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PMBOK > Uncertainty Performance Domain > Flashcards

Uncertainty Performance Domain Flashcards

1
Q

Uncertainty Definition

A

A lack of understanding of issues, events, or paths to follow, or solutions to pursue.

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2
Q

Risk Definition

A

An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more project variables.

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3
Q

Complexity Definition

A

A characteristic of a program or project or its environment that is difficult to manage due to human behavior, system behavior, and ambiguity.

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4
Q

3 icons

Ambiguity Definition

A

A state of being unclear, having difficulty in identifying the cause of events, or having multiple options from which to choose.

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5
Q

Environmental Factors of Uncertainty

A
  • Economics
  • Technical considerations
  • Legal Constraints
  • Physical Environment
  • Ambiguity of events
  • Social influences on market or public opinion
  • Political influences internal or external
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6
Q

General Uncertainty Approach

A
  1. Gather information.
  2. Prepare for multiple outcomes.
  3. Set based design.
  4. Build in resilience.
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7
Q

Gathering Information

A
  • General uncertainty approach
  • Conducting research
  • Engaging experts
  • Performing market analysis
  • Identify when the cost of collecting more information exceeds benefit of having additional information
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8
Q

Prepare for Multiple Outcomes

A
  • General uncertainty approach
  • Primary solution + backup or contingency plans if primary solution is not viable
  • Useful when there are a limited number of possible outcomes
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9
Q

What do you do when you are faced with the uncertainty and a large set or range of possible outcomes?

A
  • Assess and categorize the causes of outcomes and assess their likelihood of occurrence
  • Focus on the most likely to occur
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10
Q

Set-based Design

A
  • Multiple designs or alternatives investigated early on the project to reduce uncertainty
  • Compare trade offs: quality, cost, schedule, and time
  • Intention is to explore options to so project team can learn from various alternatives
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11
Q

Build in Resilience

A
  • General uncertainty approach
  • The ability to learn, adapt and respond quickly to unexpected changes
  • Example: ineffective product designs or prototypes
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12
Q

Conceptional Ambiguity Definition & Solutions

A
  • The lack of effective understanding when people use similar terms or arguments in different ways.
  • Establish common rules and definitions
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13
Q

Situational Ambiguity Definition

A
  • When more than one outcome is possible.
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14
Q

Progressive Elaboration

A
  • Response to situational ambiguity
  • An iterative process of increasing level of detail on project management plans
  • Occurs as greater amounts of information and more accurate estimates become available
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15
Q

Experiments

A
  • Response to situational ambiguity
  • Process of establishing cause and effect relationships
  • Goal is to at least reduce ambiguity
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16
Q

Prototypes

A
  • Creating a working model before actual production to reduce situational ambiguity
  • Bonus: Can help distinguish the relationship between different variables
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17
Q

Two Approaches to Systems Based Approaches to Complexity

A
  • Decoupling
  • Simulation
18
Q

Two Ways of Reframing Complexity

A
  • Examining a diversity of perspectives
  • Balancing data sources and types (focusing on more than forecasts or lagging indicators)
  • This means using multiple data sources that counter the negative effects of each alone
19
Q

Process Approach to Complexity

A
  • Iterative Design
  • Stakeholder Engagement
  • Fail safes
20
Q

Decoupling

A
  • Systems-based approach for approaching complexity
  • Disconnecting parts of a system to simplify and reduce the # of connected variables
  • Reducing the overall size of a problem to explore how a larger system works
21
Q

Simulation

A
  • Systems-based approach for approaching complexity
  • Seeking out analogous information from unrelated scenarios to learn about a system
22
Q

Remember categories of approaching complexity….

Diversity

A
  • Reframing method for approaching complexity of a system
  • Viewing a system from a diversity of perspectives
  • Examples include: Divergent ways of seeing a system (brainstorming) and Divergent-Convergent thinking (Delphi Method)
23
Q

Iteration

A
  • Process-Based method for approaching complexity
  • Building iteratively or incrementally by adding features one at a time
  • Identify what what worked, what did not work, and customer reactions
  • Learn what the project team learned
24
Q

Context of reducing complexity…hint: performance domain

Engage

A
  • Process-Based method for approaching complexity
  • Build opportunities to get stakeholder engagement
  • Aims to reduce the number of assumptions and build learning into the development/delivery process
25
Q

Volatility Definition

A
  • Rapid, unpredictable change, and magnitudes of change
  • Example: Fluctuations of available skillsets or required materials
26
Q

Two Approaches to Manage Volatility

A
  • Alternative Analysis
  • Volatility Reserve
27
Q

Volatility Reserves

A
  • Cost reserve used to cover price over-runs due to price volatility
  • Schedule reserves used to address delays due to resource availability
28
Q

How would you describe ‘Overall Project Risk’?

A
  • Function of complexity, ambiguity, and volatility
29
Q

Other Risk Metrics

A
  • Risk Threshold
  • Risk Appetite
  • Risk Impact, Probability, & Severity
30
Q

Threat

A
  • An event or condition that can have a negative impact on one or more objectives if it occurs
31
Q

Threat Responses

A
  • Avoid
  • Escalate
  • Transfer
  • Mitigate
  • Accept
32
Q

Threat Avoidance

A
  • Eliminating a threat or protecting a project team from its impact
33
Q

Threat Escalation

A
  • When the project team or sponsor agrees that a threat is outside of the scope of a project manager’s authority
34
Q

Threat Transfer

A
  • Shifting the ownership of a threat to a third party to manage the risk, and bear the impact if the threat occurs
35
Q

Threat Mitigation

A
  • Action taken to reduce the probability of occurrence and/or the impact of a threat
  • Early mitigation is more effective than repair after threat occurence
36
Q

Threat Acceptance

A
  • No proactive action planned against threats
  • Developing contingency plans in case threat events occur
37
Q

Risk Appetite

A
  • The degree of uncertainty an organization or individual is willing to accept in anticipation of a reward
  • May correlate with Risk Threshold (smaller margins for risk thresholds ~ smaller appetite)
38
Q

Risk Threshold

A
  • The measure of acceptable variation around an objective that reflects the risk appetite of the organization
  • May be defined through upper and lower limits
  • The point at which risk becomes unacceptable.
39
Q

Opportunity Responses

A
  • Exploit
  • Escalate
  • Share
  • Enhance
  • Accept
40
Q

Explain

A
  • This plots the effect on Return of Investment (ROI) of a projects goal against the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) of a risk
  • As the EMV of the risk increases, the ROI of the project diminishes
41
Q

Test

Situational Ambiguity Responses

A
  • Progressive Elaboration, Experiments, & Prototypes
42
Q

What differentiates a risk and an issue?

A
  • A risk can or may happen
  • An issue HAS happened

PMBOK (10 decks)

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