
when incumbent president involved
Iowa 2020 - 9%
Process too long
JFK announce candidacy 66 days before first primary and Biden 2020 announce 558 days before
Wide range of candidates 2020
30
“party bosses” power has been reduced which leads to
less potential for corruption
making process more democratic
Media have replaced “party bosses” as new Kingmakers
2016 40 tv debates before candidates chosen and most took place before Iowa caucus
2020 democrat 11 debates
2024 republicans 5 debates which trump did not attend
primaries used as a “
litmus test” for coping with the gruelling demands of being president
Poll in 2024 march biden too old to run
how do primaries maintain federalism
states decide whether to hold primary or caucus
what type of primary
attempts to influence candidates
Primaries can develop into what between parties
bitter personal debates
create impression of disunity which can damage eventual candidate in the election
Example of disunity in 2024 primaries
Democrats 2024 outsider Phillips challenging Biden was the start of the unraveling of the party
Caucuses undemocratic
Voters that are too ideological selecting candidates they are comfortable with rather than who’s best for the country
Functions of national party conventions
Choosing parties presidential candidates
choosing VP candidate
Deciding party platform - policies
Most important function of national party conventions
PROMOTING PARTY UNITY
2016 Romney and john kasich chose to stay away from republican convention rather than endorsing trump
Ted Cruz (main rival) gave 20 min speech failing to endorse trump and said “vote with your conscience”
advantages of conventions
Exposure for candidate to party faithful
candidates with experience can bounce
Harris 2024 4% over trump post convention
Set narrative, define key elements
Disadvantages of conventions
Few major decisions are taken
post are done pre convention now
soundbite coverage - harris 2024 speech + false accusations of trump
what act made changes to campaign finance
The federal election campaign act 1974
An act for new party finance was a result of what
the water gate scandal
what changes were made to campaign finance
Federal election commission to enforce and regulate system
- hard money, limited individual contributions $1000 and limit corporate contributions to $5000 and no more donations from abroad
- Soft money, party can raise money to use on voter registration drives and party building activities
572 group
donations from super rich and largely known people , millions of $
Super PACS
fundraising committees permitted to receive and spend contributions aimed at electing or defeating candidates in federal elections
forbidden from coordinating with the campaign
allows free speech!
Typically democrat states and republican
Massachusetts Texas
Illinois Kansas
California South carolina
New york
Ohio swing state?
voted for winner of last 14 elections
however in 2020 broke this by voting Trump
less of a swing state now, more repub lean
Michigan predictor/issues
Was democ might turn repub
Largest proportion of Arab american
backlash over Biden/Harris stance on Gaza and support for Israel
Nevada issues/predictor
Democ might turn repub
5.1% unemployment rate
Large latino population
Pennsylvania issues/predictor
Democ might turn repub
Trump survive assassination.
cost of living pressures
1/8 food insecure
Wisconsin predictor/issues
Democ might turn repub
impact of 3rd party candidates
support for independent JFK Jt
