Examples for US elections! Flashcards
Example for raising war chest during invisible primary
2023 trump used legal cases against him to fundraise for his war chest
days after his mugshot was released he sold merch with the picture on
raised $7.1million
front runner at the end of of invisible primary not always winner
Trump
Mitt Romney
Obama
John McCain
all behind this stage but ended up winning nomination
Example of too many candidates during debates - reducing to soundbites and lack of debate
30 candidates in the democrat debates split over 2 nights in 2020
Conservative democrat candidates and
Progressives in 2020
Biden
Buttigieg
Bloomberg
Harris
Klobuchar
Sanders
Warren
Republican candidates in 2016/24
Social/Fiscal conservatives and moderate
Cruz
Rubio
Trump
Kasich
Christie
War Chests in run up to 2024 Biden and Trump
Biden raised $31million
Trump $35million
Scrutiny of the media example 2011 New Hampshire primary
2011 Rick perry couldnt remember the name of the 3 gov departments he would get rid of if elected
he then won less than 1% of the NH primary
geographically large but thinly populated states that use caucuses
Iowa FIRST
north Dakota
nevada
Turnout examples in caucuses in Iowa and nevada 2020 and 2016
IOWA - 2020 sanders 26%, Warren 18%, Biden 15%
IOWA - 2020 sanders 46%
Nevada 2016 Cruz 27%
Example of past primaries with prominence
2024 15 states held their primaries on the same day
SUPER TUESDAY!
Early caucus/ primary victories vital in securing nomination?
Not recently
none of last 3 presidents won NH primary
Clinton lost NH primary to Sanders in 2016
Bidens opposition in primaries 2024
Dean Phillips he believed biden was too old
Examples of incumbent presidents fighting for re nomination
Bush, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford
Although all 3 were eventually nominated they did lose the general election in the end
Proving party infighting is damaging as opponents can exploit each other
what type of primary is likely to see higher turnout
Open primary because either registered voter can vote in either primary
including Demo and repub
TACTICAL!
what event proved that the populist method of primaries was better
when Humphrey was defeated by Nixon after not entering any of the primaries
1986 and 2008 % of registered voters voting
11%
30%
2024 New Hampshire primary largest turnout
300k voters voted in republican primary
how many candidates were there in 1968
5
Iowa 2020 Caucus turnout
9%
how is the primary process unrepresentative
voters are usually
older better educated wealthier and more ideological
in earliest primaries especially
Iowa mainly white
Party bosses replaced by what in the media + 3 examples
King makers
2016 there was 40 televised debates most before candidates were chosen, and before iowa caucus
2020 11 democrat debates
2024 5 republican debates trump not attending any
how can primaries develop a impression of disunity examples
democrat 2024 outsider Phillips challenging Biden was potentially start of the unraveling of the party
how do primaries maintain federalism
States have right to choose when/whether to have primary or caucus
2016 republican candidates
Trump and Mike Pence
Pence served 6 terms as a senator
Governor of indiana
2016 democrat candidates
H Clinton and Tim Kaine
He was senator for Virginia which was a swing state
Speaks fluent spanish
Working class appeal
2012 republican candiates
Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan
Romney more centrist to beat Obama
2012 and 2008 Democrat candidates
Obama and Joe biden
Joe was senator for Delaware
Obama represented Illinois
2008 Republican candidates
John Mccain and Sarah Palin
Young
2016 republican lack of unity at NPC
High profile republicans chose to stay away from convention rather than endorse Trump (Romney, John Kasich)
Ted Cruz (main rival) gave 20 min speech failing to endorse + “vote with your conscience”
Impact of 2024 DNC for Harris
75% voters more excited to vote after Harris joined
Harris 9 point lead women
Why do speakers try to enthuse party faithful
Bounce in opinion polls
After 2024 conventions harris had 4% lead
NPC identify future starts
Obama speech 2004 and returned as candidate 4 years later
Advantage of conventions
Candidate try to set narrative
Kamala states Trump would bring abortion ban
Abortion rights one of her main topics
Buckley Valeo 1976
SC ruled that limitations on what individuals or PACS could spend
infringed on 1st amendment rights
Evidence that federal matching funds are ending
Obama did not use in 2008 - advantage
Opponent Mccain was capped on his spending as he DID use
Next election neither used
2016 2020 neither candidates used
Citizens united v FEC reinforced
1st amendment right to freedom of expression and political free speech
as organisations should be allowed to spend unlimited amount
Why has it been difficult to reform campaign finance
SCOTUS- uphold free speech
Congress- legislations benefit, unwilling to change
Bipartisanship- Unlikely to receive 2/3 majority to pass
Loopholes- previous legislation
Obama v Romney tv debate 2012
Obama seen as lacklustre
72% found that Romney was the winner 20% obama
Largest margin in tv debate history
How did the Tv coverage of the 2020 election affect voting
Republicans trusted/consumed 1/15 media outlets = Fox News
Democrats or indep Trusted all others EXCEPT for Fox News
2016 2/3s of GE campaign events took place in which swing states
6
Michigan
Florida
Ohio
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Virginia
what percentage of events took place in 12 battleground states in 2016
94%
In 2020 what percentage of states held the campaign events
12 states held 96%
22% of this being in just Pennsylvania
Maine and Nebraska use what method in electoral college
District rather than winner takes all
ECV are given to each candidate who wins each separate district
Small states are over represented by EXC example
2020 California had 55 meaning 1 for every 675K
Whereas Wyoming had 1 for every 185k
Winner takes all SNUBS in GE %
1992 Clinton won 43% popular vote 70% ECV
2012 Obama 51% popular vote 62% ECV
2016 Trump 46% popular vote 57% ECV
2024 Trump won 51% popular vote 58% ECV
Harris 48% popular vote
National third parties example 1992 and 1968
Ross Perot 19% vote but no ECV
George wallace gained some but only due to his support in the deep south
