Unit 5 Flashcards
Generates outcomes that are determined purely by chance
Random Process
A number between 0 and 1 that described the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of trials
Probability
If we observe more and more trials of any random process, the proportion of times that a specific outcome occurs approaches its probability
Law of Large Numbers
Imitates a random process in such a way that simulated outcomes are consistent with real-world outcomes
Simulation
A description of some random process that consists of two parts: A list of all possible outcomes and the probability of each outcome
Probability Model
The list of all possible outcomes
Sample Space
Any collection of outcomes from some random process
Event
Says that P(A^c) = 1 - P(A)
Compliment Rule
A^c, where P(A^c) = 1 - P(A)
Compliment
Two events that have no outcomes in common and so can never occur together
Mutually Exclusive (Disjoint)
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
General Addition Rule
Consists of one or more circles surrounded by a rectangle. Each circle represents an event. The region inside the rectangle represents the sample space of the random process
Venn Diagram
The event “A and B”
Intersection
The event “A or B”
Union
The probability that one event happens given that another event is known to have happened
Conditional Probability
Knowing whether or not one event has occurred does not change the probability that the other event will happen
Independent Events
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B|A)
General Multiplication Rule
Shows the sample space of a random process involving multiple stages. The probability of each outcome is shown on the corresponding branch of the tree. All probabilities after the first stage are conditional probabilities
Tree Diagram
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)
Multiplication Rule for Independent Events
