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A Year 1 Politics > Strategic Theory > Flashcards

Strategic Theory Flashcards

1
Q

Clausewitz quote

A

“War is the continuation of politics by other means”

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2
Q

Define armed conflict

A

The use of armed force between two parties, concerning government and/or territory, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year

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3
Q

What are the FIVE main types of armed conflict?

A

Interstate, intrastate, internationalised intrastate (external force supports non-state actor), non-state, one-sided violence

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4
Q

Why has conflict declined according to Steven Pinker?

A

Humans have simply become better people

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5
Q

Reporting bias

A

State where violence took place responsible for counting casualties, so can give inaccurate or misleading figures

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6
Q

Define motivation

A

Desire to act in a certain way e.g. attack another nation for territorial gain

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7
Q

Define opportunity

A

Logistical tools that allow one to pursue their motivation e.g. new weapon technology or fast transport links

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8
Q

Example of increased opportunities

A

Industrial revolution railway expansion
Britain 1830: 125 miles of railway track
Britain 1871: Over 13,000 miles

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9
Q

Define bargaining theory

A

Just because states have different ideas or different interests, this does not mean that they will go to war
Bargaining model shows how states can avoid conflict through negotiations

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10
Q

What are the FIVE assumptions of bargaining theory

A

Actors prefer better over worse outcomes
Actors consider each other’s preferences
Compromise can be found
Both sides need to perceive conflict as costly
All costs are known to both parties

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11
Q

The bargaining range

A

Any deal where the territory gained is greater than the territory it would’ve gained through war, once the costs of war are subtracted

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12
Q

What is gained by proving resolve?

A

Acts that are a show of great strength e.g. building large new navy
Intended to get better offer in bargaining by suggesting their costs will be lower or their opponents will be higher
HOWEVER, can be misinterpreted as an act of war

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13
Q

Define commitment problem

A

One state cannot commit to upholding their side of any negotiated deal indefinitely due to the fact they are strengthening at a far greater rate than their opponent

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14
Q

What is preemptive conflict (commitment problem)?

A

A state attacks another one due to fear that the state is imminently going to attack them

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15
Q

What is preventive conflict (commitment problem)?

A

A state attacks another state that is strengthening, due to fears that the strengthening state will gain superiority over them

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16
Q

Example of preemptive conflict

A

Six Day War 1967

Israel attacked Egypt, claiming Egypt were about to launch a military strike against them

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17
Q

Example of preventive conflict

A

2003 US invasion of Iraq

Intended to prevent Saddam Hussein’s regime acquiring nuclear weapons

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18
Q

Define information asymmetries

A

Parties in conflict have an inadequate or inaccurate information regarding the strength of their opposition
This can lead them to suffer from overconfidence

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19
Q

Example of information asymmetry leading to overconfidence

A

World War 1
France believed their fortresses on the German border to be impregnable to German weaponry
Germany underestimated effectiveness of trench warfare
Led to high costs for both sides

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20
Q

Define classical deterrence theory

A

Credible and capable threats can prevent the initiation (and escalation) of conflict

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21
Q

Define spiral theory

A

Conflicts spiral out of control when states inadvertently threaten each other’s security while communicating deterrent threats

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22
Q

Define democratic peace theory

A

Idea that democracies settle disputes through peaceful means and do NOT go to war with one another
Michael W Doyle

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23
Q

Three levels of analysis when explaining war

A

Human nature, form of government and system characteristics

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24
Q

Thinkers who believed a Republic or democratic system prevented conflict

A 
Joseph Schumpeter (liberal pacifism)
Niccolo Machiavelli (inclusion of all classes)
Immanuel Kant
Citizens in a republic act in their OWN interest. War is not in their interest
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25
Q

What undercuts democratic peace theory?

A

They fight wars of aggression and overthrow regimes with different ideologies
Democracies do not hold their leaders accountable to a greater degree than autocracies
The costs of war are not imposed upon all individuals

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26
Q

What is nuclear deterrence theory?

A

Idea that nuclear weapons prevent wars because the costs are far too high and there are no opportunities

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27
Q

Critiques of nuclear deterrence theory

A

Nuclear weapons have existed less than 80 years, not long enough to say it is a rule
China didn’t get WMD until 1964, yet no conflict with West since CCP took power in 1949

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28
Q

Define alliance

A

A method of managing and preventing conflict, whereby groups with shared interests protect each other against potential threats

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29
Q

Features of alliances

A

Balance power by accumulation
Small states bandwagon for “free” protection
e.g. Luxembourg 580,000 pop and 0.42% Defence spend

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30
Q

Effect of alliances on war onset

A

Increases likelihood due to commitment problem
Harder to assess costs so information asymmetries too
HOWEVER, decreases likelihood as signalling that costs are high is easier with more participants
Parties can discourage aggression in their allies

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31
Q

Define collective security

A

Idea that if one state is attacked, all members of the alliance will retaliate (deterrent)

32
Q

Problems with collective security

A

Collective action problem (can’t rely on allies to help)

Joint-decision making problem e.g. Iraq 2003 Germany and France refused

33
Q

Define civil war

A

Fighting between state and non-state groups over control of the government or the territory of a region/ the state

34
Q

Three main ways to explain civil wars

A

Nationalism
Rapid modernisation (political mobilisation)
Inequality

35
Q

Opportunities in civil wars

A

Economic: predation over production e.g. Libyan Civil War 2011-present over oil
Political: citizens aggrieved with regime of a weak state and wish to seize power e.g. Syrian Civil War 2011-present

36
Q

Define grievances

A

Reasons for civil war onset that are NOT opportunity based

Excluded groups from government far more likely to trigger civil war than included groups

37
Q

Stages of grievances to civil war

A

Horizontal inequalities -> intergroup comparison -> evaluation of injustice -> framing and blaming -> grievances -> mobilisation -> claims and repression -> civil war onset

38
Q

Define intervention

A

The convention breaking intrusion into another state’s domestic affairs
UN peacekeeping used to stop civil war recurrence. They have a neutral mandate

39
Q

Types of intervention

A

Diplomatic e.g. UK recognising Juan Guaidó as Venezuelan President
Economic e.g. UN sanctions on Iraq 1990
Military e.g. NATO intervention in Kosovo 1999

40
Q

Four types of peacekeeping

A

Monitoring, traditional peacekeeping, multidimensional, peace enforcement (without consent)

41
Q

What does selection bias describe?

A

Only investigating cases that have peacekeeping missions
Systematic differences between cases with and without peacekeeping
UN accused of choosing ‘easy’ cases, hence their high success rate

42
Q

Effect of intervention on civil war duration?

A

Can escalate civil wars due to commitment problem, rebels are suddenly strengthened greatly
Counter-interventions are triggered which prolong conflict

43
Q

According to Kuperman, why do humanitarian interventions do more harm than
good?

A

Militants may rebel in order for the state to retaliate and commit atrocities that attract intervention
Intervention leads to state failure which escalates fighting

44
Q

Three ways to end a civil war?

A

Negotiated settlement, repression of rebels, partition of territory

45
Q

What is governmental power sharing?

A

Incorporating rebels into government e.g. by giving them cabinet positions
Gives influence over decisions, a veto over biased policies, information of government intentions
Very effective form of power sharing (Mattes and Savun)

46
Q

What is territorial power sharing?

A

Decentralisation of power, giving rebels policy autonomy in a region
Control over local taxes, education
Regional veto over biased policies
Control of police force

47
Q

Problems with power sharing

A

Increased secessionism
Specialists in violence given power e.g. Martin McGuinness
Inhibits compromise and reduces accountability

48
Q

What is state building?

A

Alternative to power sharing. Violent opposition is repressed, leaving only political opposition
Local institutions are made to address grievances
Prevalent before 1990s
Generally leads to greater long-term stability and economic growth than stalemates and rebel victories

49
Q

Problems with state building

A

Predatory, authoritarian states

Geographical issues

50
Q

Define issue indivisibility

A

There can be no compromise or bargaining due to nature of issue e.g. religious spaces like Jerusalem

51
Q

Define partition

A

Civil war outcome that involves both border adjustment and demographic changes
Separations jointly decided by responsible powers

52
Q

What causes civil war recurrence?

A 
Commitment problems (disunited rebels, may be in their interest to resume fighting)
Information asymmetries (especially short wars)
Issue indivisibility
53
Q

Which post-conflict institutions do Chapman and Roeder compare?

A

De facto secessionism and territorial autonomy

54
Q

Chapman and Roeder’s conclusions?

A

Partitions are best way to avoid civil war recurrence
Leads to more democratic outcomes
Decreases risk of violence against civilians
No effect on likelihood of interstate war

55
Q

Apparent conditions for successful partition

A 
Complete population transfer (Kauffman)
De jure (legally recognised) partition rather than secessionist (Chapman and Roeder)
56
Q

Define incompatible identity logic

A

That all mixing of groups will lead to conflict and that power-sharing is unstable
CRITICISM: Northern Ireland works

57
Q

Define nationalist zero-sum logic

A

Idea that everyone in an ethnic group supports a cause and that groups cannot be reconciled
CRITICISM: Individualism as opposed to group think

58
Q

Features of non-state armed conflicts

A

Involve two or more non-state actors (no gov backing or ties)
Lower casualty rates than civil wars, but higher displacement
Can escalate into civil wars
Undermine democratic institutions

59
Q

Define intergroup violence

A

Violence between members of different ethnic or religious groups

60
Q

Three motivations for integroup violence (Balcells et al)

A

Spatial proximity breeds competition (zero sum)
Group segregation reduces positive interactions
Idea that territorial control brings benefits

61
Q

Opportunities for integroup violence

A

Concentrated groups makes it easier to form networks for violence
Spatial proximity with rivals gives greater accessibility
High population and unemployment levels

62
Q

What two components are required for an event to be a riot according to Wilkinson?

A

There is violence

Two or more communally identified groups confront one another at some point

63
Q

Criticism of Balcells et al study

A

Group mixing increases positive interactions
Settlement patterns are due to prior violence (reverse causality)
Timing of violence

64
Q

What makes riots more likely (Wilkinson)

A

Timed around election periods, in areas of close electoral competition
Whether state leadership actively allows or oppresses riot

65
Q

What can prevent riots

A

Police (curfews, mass arrests, increased presence)
Civil society (intra-ethnic punishment, inter-ethnic trust, both sides experiencing losing)
Civil society groups solve commitment problem between different ethnic groups (Varshney)

66
Q

Define one-sided violence

A

The use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians

67
Q

How does Scott Strauss define mass killings

A

10,000 annualised civilian deaths

68
Q

Features of one-sided violence

A

Weakens civilian support for opponent in contested territory
Undertaken by governments with weak military infrastructure
Socialisation tools to fracture societies e.g. rape and murder
Abstention from one-sided violence to win international support

69
Q

Motivations for one-sided violence

A

Rivalry: close electoral races
Revenge: response to earlier violence, strategic and emotional

70
Q

Common explanations for mass killings (and rebuttals)

A 
Deep racial or religious cleavages (anti-semitism more rife in Eastern Europe than in Nazi Germany)
National crises (Democratic crises e.g. Great Depression 1930s)
Totalitarian government (Rwanda did NOT have totalitarian government 1994)
All are victim of selection bias
71
Q

Strauss’ three levels of analysis for Genocide

A

Individual level: individuals have strong inhibitions against killing, but authority and fear overcome these inhibitions
Organisational level: civil society organisations or churches can stop or foster violence. Only works in weak states. Restrained by multi-ethnic civil society
State level: only states have capacity to commit genocide. Restrained by large middle class, reliance on trade and international pressure

72
Q

Motivations for leaders to commit genocide

A

Ideological: nationalism, territorial expansion, collectivisation campaigns
Strategic: defeats insurgents, nullifies threats to the government, forces opponents to surrender

73
Q

Holocaust facts

A

Death of 6 million European Jews
250,000 Sinti (gypsies)
360,000 handicapped people

74
Q

Define terrorism (Pape)

A

Terrorism involves the use of violence by an organisation other than a national government to cause intimidation or fear among a target audience

75
Q

Explain Pape’s view of suicide terrorism

A

Suicide terrorism is particularly effective in coercing an opponent to trigger a disproportionate response
It increases the likelihood of success; it is a very costly signal; and violates norms of violence

76
Q

Criticisms of Pape’s study on suicide terrorism

A

Victim of selection bias
No data for Gaza 1994 or West Bank 1995
Ignores non-suicide attacks so can’t see which method terrorists prefer

77
Q

Suicide terrorism facts

A

Successful in making political gains 50% of time

International military and economic coercion work less than 33% of time

A Year 1 Politics (7 decks)

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