TECTONICS: Management of hazards and disasters

Question 1

How have the number of recorded disasters changed since 1960? (have they increased/decreased)

Answer 1

They have increased significantly since 1960

Question 2

What has caused the increase in natural disasters since 1960?

Answer 2

1. Climate change
   - burning fossil fuels= global warming= intensifying storms, droughts and floods
2. Population growth
   - rapid urbanisation= more people in disaster prone areas
3. Environmental degradation
   deforestation/wetland loss= landscapes are more vulnerable
4. Improved disaster detection
   - more disasters are now detected and reported than in the past

Question 3

Pros and cons of disaster statistics

Answer 3

+
More accurate now due to technological advances
+
Modern disaster databases are valuable for identifying patterns and aiding preparedness

Question 4

What are the positives of Disaster statistics?

Answer 4

1.
- more accurate now
- due to technological advances

2.
- Modern disaster databases are valuable for identifying patterns and aiding preparedness

Question 5

What are the negatives of disaster statistics?

Answer 5

1. • data inequality can vary between regions
   • due to differences in resources and infrastructure

2.
- developing countries may have unreported data
- due to limited monitoring capabilities

3.
- Historical data has gaps
- especially for events prior to the digital age
- makes long-term trends harder to assess

4. Declaration of deaths may be influenced by political bias

Question 6

Has there been a change in deaths due to tectonic hazards since 1960?

Answer 6

There has been no real change overall in deaths
e.g.
2012 - 2014= less than 1,000 worldwide deaths
2004 - 2010= over 200,000 deaths - mega disasters skey the data

Question 7

Are volcanic disasters or earthquakes more frequent?

Answer 7

Earthquakes are more frequent

Question 8

Are economic losses due to earthquakes rising?

Answer 8

Yes - averaging $20-$40bn per year
More people who are more affluent= more property to lose (mainly in developed countries)

Question 9

What are Mega-Disasters and what are the characteristics?

Answer 9

Disasters that happen on a large scale

• Have social, economic & environmental impacts
• Communities and governments require immediate support
• cCn impact multiple countries
• Are infrequent but server
• Cannot be fully managed

Question 10

Name the 3 Mega-Disasters (Case Studies)

Answer 10

1. 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
2. 2011 Japanese Tsunami (Tohoku)
3. EY10 eruption, Iceland

Question 11

What happened in the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

Answer 11

• 14 countries surrounding the Indian Ocean affected
• Economic losses and deaths in especially Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Somalia
• Wa made one of largest disasters ever in terms of regional extent

Question 12

What happened in the 2011 Japanese Tsunami (Tohoku)

Answer 12

• Only Japan directly affected but economic impacts had global consequences

Impacts:
- Disruption to ports, factories & power supplies so…
Global car-production supply chain= Slowed
Electronic production= Slowed
(Japan is one of the centres of excellence for technology)

• In addition= had a nuclear meltdown disaster at Fukushima - caused a radioactive leaking of Fukushima power plant - was a catalyst in Germany abandoning its nuclear energy programme

Question 13

What happened in the EY10 eruption?

Answer 13

• over 20 European countries affected by total or partial closure of their airspace
• Ash cloud from eruption disrupted air travel - dangers of jet engines ingesting ash
• Over 100,000 cancelled flights costing over £1 billion in loses

Question 14

What’s a multiple-hazard zone?

Answer 14

When two or more hazards occur at the same time or in rapid succession (one after another).
- combination of tectonic hazards and hydro-meteorological hazards

Tectonic hazards: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, landslides

hydro-meteorological hazards: flood, drought, storms, tropical cyclones

Question 15

What makes the Philippines a Multiple-hazard zone? 4 things

Answer 15

1. Tectonically active - earthquakes and volcanoes occur
2. Geologically young - so has unstable mountain zones prone to tectonic shifting
3. On major tropical storm tracks - which move through the area
4. May suffer from global climate changes -such as El Nino and La Nina oscillations

Question 16

What does the accuracy of prediction and forecasting of tectonic hazards depend on?

Answer 16

The type and location of the hazard

Question 17

Can earthquakes be predicted? If not what can be done?

Answer 17

No but patterns can be identified (Risk forecast)

Question 18

What type of areas can be identified (risk forecasting)?

Answer 18

Areas at high risk:
- areas likely to suffer severe ground shaking and liquefaction
- areas experiencing ‘seismic gaps’: areas that have not experienced an earthquake for some time and are ‘overdue’ can point to areas of high risk

Question 19

Can volcanoes be predicted?

Answer 19

Yes

Question 20

What are signs of an eruption?

Answer 20

• Magma rising which can be detected by heat sensors and satellites
• Changes in surface level as rising magma causes bulges
• Increased emissions of sulphur dioxide and other gases
• Increased seismic activity caused by magma movement detected by seismometers

Question 21

What do scientists use prediction and forecasting to help with?

Answer 21

planning and preparation for hazards

Question 22

What is the difference between prediction and forecasting?

Answer 22

Prediction= Knowing when (temporal scale) and where (spatial scale) a hazard will occur

Forecasting= gives a percentage chance of a hazard occurring over a set period of time

Question 23

Can tsunamis be predicted?

Answer 23

They can be partly predicted however earthquake-induced tsunamis CANNOT

Question 24

How can tsunamis be predicted?

Answer 24

1. Seismometres can tell an earthquake has occured and locate it
2. Then ocean monitoring equipment can detect tsunami in the open sea

Question 25

Why was predicting the Asian 2004 tsunami difficult? (what happened in Indonesia and India) and what was the result of this?

Answer 25

Indonesia: the sensor system had been struck by lightning so didn’t work

India: the warning went to the wrong official

Result= errors in the system increased the number of deaths

Question 26

What happened when trying to predict the the 2011 Japanese tsunami?

Answer 26

The height of the tsunami was underestimated so the warnings were not accurate