The Arab Spring

Question 1

What is oil power ?

Answer 1

A stupendous source of strategic power, and
one of the greatest material prizes in world
history” (State Dept, 1945)

Question 2

What is the Carter doctrine and how does it relate to Arab Spring ?

Answer 2

1. Soviet invasion of
   Afghanistan, 1979-1989

“stipulant que toute tentative de gagner le contrôle de la région du golfe Persique provoquera des représailles des États-Unis”

2. RDF, CENTCOM
   (Reagan)

Key question 1: Soviet Union or nationalism?

Key question 2: profits, consumption, control

Question 3

Describe Iran’s nationalization, and how does 1953 change the course of it ?

Answer 3

Nationalist Mossadeq - nationalize oil company

250M vs. 90M pounds

1951 - year of nationalization

Leads to an embargo and sanctions

1953 - British/CIA organize coup, and the Shah returns

Oil settlement
– AIOC 40%
– US 40%

US now the major player in oil in the Middle East

Question 4

Describe the motivations for the US grip on the Middle East.

Answer 4

in 1950s, despite the rise of nationalism and panarabism, the Us begins more insurgence because…

1. Profits
2. US Consumption of Oil :

US net imports 1948: 6% 2006: 58% 2019: 0%

From Middle East: 1948 (<1%), 1970 (4%), 2000 (13%)

From Iraq (graph) 3% of US consumption

3. Control

3.1 Amount and price

3.2 Geographical allocation
– Distribution and denial

3.3 Petrodollars
– Weapons
– Investment

4. Reconstruction

Middle East oil for European reconstruction
– 20% of Marshall Plan aid for oil
– Coal to oil-based economy

Question 5

Explain the role of Leverage in controlling the Middle East Oil.

Answer 5

Whoever sits on the valve of Middle East oil may control the destiny of Europe

Through reconstruction for example

Also, can halt Japanese reconstruction with a “Veto power” - where does the oil go is your decision

Question 6

What occurred in Tunisia during the Arab Spring ?

Answer 6

President Ben Ali, 1987-January 2011

• Dictatorship, massive corruption
• Western support: $350M military
  support from US
• Mohammed Bouazizi, 26 yo sets himself on fire, this begins the Arab Spring movement.

Question 7

What happens when the protests began spreading across Tunisia ?

Answer 7

Regime clamps down on protests
(deaths, live ammo, beatings, etc.)

• Labor unions’ strikes
• Ben Ali flees: refused by France, goes
  to Saudi Arabia
• Elections October 2011

Question 8

What occurred in Egypt during the Arab Spring ?

Answer 8

• Mubarak, 1981-
  February 2011
• US: $64 bn ($40 bn
  military/security)
• US/West allies
  repress domestic
  population

On April 6 Youth movement began protesting against security forces, take over the Tahrir Square

Question 9

Why is the Arab Spring referred to as a Facebook revolution ?

Answer 9

Social media played a huge role in spreading the movement over many countries, but also reporting facts to the international community.

Also showed it was a movement driven by youth.

Here are the platforms that were used.

1. Social media - Facebook/twitter/youtube
2. News oriented content - Wikileaks and Al Jazeera

“Collateral Murder” - showed Baghdad Airstrike, even killing journalists

Question 10

What were the workers’ and unions’ roles in the Arab Spring ?

Answer 10

Workers’ strikes

1. Ex: Egypt: 1,900 strikes; 1.7M workers in 4
   years
2. Civil disobedience

Question 11

What occurred in Libya during the Arab Spring ?

Answer 11

Gaddafi, 1969-Sept. 2011

• Western sanctions lifted 2004
• Oil: high quality; lots unexplored
• Initial peaceful protests lead to violent repression

Question 12

What were the US motives to intervene in Libya ?

Answer 12

• Humanitarian?
• Need to be seen as doing something
• African Union mediation plans ignored
• Oil

Question 13

Describe NATO’s intervention in Libya.

Answer 13

Benghazi massacre?

No-fly zone/Benghazi protection vs. further bombing campaign

NATO went beyond UNSCR 1973’s no fly zone

Arming the rebels?

Question 14

What occurred in Bahrain ?

Answer 14

US Fifth Fleet - part of the navy stationed there

Sunni minority rule (Shia majority), inequalities

February 2011 onwards: protests and repression

Question 15

How did the West support the dictatorship in Bahrain ?

Answer 15

Obama pushes for $53M weapons deal

Saudi Arabia invasion

Saudi interests

1. Sunni monarchy
2. Oil + Shia combination

Question 16

What occurred in Syria during and since the Arab Spring ?

Answer 16

Peaceful protests initially, violent repression,
escalates to full-scale conflict

Rebels supported by Qatar, Turkey, Saudi
Arabia, US

Assad supported by China, Russia, Iran,
Iraq, Hezbollah

Massive atrocities, killings, committed by the
government against opposition forces

Question 17

What are the results and consequences of the Arab Spring today ?

Answer 17

1. Demonstration effect : in Israel, Jordan, Wisconsin, Greece, Wall Street, Dame Street, etc.
2. Left, youth and workers groups left out of election victories
3. Tunisia: only relative success; elections
   held; but still abuses of power by new
   government
4. Libya: collapse of the state, local militias have
   replaced the state. Attempts to reunify but
   slow
5. Syria: civil war, 250k died, 11M displaced, refugee crisis
6. Yemen: fighting, US involvement
7. Bahrain: Repression by the ruling regime, still
   in place
8. Egypt

• Morsi (Muslim Brotherhood) democratically elected
  president in 2012
• Equivalent to US Tea Party: anti-workers,
  anti-Left, right-wing religious base
• Big protests vs Morsi (2013) (vs his austerity,
  fundamentalist ideology, etc.)

*2013: Military coup removes Morsi

*Sisi (head of the military) now in charge

*Crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood and
government critics

*Ibrahim Halawa, Irish citizen, in prison

*Amnesty International called for his
release

Question 18

What occurred in Yemen during the Arab Spring ?

Answer 18

Protests lead to President Saleh’s
resignation

Political turmoil, government kills 100’s of
protesters

Huthis enter the capital, Saudi Arabia-led
coalition bombing vs Huthis, hundreds of
thousands dead

US involvement (drone strikes vs Al Qaeda)

Question 19

What are the authors (and date) of readings relating to this topic, along with the reading’s main point ?

Answer 19

1. Rivetti and Cavatorta (2021) – discusses the role of protests, saying that the have a transnational dimension, connecting local issues to larger, global concerns.
2. Juan Cole (2011) – discusses Obama’s Inconsistent Policies: President Barack Obama is criticized for what is perceived as inconsistent and self-interested foreign policy decisions, particularly in the Middle East. It is accusing him of inconsistency, self-interest, and hypocrisy in dealing with various countries and issues in the region. It suggests that his actions have contradicted the ideals he espoused in his speeches.
3. Juan Cole (2013) - the text critiques Morsi’s governance, highlighting various decisions and policies that have polarized Egypt and contributed to economic challenges. It suggests that Morsi’s willingness to address the concerns of different segments of society will play a crucial role in determining Egypt’s future stability and prosperity.
4. Lee and Weinthal (2011) – discusses the role of Trade Unions in the Uprisings: Trade unions played a crucial but often overlooked role in the downfall of authoritarian regimes in Tunisia and Egypt. They were instrumental in mobilizing the working class and enabling the pro-democracy movements to thrive.
5. Achcar (2011) – the text states that NATO’s intervention in Libya was primarily justified on the grounds of preventing a potential massacre by Gaddafi’s forces in places like Benghazi. It adds that Libyan rebels were opposed to the presence of foreign troops on Libyan soil, which could complicate future intervention efforts.
6. Chomsky (2011) - U.S. motives in international relations: The U.S. has overarching motives that inform its policy choices globally, with a focus on maintaining military and economic supremacy. In the case of the Middle East, primary concern for the U.S. in this region is control over energy reserves, particularly oil.
7. Abdelrahman (2013) – the text discusses the Egyptian activists who protested against Mubarak’s regime for over a decade and how the transitioned from being protestors in loosely structured networks to being regarded as ‘revolutionaries’ expected to shape the future of Egypt. It touches on NSMs, which are characterized by decentralized and segmented organizational structures, diffuse boundaries, and dependence on members rather than centralized leadership for initiating activities.