Trends - Hoja 1 Flashcards
NOLO
IWSR estimates will increase by** 1/3 by 2026. **
France has the highest number of new recruits, with 25% of no-alcohol drinkers joining the category in 2022
Germany is one of the largest no/low-alcohol markets in the world and a considerable share of older no/low consumers. This level of maturity and a lack of product innovation means that category recruitment is low, with only 6% of no-alcohol consumers joining in 2022.
AUSTRALIA ‘Advancement of Australian Lifestyle Wines’.almost 3MM investment from the Australian government’s to drive further innovation and improve standards within the no/low category
USA grew by +31% 2021-
Nielsen found that 78% percent of non-alcoholic drinks buyers in the U.S. are also purchasing alcoholic beer, wine, or spirits
premiunization - Trinchero Family Estates- premiunization Luminara premium range (20£ DTC)
Low-Alcohol and Alcohol-Free Options: Brands like Prosecco and Cava have introduced alcohol-free versions, catering to the growing demand for healthier lifestyle choices.
Recent wine launches include: Kendall Jackson Avant (Jackson Family Wines), BABE 100 (AB InBev), Cupcake Light Hearted (The Wine
Champagne
**Pol Roger Portfolio MD James Simpson MW **
Export markets, including the UK and US, expected to remain stable in 2024. Simpson predicts a cautious outlook due to external factors like elections and interest rates, emphasizing the need for growth across key markets.
Hong Kong rose by almost 8% in 2023, reaching over 2 million bottles. Simpson notes a positive market rebound, indicating growth potential due to regulatory changes and increased demand. noting that the city is “back up and running.”
Japan : Higher interest rates have increased the cost of holding stock, affecting stock replenishment and market behavior
France: Domestic consumption has declined, now only 42.5%
Nicolas Feuillatte aims to increase its export ratio from 43% to 50% within two years, anticipating growth in the US, Japan, Germany, Italy, and the travel retail sector.
Champagne premiunixation Nicolas Feuillatte has phased out its base-level Brut Sélection and introduced a more premium Grande Réserve. This strategic shift led to a 25% reduction in sales volumes but allowed the brand to increase its price from under €19 to €24 per bottle,
UAE’s Champagne market shows potential with sales nearing 2.9 million bottles annually, valued at approximately €80 million. Ranked top 10 globally by value. Recent regulatory relaxations in Dubai are expected to boost consumption further.
UK; Market Normalization Post-Covid. Shipments dropped by 8-9% in 2023.
**US: **
the US market is currently out of stock
Price Increases: Concerns over the price of Champagne, which rose by 10-12% in 2023, are part of the reason for the current sales slowdown and are expected to increase again.Threats and Market Stock: Potential tariffs of 10-50% by former President Trump could adversely affect the market.
Drinks business: Identified trends for rosé Champagne and extra brut.
Sparkling
**Global: CAGR of nearly 2% from 2017 to 2021. Of the 50 markets analyzed, 18 are defined as growth markets, representing over a third of global volume consumption.
It is forecasted that the sparkling wine segment will dominate the Wine market globally with growth at 8.5% by the year 2032.
In the US and Canada, for example, sparkling wine is much more likely to be seen as suitable for informal consumption at home than it was pre-2020. IWSR
UK Sparkling wine is the only wine type to record volume growth from 2016 to 2021 (2,4%)., driven by Prosecco accounting for 70% of volume. Prosecco DOC Consorzio, December 2023 Campaign: Spent over £250,000 on UK campaign to distinguish Prosecco from common effervescent wines.
UK Champagne volume has fallen significantly in sub-£30 price bands. Alexandra Mawson, Champagne and Sparkling Wine Buyer, Waitrose: Sales of crémant have overtaken Cava, with a 51% increase over the past three months compared to last year.
Sarah: CAP clasique
Organic
IWSR: 1 billion bottles of organic wine are expected globally by 2023 (x2 than 2013) **and 30% more than 2018
720K has in the world **(5% of all the vineyard of the world). ** Mainly France (now 9% organic-planned to double- of which 15% is in Alsace), Spain, and Italy. In CA only 2,4% is organic.
Sweeden Madeleine stenwreth organic Considering that back in 2005, when I was still a buyer @systembolaget , the aim was reaching a 1% of the total wine sales. Hitting 26% in 2020
Finland- Political(owned by the state) At the end of 2020, Green Choice products accounted for 30 per cent of Alko’s selection (target 40%) and 35 per cent of sales in litres (target 30%)
Antonio graca: origin of the products but not the impact Certifies practices but not results. Organic wine production is about 20% more expensive than conventional. €6.14 average sale price for a bottle of organic wine vs. €4.14 for traditional wine, or 48% more.
French boutique airline La Compagnie features an exclusively-organic onboard wine list, aligning with its “disruptive image” to cater to environmentally conscious passengers.
Vegan
Finland: 116% Growth in sales of vegan products in litres in 2020 compared to the previous year- ALKO
UK: Marks & Spencer 70% of their range,
Sustainable
Natural, organic and sustainable produced wines lead the opportunity index.
China offers the most opportunities across the sola, followed by Sweeden andGE (organic)
Brazil and Singapore in Natural and sustainable wines. WI2023 SOLA report
Environmental
About 35% of regular wine drinkers in the US and 43% in the UK now consider the environmental friendliness of the packaging when purchasing wine, up from 30% and 38% respectively in 2020. Wine intelligence
Regenerative Viticulture and Sustainability
UK The Wine Society has initiated a climate and nature program to promote regenerative farming practices among its suppliers and producer partners, offering grants for individual projects aimed at enhancing sustainability. The program emphasizes soil’s potential to sequester over 30% of the world’s carbon emissions, positioning this approach as a strategic response to climate change in the wine industry.
US Regenerative viticulture is gaining traction as the new global standard for sustainable wine production. Example: Stephen Cronk of Maison Mirabeau, along with Mimi Casteel of Oregon’s Hope Well Wine, co-founded the Regenerative Viticulture Foundation (RVF). This initiative is supported by major industry players like Jackson Family Wines and Möet Hennessy, emphasizing a holistic approach to viticulture that enhances biodiversity and soil health.
UK Product Trends
62% of beverages volume is beer vs 19% wine. “Premium rosé remains a very strong part of the market; it’s very interesting. It feels like it is behaving more like the Champagne category.” Matt Wilkin MS- Sarah Benson: We are seeing switching into Rose from white and sparkling. Malbec, Carmenere, and Moscato are trending in red and white categories. The market is also exploring unusual grapes like Mencia and Mazuelo. “I can see a big opportunity for South African Sauvignon Blanc now that New Zealand’s prices are largely £10-plus in the off-trade.”
China Product
There is a strong gifting culture with premium imported wines serving as prestigious gifts. Red wine is the most popular, followed by sparkling wines. Imported wines are mainly from France, Chile, Spain, Italy, and South Africa.
Private labels
UK
Sarah It can’t be hard to compete with big brands with big marketing budgets but for me I’ve found that using Premium own label has been a way to grow Chile beyond the market leader Concha Y Toro. Our Casablanca Pinot Noir outsold their Cono Sur brand so I took the brand out. Own label is strong for us because Coop members get £0.02 back in every £1 they spend on own label but also we give £0.02 back for every pound they spend to Community causes (that is causes nominated by local communities such as sports groups, art classes, funding park renovations etc) we’ve given £117 million to community causes since 2016.
Members are also keen to be involved and feed back – I had 115,000 members involved with designing the label for my new Pais wine but also 7000 members feedback on my fortified wine range and told me they wanted a white Port – so I brought one in.
US Product Overstock
Despite a slight decline from May 2023 highs, inventories remained at 1.61 times sales near year’s end. The report notes that the ideal inventory-to-sales ratio in a flat volume growth scenario should be 1.0x but may be lower in the current negative growth environment.
Continued over-production noted in California and Washington, with sales declining for three years, while Oregon’s production is in balance with demand. The report suggests a likely market correction for grapes and bulk wine in 2024, especially affecting larger, high-volume producers.
Total wine consumption is decreasing by volume. Retail inventories are backing up into wholesale. Wholesale inventories are bulging, and wineries are being more cautious about carrying inventory in a reduced-demand environment. Without improving demand, retailers can only rebalance inventories by buying less from wholesale while selling through their existing inventory.The wholesale inventory-to-sales ratio increased beginning in July of 2021 (slide 43), reaching a high point of 1.71x sales in May 2023. That metric has returned slightly to 1.61x
through late 2023, with wholesale inventories moving lower against flat sales levels.
US Product Us Product
The planted acreage in CA and WA is exceeding current demand.
US Product Yields
California fourth consecutive year of below average tields. Avg 3,5 mm gallons vs +4 in 2018
US Trends Consolidation
The wine industry is experiencing significant consolidation. Example: Dan Petroski of Massican Wines noted the trend toward acquisitions as larger companies like Duckhorn and Treasury Wine Estates acquire mid-sized wineries to reduce costs and expand market reach. This consolidation is reshaping the industry landscape, particularly in the context of rising production costs and competitive market conditions.
