UK Paper 1: Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
what are the factors that affect voter behaviour?
social and demographic factors:
these include age, gender, religion, ethnicity and class.
non-social factors:
issue voting, valence and economic factors, rational choice and leadership considerations
influence of the media:
TV and newspapers, the internet/social media, opinion polls.
what is class-based voting and how is it changed?
this is the idea that members of a certain social class will vote a certain way. for example it used to be that the vast majority of those in the AB class (higher managerial positions) would vote conservative, while the majority of the DE class (semi skilled/unskilled manual labour) would vote labour.
from 1945 to the 1970s class was a fairly reliable indicator of how someone would vote.
90%+ of the electorate were voting for the 2 main parties
90%+ said they had strong attachment to a politcal party (partisanship)
-however there were always deviant voters. the conservatives held onto around 30% of the working class vote consistently, allowing them to win elections in the 50s and 60s.
there is now much less of a link between social class and voting behaviour.
the % of the AB class voting conservative has fallen from 78 to 43 between 1964 and 2017.
what is class dealignment?
this is the process of social classes being less and less associated with specific parties in recent decades from ~the 70s onwards.
there is now much less of a link between social class and voting behaviour.
the % of the AB class voting conservative has fallen from 78 to 43 between 1964 and 2017.
both main parties have moved towards the centre of the political spectrum allowing them to appeal to people from different parts of society. this may explain why class dealignment in voting behaviour has occured.
-traditional working class occupations in the UK have declined (eg work in arge factories). at the same time the tradition of strong trade unions has also declined
-middle classes have expanded; less partisanship
-growth of minor parties has distorted voting patterns, eg UKIP has taken many working class votes away from labour
-working class voters in scotland have moved to the SNP
what is partisanship?
this is the extent to which people feel a strong and permanent attachment to one party, meaning they will always support that party at elections.
what is partisan dealignment?
widespread tendency for people to feel a weaker attachment to a particular party. this means a larger proportion of voters are willing to change their party allegiance between elections.
what are the roles of gender, age and ethnicity in voting behaviour?
there is no evidence that gender plays a significant role in voting behaviour: this has remained the case for decades: patterns of voting among men and women are very similar. however there is a divide among young men and women. men 18-24 are much more likely to vote conservative than women of the same age range.
age is a large dividing line in british politics. eg 62% of 18-24 year olds voted labour in 2019, while just 17% of 65+ year olds did the same.
this divide seems to have become much more significant in recent years. in 1979 the 18-24 and 65+ groups were comparable in the percentage voting conservative. the gap seems to have steadily grown since then.
turnout is also far higher in older people: estimated 47% of 18-24 group tend to vote, while 74% of 65+ group vote regularly.
there are equally strong trends that can be seen in terms of ethnicity’s effect on voter behaviour. in 2017 21% of the BME population voted conservative, while 65% voted labour.
this could be explaned in several ways: a higher proportion of non-white groups live in urban areas: eg london is 45% BME.
a higher % of non white groups are employed in the C2/DE social groups, rather than AB/C1.
as a result class and region may have a larger impact, with ethnic divides in voting being a by-product of this.
what is the role of education in voter behaviour?
those with low educational qualifications (GCSE or below) conservatives beat labour by 22%. conversely, those with high-level qualifications (degree or above) labour beat conservatives by 17%.
however this disparity could just as easily be explained by age; young people today have much greater access to higher education than in previous decades.
summary of impact of gender, age, ethnicity, class and religion of voting behaviour?
gender:
has very little impact today: there is a slight tendency for women to favour labour, although this is mainly in younger groups
age:
one of the most important factors. older voters significantly favour conservative or UKIP, while younger voters lean towards labour and greens. older people are also much more likely to vote in the first place compared to young people.
ethnicity:
non-white groups tend to favour labour over conservatives, however there is evidence that this is fading as a trend.
class:
was previously the most easy way to predict a person’s voting behaviour. is now much less important, but remains significant to a degree.
region:
there are strong regional divides in voting behaviour. the most obvious of these is the SNP’s dominance over scotland. the conservatives also dominate much of the south of england, while northern england is occupied by labour representatives.
what is valence and its effect on voting behaviour?
valence is the general image that a party puts across. this includes its trustworthiness, competence, or unity, in the eyes of the electorate. this idea is independent of the actual ideas a party is proposing.
the effect of valence on voting behaviour is highly subjective as it is not something which can be measured, but there is evidence it has a significant impact:
governing/economic competence:
in 2010 labour was seen as a tired party, having been in power for 13 years by this point. it was also seen as responsible for the consequences of the 2008 financial crash in the eyes of much of the public.
party unity:
conservatives lost elections in 2001 and 2005, arguably due to internal divisions over europe.
trusted leaders:
BJ lost public trust over partygate scandal in 2022, so had to resign. ed miliband was not seen as a strong leader, making him partly responsible for labour’s defeat in 2015.
what is rational choice and its effect on voting behaviour?
the rational choice model refers to voting behaviour where people will vote purely based on the policies of each party, rather than an affiliation to a particular one - as a result people following the rational choice model can be called swing voters. these voters can have a highly important impact on the outcome of elections. examples of rational choice voting include:
18-24 year olds may be more likely to vote labour due to policy of removing tuition fees (although they have since scrapped this policy)
65+ groups more likely to vote conservative due to pension triple lock scheme
what is issue voting and its effect on voting behaviour?
this concept is similar to rational choice, however issue voting refers more to parts of the electorate prioritising single issues or groups of issues. issue voting can be further divided into instrumental voting (voting in one’s own interests) and expressive voting (voting in the interests of the wider community)
examples of issue voting include:
public services - labour
economy, defence, hardline immigration stance - conservative
leave the EU (pre-brexit) - UKIP
what is meant by economic factors and what is its effect on voting behaviour?
at most elections, the economic policies of parties, and the state the governing party has left the economy in are arguably the most significant factors in influencing voting behaviour. at most transfers of governance (from cons-labour or vice versa), there has been an econmic downturn shortly before. as a result there is a strong argument that the economy is the biggest driving factor in voting behaviour
examples:
1978/9 winter of discontent lead to cons taking power from lab
in the mid 1990s unemployment reached record highs, leading the cons to lose economic credibility; labour then won a landslide majority
2008 financial crash lead to a loss of trust in gordon brown’s labour, meaning they lost in the 2010 GE
recovery from this under cons has led them to win subsequent elections.
now the economy is officially in recession once again, the cons are looking at a massive defeat at the next GE.
conversely, a strong economy at the time of a GE means that the governing party retains power: 1987, 2001, 2005, etc.
what is meant by leadership issues, and what is its impact on voting behaviour?
this is also arguably a highly significant influence on voting behaviour for a large amount of the electorate. leadership issues refers to the perceived strength and legitimacy of a party leader. these issues could include: record in office (thatcher) decisiveness (blair), populist appeal (farage, corbyn).
perceived negative leadership qualities may have a strong impact on election results.
-john major’s perceived weakness in the face of a divided party contributed to his deavastating defeat in 1997.
-gordon brown was similarly seen as weak and indecisive, leading to his 2010 defeat.
-theresa may had to resign after perceived weakness - namely the massive defeat of her brexit bill in the commons.
similarly, strong leadership qualities have led to the success of parties on numerous occasions:
-thatcher’s iron lady reputation allowed her to secure 3 GE victories.
-blair’s charisma and public speaking ability allowed him to comfortably win 3 GEs, and see off 4 opposition leaders.
-johnson’s 2019 victory could be seen as a personal win - he was able to reach parts of the electorate previous con leaders could not.
how influential are newspapers on voting behaviour?
there is little evidence to suggest that views pushed in newspapers have much of on impact in influencing peoples views. the key piece of evidence for this is that the majority of prominent uk media outlets are right-leaning (daily mail, the sun, daily express, etc); these outlets were fiercely opposed to corbyn’s campaign for PM. despite this, theresa may lost her majority in the 2017 GE.
while newspapers do not change views, there is evidence that they do reinforce existing views. they also contribute to setting the agenda, potentially making this reinforcing views problematic. ed miliband was attacked by the press in 2015. being labelled as ineffective. it is possible this may have contributed to his surprise defeat.
what evidence is there to suggest traditional media is becoming less relevant?
-print media is unquestionably in decline in the uk, with readership continuing to fall
-print media has especially little reach with the younger generation (20% of 16-24 year olds get their news from print media), and people in the C2/DE class divisions
-increased selection of broadcast media makes it much easier for people to avoid political news
-broadcast media is being challeged by online/social media, especially with young people
