The Beyond Parallel Website Flashcards
What is the relationship between American diplomacy and North Korean nuclear testing ?
There appears to be an inverse correlation between U.S.-DPRK diplomacy and the frequency of North Korean provocations in this 25-year period. That is, there is a correlation between periods when the U.S. is at the negotiating table with North Korea, in a bilateral or multilateral setting, and a decrease in DPRK provocations.
When was the ratio between negotiations and provocations highest, and when was it lowest ?
The ratio of negotiations to provocations is highest under North Korean leader Kim Il-sung from 1990 to 1994.
The ratio of negotiations to provocations is lowest under North Korean leader Kim Jong-un from 2012 to the present.
Negotiations under Kim Jong-un hit historic lows in comparison to his predecessors, even when accounting for tenure in office.
Describe the first North Korean nuclear crisis & 1994 Geneva agreed framework (January 1990–January 1993).
There were 7 negotiation events that occurred in this period. Prior to 1990s, the U.S. had little to no diplomatic contacts with North Korea.
North Korea carried out 7 different provocations during this period.
Describe the first North Korean nuclear crisis (January 1993–July 1994).
There were 19 negotiation events that took place between the U.S. and North Korea during this period. The negotiations centred around international inspections of North Korea’s nuclear facilities, nuclear waste sites, and its announced withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in early 1993.
In the process, North Korea agreed to freeze and eventually dismantle its nuclear reactors and allow IAEA inspectors to monitor the implementation process. In exchange, the U.S. agreed to provide two light-water reactor power plants, energy assistance, and security assurances while working toward normalization of bilateral relations.
Describe the period of Kim Jong-Il’s rule (July 1994–January 2001).
The U.S. and North Korea engaged in 109 negotiation events during this time which largely revolved around implementation and enforcement of the provisions of the 1994 Agreed Framework.
The ratio of negotiations to provocations was the second highest at [4.5 : 1] in this nearly seven-year period. In comparison to other periods, the number of negotiations outweighed the number of provocations. This era concluded with the end of the Clinton administration in January 2001, when suspicions mounted about North Korea’s clandestine pursuit of a highly enriched uranium (HEU) nuclear weapons program.
Describe the period of second North Korean nuclear crisis (January 2001–January 2009).
The ratio of negotiations to provocations was the third-highest at [2.37 : 1] during this eight-year period. There were a total of 64 bilateral and multilateral negotiations that took place. The majority of these were conducted as a part of the Six-Party Talks process, involving the United States, Japan, China, Russia, and the two Koreas. These negotiations began after revelations of a clandestine North Korean highly enriched uranium (HEU) program in October 2002, which eventually brought an end to KEDO and the Agreed Framework.
Six-Party Talks diplomacy started in August 2003 and achieved a denuclearization agreement, embodied in the September 2005 Six-Party Joint Statement. In this agreement, North Korea agreed to abandon development of all its nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs and to abide by a verification process.
Describe the period of strategic patience and “Leap Day Deal”(January 2009–December 2011).
The ratio of negotiations to provocations changes to [1 : 5.67] during this period. There are only 3 official bilateral DPRK-U.S. negotiations conducted over a three-year period. This dataset includes only official meetings in the public domain. It does not include track 1.5/2.0 dialogues between private citizens and North Korean officials or private visits to Pyongyang.
The data shows not only a noticeable absence of negotiations but also a corresponding increase in North Korean provocations particularly of ballistic missile launches over a shorter period of time.
Describe the period of Kim Jong-Un comes to power (December 2011–January 2017).
This period has the second lowest ratio of negotiations to provocations at [1 : 31.5]. There were 2 official negotiations during this period and a total of 63 provocation events. The two negotiations that occurred were associated with the “Leap Day Agreement,” an attempt to get North Korea to freeze its nuclear weapons program in exchange for U.S. food aid. (Secret visits to Pyongyang, such as the one made by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper in November 2014, were not counted in this dataset).
The data in this period shows a significant increase in the number and intensity of North Korean provocations. On 63 different occasions between January 2012 and December 2016, North Korea carried out over 70 missile tests and 3 nuclear tests. The nuclear tests occurred in February 2013, January 2016, and September 2016.
Describe the period of maximum pressure and engagement (January 2017–Present).
There have been no official government nuclear negotiations between the Kim Jong-un regime and the Trump administration. There were informal meetings between State Department officials and North Koreans that took place in Oslo, New York, and Pyongyang from May to June 2017 to facilitate the release of a detained American student. However, informal meetings and other track 1.5/2.0 dialogues were not included in this dataset.
What are the conclusions of the text ?
- Periods of negotiation between the United States and North Korea in a bilateral or multilateral format appear to have some correlation with a decrease in the number of North Korean provocations.
- Those in favour of dialogue with North Korea might see this as evidence of the efficacy of diplomacy.
- Skeptics will argue that the absence of North Korean provocations does not necessarily mean that nuclear proliferation, both horizontal and vertical, is not still occurring during these periods.
- However, there is no denying that a decrease in nuclear provocations by North Korea would be a welcome development.
