Unemployment-Inflation Flashcards
Philips curve
Shows inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation
Expectations augmented Philips curve
Philips curve with expectations
Multiple possible curves
The vertical distance between the curves is the expectation and exogenous variables
Expectations augmented Philips curve equation
π=f(1/u)+π^e+K
π - inflation
u - unemployment
π^e - Expected rate of inflation
K - Exogenous cost pressures on inflation
Adaptive expectations
Individuals adjust their expectations of inflation based on previous inflation
Rational expectations
Individuals base expectations on current information and various economic indicators.
Whilst this information and their judgement may be imperfect, random predictions between individuals will cancel out the variation
Variation in the SR and LR Philips curve
In the SR higher AD will increase its potential level, reducing unemployment and increasing inflation
In the LR higher AD is fully absorbed by higher inflation
The LR curve is perfectly inelastic: Vertical
Natural rate of unemployment
Rate of unemployment consistent with market clearing; unemployment at LR equilibrium
Natural rate hypothesis
Following fluctuations in AD, unemployment will return to a natural rate. This rate is determined by supply side factors
Fooling model
Workers equate an increase in nominal wages as an increase in real wages
LR: Believing they are better individuals, workers will increase their hours, leading to an increase in AS, hence unemployment will decrease and inflation increase. This will led to a shift in expectations
Acceleration theory
Unemployment can only be reduced below the natural rate only at the cost of accelerating inflation
An increase in AD will led to an increase in inflation. This will led to an increase in the future expectation of inflation, resulting in a right shift of the Philips curve. If the government now seeks to reduce unemployment, they will need a larger injection to achieve the same results.