Uncertainty and interpretation of results

Question 1

Cost-effectiveness plane

Answer 1

The most CE is located in the northeast quadrant under the threshold.
- Uncertain? Many dots under the x-axis
- Effective? Most dots on the right side of the y-axis
Looking for a cloudshape.

Question 2

Petrou on RCT/Model-based

Answer 2

RCTs provide early opportunity to produce reliable estimates of the CE at low marginal costs.
Model-based have longer time horizons and more comparators, evidence and research settings.

Question 3

Cost-effectiveness acceptability Curve (CEAC)

Answer 3

Assumes normal distribution without negative ratios. Example;

• 50% under x-axis? Then start at 50% (uncertainty) and go to near 100% (effectiveness).
• COVID: Only short-term so misses valuable info, causes pressure on HC and high public opinion

Question 4

Con and Pro CEAC

Answer 4

• No illustration of the probability of dominance or inverse.
  + Does overcome problems associated with estimating the CI for CE.

CEAC do not always cut 0 on the y-axis.
CEAC do not always asymptote till 1.
CEAC do not always increase in lambda