Topic 10 Flashcards
What are the different types of error?
Types of error
* Random error due to chance
- Related to Precision
* Systematic error (NOT due to chance)
- Related to Accuracy and Bias
Define accuracy
- Accuracy is a qualitative term referring to whether there is agreement between a measurement made on an object and its true value.
Define bias
- Bias is a quantitative term describing the difference between the average of
measurements made on the same object
and its true value. - If it’s not accurate… there’s a bias
systematic = bias
Define selection bias
Selection bias
* Related with procedures used to select units for a study
* Study group differs from the source population
Information bias (AKA ________ bias)
- Related with information that is recorded for a study
- Error in the way something is ________, in particular the _______, _______, or other variables of ________ (e.g. disease status - calling an animal diseased when they are not disease = misclassification –> wreck havoc).
Information bias (AKA Misclassification bias)
- Related with information that is recorded for a study
- Error in the way something is measured, in particular the exposures, outcomes, or other variables of interest (e.g. disease status - calling an animal diseased when they are not disease = misclassification –> wreck havoc).
Define confounding bias
- Confounding “bias”
- Related with other factors other than the exposure of interest
- Distorted effect of exposure on outcome because of a third factor
- Next lecture
- Confounding and Interactions
Muddles your true effect
Sampling is where what type of bias can occur?
Selection bias
As you record disease, exposure, or information on study group, this is where what type of bias comes in?
Information buas
Even if subjects are correclty classified, other facotds wil distort the effect of an exposure. This would be ?
Risk factors
What are the consequences of bias?
- Specific consequences depend on the _____ of bias and study _______
- It’s often possible to ‘guess’-timate the direction of the potential bias
1. Descriptive studies - No _____ factors, so the only bias/problem is towards the ______. Any bias for way you sampled or way test results were measured will only show up as a __________ change.
So what you observe may not be the real prevalence in the _______. - Higher or Lower estimate of disease frequency
2. Explanatory studies - ________ and Explanatory variables (_____ factors)
- Higher or Lower estimate of disease frequency; whether you believe your risk factor is a ____ factor or _______ factor
- Effect estimate “______” or “_____ from” the NULL –> if a bias is towards = going to be towards us not finding a difference, a lack of _______ in your study to detect a difference; if away = identifies a risk factor as a real risk factor when in reality it is not, aka my bias is going to __________ how much of a risk truly exists. Which is worse? _______ from the null. Better to have a study that did not pick up a risk factor instead of saying something is a risk factor when it is not.
- NULL = no statistical difference between E__ and E__
- More difficult to estimate the ________ of the bias! The magnitude is = are we talking about a ____ or _____ bias? Harder to answer.
- Small difference or a large difference?
- _______ analyses (simulations) can help
- Specific consequences depend on the types of bias and study design
- It’s often possible to ‘guess’-timate the direction of the potential bias
1. Descriptive studies - No risk factors, so the only bias/problem towards Outcome only. Any bias for way you sampled or way test results were measured will only show up as a prevalence change.
So what you observe may not be the real prevalence in the population. - Higher or Lower estimate of disease frequency
2. Explanatory studies - Outcome and Explanatory variables (risk factors)
- Higher or Lower estimate of disease frequency; whether you believe your risk factor is a risk factor or protective factor
- Effect estimate “towards” or “away from” the NULL –> if a bias is towards = going to be towards us not finding a difference, a lack of power in your study to detect a difference; if away = identifies a risk factor as a real risk factor when in reality it is not, aka my bias is going to exaggerate how much of a risk truly exists. Which is worse? Away from the null. Better to have a study that did not pick up a risk factor instead of saying something is a risk factor when it is not.
- NULL = no statistical difference between E+ and E-
- More difficult to estimate the magnitude of the bias! The magnitude is = are we talking about a small or huge bias? Harder to answer.
- Small difference or a large difference?
- Sensitivity analyses (simulations) can help
Surveillance bias
* _____/______-clinical disease is more likely to be detected in animals under frequent medical surveillance and/or enrolled in surveillance programs
Surveillance bias
* mild/sub-clinical disease is more likely to be detected in animals under frequent medical surveillance and/or enrolled in surveillance programs
if you are monitoring a group of animals through a surveillance program, then you are more likely to find mild disease v/c you are actually looking vs. looking at population as a whole.
- Referral bias (AKA _______ ____ bias, Berkson’s fallacy)
- Differential referral patterns are a source of bias in hospital-based case-control studies. Explain this.
- Referral bias (AKA Admission risk bias, Berkson’s fallacy)
- Differential referral patterns are a source of bias in hospital-based case-control studies
Case control studies coming from referral hospitals. Is this a good source for our controls (hospital). Want controls to represent population, so if only choosing from hospital is that introducing a bias.
Non-response bias
* Non-response or _______ to participate in a study
* When we are losing >___-___% of the responses, this is what we worry about
Non-response bias
* Non-response or refusal to participate in a study
* When we are losing >20-30% of the responses, this is what we worry about
Missing data bias
* >__-___% (like non-response bias)
- Missing data bias
- > 20-30% (like non-response bias)
Loss to follow-up and Follow-up bias
* Similar to _____-________ bias, but occurs in the ________-___ period of longitudinal studies
Loss to follow-up and Follow-up bias
* Similar to non-response bias, but occurs in the follow-up period of longitudinal studies
if animal dies or is no longer apart of study.
you are losing information each time and is there a selection process going on that we are unaware of
Selective entry or survival bias
* Traits are _______ selected when choosing a group of subject
* e.g. ‘Healthy worker’ effect in occupational-heath studies
* Treatments that prolong _______ will increase prevalence of disease
Selective entry or survival bias
* Traits are naturally selected when choosing a group of subject
* e.g. ‘Healthy worker’ effect in occupational-heath studies
* Treatments that prolong lifespan will increase prevalence of disease
How do you reduce selection bias?
- ________ sampling
* This allows us to assess the probability of ______. This is the tool, but what is really important is having the right sample ____.
* Sample _____ dictates probabilities of differences between Target and Study population. Random sampling just ensures you have ______ sampling. - Maximize response rate
* Or ensure _____ response by E+|E-and D+|D- - Minimize ________ rates
* Or ensure equal _______ by E+|E- and D+|D-
E.g. have animals for time, minimize losing animals (so follow up). Maximize = provide incentive to get 100% response so you minimize selection bias.
* Cannot correct selection bias using analytical techniques.
- Random sampling
* Random sampling allows us to assess the probability of bias. This is the tool, but what is really important is having the right sample size.
* Sample size dictates probabilities of differences between Target and Study population. Random sampling just ensures you have proportional sampling. - Maximize response rate
* Or ensure equal response by E+|E- and D+|D- - Minimize withdrawal rates
* Or ensure equal withdrawal by E+|E- and D+|D-
E.g. have animals for time, minimize losing animals (so follow up). Maximize = provide incentive to get 100% response so you minimize selection bias.
* Cannot correct selection bias using analytical techniques.
Reducing selection bias
* Observational studies – consider ‘forces’ at play with selecting individuals; how are you selecting in this study design?
1. Case-control
* Use ______ cases (new case that will be apart of case definition), and get controls from ______ source population as the cases. (do not want controls to misrepresent where your cases came from)
2. Cohort
* B/c following animals through time, want to keep those animals in the study. Persistent _________-___ (equal E+|E-) with creative strategies for maintaining ____ participation.
- Controlled trials – “Randomize and blind…everything should be fine”
1. Randomize allocation to intervention/comparison groups. Keeps groups fair.
2. Blind to intervention allocation (E+|E-) - If recruiters selectively enroll patients into study based on the next likely treatment. (e.g. wait to push patient until treatment where they know they wont get placebo)
- Minimize withdrawals
- Maximize retention (follow-up)
Reducing selection bias
* Observational studies – consider ‘forces’ at play with selecting individuals; how are you selecting in this study design?
1. Case-control
* Use incident cases (new case that will be apart of case definition), and get controls from same source population as the cases. (do not want controls to misrepresent where your cases came from)
2. Cohort
* B/c following animals through time, want to keep those animals in the study. Persistent follow-up (equal E+|E-) with creative strategies for maintaining full participation.
- Controlled trials – “Randomize and blind…everything should be fine”
1. Randomize allocation to intervention/comparison groups. Keeps groups fair.
2. Blind to intervention allocation (E+|E-) - If recruiters selectively enroll patients into study based on the next likely treatment. (e.g. wait to push patient until treatment where they know they wont get placebo)
- Minimize withdrawals
- Maximize retention (follow-up)
Recall bias
* Problem when interviewing owners; How well do they recall info? Cases are better at recalling (remembering) past exposure compared with non-cases.
Interview bias
* Interviewers are privy to the hypothesis under investigation. The way question is asked and answered may be different if they know what the study is about. Kind of inevitable unless you can blind your interviewer.
Pre-verification bias
* Subjects may have _______ motives for overestimating exposure (e.g. ________)
Pre-verification bias
* Subjects may have ulterior motives for overestimating exposure (e.g. compensation)
Obsequiousness bias (‘______ _____’ effect)
* AKA ‘_______ __________ bias’
* Refers to animal ________
* Subjects systematically alter responses towards ________ desirable answers
* Hans was trained horse who could perform arithmetic tasks
* He was getting non-verbal clues from his trainer to determine when to stop stomping his hoof in response to a question
Obsequiousness bias (‘Clever Hans’ effect)
* AKA ‘Social desirability bias’
* Refers to animal welfare
* Subjects systematically alter responses towards perceived desirable answers
* Hans was trained horse who could perform arithmetic tasks
* He was getting non-verbal clues from his trainer to determine when to stop stomping his
hoof in response to a question
Consequences of information bias (misclassification)
1. Non-differential
* Systematic errors in one group (e.g. E) are _________ of the other group (e.g. D)
* So in a Case-control study, you would have Equal amounts of systematic error in ____, regardless of the __ status.
* In a cohort study, the bias in your _____ is regardless of ____ status. Equal amounts of systematic error in ___, regardless of the ___ status.
* Non-differential misclassification = error is always going towards the _____
2. Differential
* Systematic error occurs to a greater extent in one group than the other (If the bias in one is dependent on another, you call it a differential).
* Unequal amount of systematic error in __, depending on the __ status
* Unequal amount of systematic error in D, depending on the __ status
* Differential misclassification = err in any direction (can see either towards or away from NULL; making it very difficult to figure out information bias)
* Unless you have an idea of how much error is present and where…
Consequences of information bias (misclassification)
1. Non-differential
* Systematic errors in one group (e.g. E) are independent of the other group (e.g. D)
* So in a Case-control study, you would have Equal amounts of systematic error in E, regardless of the D status.
* In a cohort study, the bias in your disease is regardless of exposure status. Equal amounts of systematic error in D, regardless of the E status.
* Non-differential misclassification = error is always going towards the NULL
2. Differential
* Systematic error occurs to a greater extent in one group than the other (If the bias in one is dependent on another, you call it a differential).
* Unequal amount of systematic error in E, depending on the D status
* Unequal amount of systematic error in D, depending on the E status
* Differential misclassification = err in any direction (can see either towards or away from NULL; making it very difficult to figure out information bias)
* Unless you have an idea of how much error is present and where…
You can misclassify the exposure and the disease. We are worried about the consequences of this mixing up is, whether it is away or towards the null.
- –> an independent amt of mixing in the exposure and in your disease. When those two are independent, it means that it is balanced error across the board for either your exposure or your disease, but it does not depend on one another.
Consequences of information bias (misclassification)
1. Non-differential
* Systematic errors in one group (e.g. E) are independent of the other group (e.g. D)
* So in a Case-control study, you would have Equal amounts of systematic error in E, regardless of the D status.
* In a cohort study, the bias in your disease is regardless of exposure status. Equal amounts of systematic error in D, regardless of the E status.
* Non-differential misclassification = error is always going towards the NULL
2. Differential
* Systematic error occurs to a greater extent in one group than the other (If the bias in one is dependent on another, you call it a differential).
* Unequal amount of systematic error in E, depending on the D status
* Unequal amount of systematic error in D, depending on the E status
* Differential misclassification = err in any direction (can see either towards or away from NULL; making it very difficult to figure out information bias)
* Unless you have an idea of how much error is present and where…
You can misclassify the exposure and the disease. We are worried about the consequences of this mixing up is, whether it is away or towards the null.
- –> an independent amt of mixing in the exposure and in your disease. When those two are independent, it means that it is balanced error across the board for either your exposure or your disease, but it does not depend on one another.
non-differential is best, differential is worst