uncertainty management

Question 1

what is methodological uncertainty?

Answer 1

confidence that research procedures are directly addressing the question in which the researchers are interested
and allowing them to answer it

Question 2

what is statistical uncertainty?

Answer 2

how do the methods of statistical analysis help to reduce uncertainty?

Question 3

what are the 2 types of uncertainty within psychological research?

Answer 3

methodological

statistical

Question 4

what is descriptive uncertainty?

Answer 4

arises from multiple observations producing different data due to individual differences (random variation within the sample)
therefore statement of results has to include some doubt (expressed through means and standard deviations)

Question 5

what is inferential uncertainty?

Answer 5

the degree to which the results could have been produced by chance and therefore whether inferences can be made about the general population with them
may not be completely confident that the IV is the only thing affecting the DV

Question 6

what 3 things does inferential uncertainty depend on?

Answer 6

1. the ‘signal’ : the observed behaviour of the sample which establishes e.g means
2. the ‘noise’ : random variance (effect on DV of other variables other than the IV)
3. the sample size

Question 7

what is the relationship between the p value given and the degree of uncertainty?

Answer 7

the higher the p value, the more uncertainty there is about an effect being ‘genuine’ rather than just a result of random variation

so if p = 0.01, less uncertainty that the results have occured by chance than if p = 0.05

Question 8

what are the 2 branches of methodological uncertainty?

Answer 8

1. internal

2. external

Question 9

what is internal uncertainty?

Answer 9

whether the researcher has interpreted the results of the study correctly or whether something else may explain them?

Question 10

what is external uncertainty?

Answer 10

debate as to whether results can be generalised beyond the study to the target population

Question 11

why is external uncertainty the most generic form of uncertainty?

Answer 11

as it is closely related ot all the other forms of uncertainty

don’t want to generalise if internal (wrong interpretation of results) and inferential (results may be due to chance) uncertainty is high

Question 12

how to reduce internal uncertainty?

and what is it produced by?

Answer 12

produced by: a lack of control

reduced by: controlling for extraneous variables and eliminating confounds

Question 13

how to reduce external uncertainty?

and what is it produced by?

Answer 13

produced by: sampling error and naive empiricism

reduced by: appropriate sampling and theory development

Question 14

how to reduce integrity uncertainty?

and what is it produced by?

Answer 14

produced by: questionable research practices and scientific fraud

reduced by: open science practices and preregistration of study before conducted so confirmed before can begin

Question 15

what is methological validity?

Answer 15

to do with the quality of the study itself within its time and therefore doesn’t change

Question 16

what is methodological uncertainty (compared to methodological validity)?

Answer 16

produced by debates from consumers of rsearch questioning the validity (as viewed in the present) of certain forms of research and studies
so changes over time

Question 17

main differences between methodological validity and uncertainty?

Answer 17

validity - doesn’t change over time

uncertainty - changes over time

Question 18

what are the 2 branches of statistical uncertainty?

Answer 18

inferential

descriptive

Question 19

what does it mean when there is larger descriptive uncertainty for one group than another?

Answer 19

there is larger variation within that group

Question 20

what are the 3 sources of descriptive uncertainty?

Answer 20

1. inter-individual differences : variation in responses between individuals
2. intra-individual differences : variation in responses within individuals (e.g over time)
3. measurement error : variation in responses due to inconsistent measurement

Question 21

what are p values / probability statements?

Answer 21

calculations of how likely it is that the behaviour in our sample is the result of a random process (low inferential uncertainty = low p value = more confident that the effect is genuine)

Question 22

what should a researchers goal be regarding inferential uncertainty?

Answer 22

to measure it and not necessarily to reduce it

Question 23

what would it mean if inferential uncertainty was completely reduced?

Answer 23

that the knowledge would be trivial and mundane like the natural sciences such as ‘the sky is blue’

so a degree of uncertainty is needed (individual variation)

Question 24

why does statistical significance not necessarily = psychological significance?

Answer 24

because, due to the emphasis on significant findings, the researcher may find something statistically significant but for a relatively trivial question and therefore is not psychologically significant/important

Question 25

how should uncertainty be managed?

Answer 25

always a trade-off : reducing internal uncertainty by reducing sample leads to increase in external uncertainty as reduces generalisability

aim to reach a compromise