Uncertainties & Effective Communication

Question 1

4 rules of forecats effectiveness, users must be able to:

Answer 1

Receive it, understand it, know what to do, take appropriate action

Question 2

Methods of communicating uncertainity

Answer 2

Verbal, graphical

Question 3

Deterministic forecast

Answer 3

Does not include anything about uncertainty

Question 4

Probabilistic forecast

Answer 4

Provides the probably, such as for precipitation

Question 5

Uncertainty in the forecast decreases

Answer 5

Nearer the time

Question 6

Ensemble forecasts

Answer 6

Take many initial conditions and run the model

Question 7

Ensemble forecasts involve the

Answer 7

Climatology and forecast uncertainty

Question 8

The spread in ensembles is a measure of

Answer 8

Uncertainty

Question 9

How to solve parameterisation errors

Answer 9

Use different parameterisation ensembles or different models

Question 10

Stochastic parameterisations

Answer 10

Pick one outcome based on its probability

Question 11

All ensembles can be represented with a

Answer 11

Postage stamp plot

Question 12

Postage stamp plots allow users to

Answer 12

Identify similar ensembles

Question 13

Uncertainty spread can be represented by a

Answer 13

Spaghetti plot, with contours

Question 14

Probability can be represented by

Answer 14

Probably contour plots (eg Olympics)

Question 15

5 ways forecasts can be improved

Answer 15

Better use of observations, better model physics, higher resolution, more ensembles, better communication