Timing, Phases + Ripeness Theory Flashcards
Negotiation process as balance between
- search for joint gains
- competing claims/ interests
Negotiations may take many forms
- communication from distance, versus face to face
- bilateral vs trilateral vs multilateral
Goal -oriented approach (Fisher & Ury)
focus on insights for practioners, aiming to achieve victory or the best possible outcome.
BATNA (Best alternative to a Negotiated Agreement)
Process-oriented approach (Zartman & Berman)
- Comprehensive model:
–> incorporates both past experiences + future orientations. - Negotiation as series of Phases (Zartman & berman)
- Negotiation process as sequence of stages (Shell 1999)
Negotiation as Phases
- Diagnostic phase
- formula phase
- detail phase
Diagnostic phase Negotiation
encompasses the initial steps taken
* bringing about negotiations…
* … long before the first formal session opens..’’
* until the ‘‘turning poing of seriousness’’
Formula Phase negotiation (Zartman)
eliminating issues to negotiations
Details phase
Eliminating issues in negatiations
Negotiation as sequence of stages (Shell) 2 soorten
- Negotiation process as a sequence of concessions
* Convergence achieved by reciprocation
* Bargaining behavior: confrontational, accommodative, tit-for-tat? - Negotiation process as an exchange of information
*Negotiation as a “persuasive debate”
* Exchange is designed to influence the
other side
*Aim to transform unilateral actions into joint ones
Definition Shell: Negotiation as sequence of stages:
Negotiation is an ‘‘interactive communication process’’ that may take place whenever we want something from someone else or another person wants something from us’’ - Shell
4 Stages Shell: negotiation as sequence of stages
- preparation
- exhanging information
- opening & concession making
- closing & commitment
What is Prenegotiation?
Prenogiation is the SPAN OF LIFE, and activity in which the parties MOVE from conflicting unilateral solutions for a mutual problem to a JOINT SEARCH for cooperative multilateral for joint solutions (Zartman)
Prenegotiations end when the PARTIES AGREE to FORMAL negotiations (an exchange of proposals desinged to arrive at a mutually acceptable outcome in a situation of interdependent interests) or when one party abandons the consideration of negotiation as an option (Zartman)
Prenegotiation as phases (Saunders)
- defining the problem = diagnoistic phase
- developing a commitment to negotiations
- arranging the negotiations
Key issues in prenegotiation
Who?
* power issues
* spoiler issues
What
* agenda+ issues?
* what order?
Where?
* neutral location
* shifting locations
How?
* mediator?
* plan b, c?
Why is prenegotiation necessary?
- Risks
- less risky to explore
negotiation as option
than to negotiate - exchange information reduces uncertainties
- costs
- exploration of potential
costs of actual negotiations - Development of perception that negotiation is an alternative
- Requirement
- assuring the other side that c concessions will be reciprocated.
- Support
- preparing domestic and international audience
- alternatives
exploring which actors should be included in process - compiling the list of alternatives (BATNA)
- Participants
- exploring which actors should be included in the process
-inclusiveness versus exclusiveness - identifying potential spoilers
- Bridges
- trust building mechanism (e.g. cease-fires)
Planning and preparation 3 stages
Stage 1: what do we propose to achieve?
Stage 2: how do we go about achieving it?
Stage 3: What if we fail?
Stage 1: what do we propose to achieve?
- basic objective?
- final implications?
- alternative courses of actions?
- who is competing with us?
what do competitors want? - do we have enough Factual data and information to support our arguments?
Stage 2: How do we go about achieving it?
- Who will lead discussion
- Who will check understanding (verify facts?)
- What questions whould we ask?
What are the emotional issues?
What power do we have?/ what power does other party have?
*what negotiation styles, strategies, and tactics are we going to use?
-What do we expect from the other party in terms of style, strategies
and tactics?
Stage 3: What if we fail?
- Do we renegotiate/
- What costs, and benefits are important?
- What new strategies would be available to us?
Planning and preparation
- knowledge is power
- of own inerests+ resources
- of others interests + resources
- well-targeted concessions + demands
When is a conflict mature ripe?
Perception of 3 crucial aspcects
- Mutually Hurting Stalemate (push factor)
- Way Out (Pull factor)
- Mutually enticing opportunity (pull factor)
When is a conflict mature/ ripe?
- Based on cost-benefit analysis
Pain-producing path leads to exploration of alternatives
Present situation is less advantageous than alternatives - All conditions are necessary but insufficient
Not self-implementing
Need for a valid spokesperson (for
each party) - Absence of ripeness is not a reason for inaction
Fostering sense of Ripeness steps
- Assess existence + peception of Mutually Hurting Stalemate (MHS)
- Assess existence + peception of Way Out (WO)
- Induce regonition of MHS, WO and MEO ( Mutually enticing opportunity)
- Ripen MHS and WO
5 Ripen attractiveness of negotiation (MEO)
Step 1 Asses existence + perception of MHS (Mutually Hurting Stalemate)
- Determine if a stalemate exists
-Frozen or violent conflict
-Effectiveness of attempts or intentions to escalate into victory (military) - Assess the extent of hurt
-Mounting costs
-Are costs understood as sign of pain (ex. body bags coming home;
-rising numbers of refugees)?
-Changes in leadership and alliances
Step 2 Asses existence + perception of WO (Way out)
- Evaluate official statements
-Greater openness to talking
-De-escalation of goals from holistic/abstract to specific - Assess willingness to cooperate
-Positive comments about the other side
-Positive sentiment about cohabitation
-Statements that de-demonize the other side - Identify preliminary signs of cooperation
-Meetings between low-key actors
-Cease-fires, exchange of prisoners…
Step 3: induce recognition of MHS, WO, and MEO
Mutually Hurting Stalemate
Way out
Mutually Enticing Opportunity
- Directly encourage a perception of a MHS
- Sell prospects of a way out + mutually enticing opportunities
- encourage perceptions
Step 4 en 5: Ripen perceptions
Ripen the mutually hurting stalemate and way out
- Using diplomatic measures
-Employ economic measures
-Apply military measures
Ripen the attractiveness of negotiation (MEO)
-Reframing the issue
-Determine prenegotiations
Practioners view (Lederach)
- ripeness is rear-view mirror
- ripeness is in the eye- of the beholder
- ripeness sees mediator action as cherry-picking
+ ripeness encourages the use of violence
Keyponts ripeness
Negotiation is a sequence of (back-and-forth) stages
§Prenegotiation is key to reducing uncertainties
§Knowledge is power
§Ripeness is necessary but insufficient
