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A Year 1 Politics > Strategic Theory > Flashcards

Strategic Theory Flashcards

1
Q

Clausewitz quote

A

“War is the continuation of politics by other means”

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2
Q

Define armed conflict

A

The use of armed force between two parties, concerning government and/or territory, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year

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3
Q

What are the FIVE main types of armed conflict?

A

Interstate, intrastate, internationalised intrastate (external force supports non-state actor), non-state, one-sided violence

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4
Q

Why has conflict declined according to Steven Pinker?

A

Humans have simply become better people

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5
Q

Reporting bias

A

State where violence took place responsible for counting casualties, so can give inaccurate or misleading figures

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6
Q

Define motivation

A

Desire to act in a certain way e.g. attack another nation for territorial gain

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7
Q

Define opportunity

A

Logistical tools that allow one to pursue their motivation e.g. new weapon technology or fast transport links

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8
Q

Example of increased opportunities

A

Industrial revolution railway expansion
Britain 1830: 125 miles of railway track
Britain 1871: Over 13,000 miles

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9
Q

Define bargaining theory

A

Just because states have different ideas or different interests, this does not mean that they will go to war
Bargaining model shows how states can avoid conflict through negotiations

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10
Q

What are the FIVE assumptions of bargaining theory

A

Actors prefer better over worse outcomes
Actors consider each other’s preferences
Compromise can be found
Both sides need to perceive conflict as costly
All costs are known to both parties

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11
Q

The bargaining range

A

Any deal where the territory gained is greater than the territory it would’ve gained through war, once the costs of war are subtracted

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12
Q

What is gained by proving resolve?

A

Acts that are a show of great strength e.g. building large new navy
Intended to get better offer in bargaining by suggesting their costs will be lower or their opponents will be higher
HOWEVER, can be misinterpreted as an act of war

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13
Q

Define commitment problem

A

One state cannot commit to upholding their side of any negotiated deal indefinitely due to the fact they are strengthening at a far greater rate than their opponent

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14
Q

What is preemptive conflict (commitment problem)?

A

A state attacks another one due to fear that the state is imminently going to attack them

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15
Q

What is preventive conflict (commitment problem)?

A

A state attacks another state that is strengthening, due to fears that the strengthening state will gain superiority over them

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16
Q

Example of preemptive conflict

A

Six Day War 1967

Israel attacked Egypt, claiming Egypt were about to launch a military strike against them

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17
Q

Example of preventive conflict

A

2003 US invasion of Iraq

Intended to prevent Saddam Hussein’s regime acquiring nuclear weapons

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18
Q

Define information asymmetries

A

Parties in conflict have an inadequate or inaccurate information regarding the strength of their opposition
This can lead them to suffer from overconfidence

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19
Q

Example of information asymmetry leading to overconfidence

A

World War 1
France believed their fortresses on the German border to be impregnable to German weaponry
Germany underestimated effectiveness of trench warfare
Led to high costs for both sides

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20
Q

Define classical deterrence theory

A

Credible and capable threats can prevent the initiation (and escalation) of conflict

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21
Q

Define spiral theory

A

Conflicts spiral out of control when states inadvertently threaten each other’s security while communicating deterrent threats

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22
Q

Define democratic peace theory

A

Idea that democracies settle disputes through peaceful means and do NOT go to war with one another
Michael W Doyle

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23
Q

Three levels of analysis when explaining war

A

Human nature, form of government and system characteristics

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24
Q

Thinkers who believed a Republic or democratic system prevented conflict

A 
Joseph Schumpeter (liberal pacifism)
Niccolo Machiavelli (inclusion of all classes)
Immanuel Kant
Citizens in a republic act in their OWN interest. War is not in their interest
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25
What undercuts democratic peace theory?
They fight wars of aggression and overthrow regimes with different ideologies Democracies do not hold their leaders accountable to a greater degree than autocracies The costs of war are not imposed upon all individuals
26
What is nuclear deterrence theory?
Idea that nuclear weapons prevent wars because the costs are far too high and there are no opportunities
27
Critiques of nuclear deterrence theory
Nuclear weapons have existed less than 80 years, not long enough to say it is a rule China didn't get WMD until 1964, yet no conflict with West since CCP took power in 1949
28
Define alliance
A method of managing and preventing conflict, whereby groups with shared interests protect each other against potential threats
29
Features of alliances
Balance power by accumulation Small states bandwagon for "free" protection e.g. Luxembourg 580,000 pop and 0.42% Defence spend
30
Effect of alliances on war onset
Increases likelihood due to commitment problem Harder to assess costs so information asymmetries too HOWEVER, decreases likelihood as signalling that costs are high is easier with more participants Parties can discourage aggression in their allies
31
Define collective security
Idea that if one state is attacked, all members of the alliance will retaliate (deterrent)
32
Problems with collective security
Collective action problem (can't rely on allies to help) | Joint-decision making problem e.g. Iraq 2003 Germany and France refused
33
Define civil war
Fighting between state and non-state groups over control of the government or the territory of a region/ the state
34
Three main ways to explain civil wars
Nationalism Rapid modernisation (political mobilisation) Inequality
35
Opportunities in civil wars
Economic: predation over production e.g. Libyan Civil War 2011-present over oil Political: citizens aggrieved with regime of a weak state and wish to seize power e.g. Syrian Civil War 2011-present
36
Define grievances
Reasons for civil war onset that are NOT opportunity based | Excluded groups from government far more likely to trigger civil war than included groups
37
Stages of grievances to civil war
Horizontal inequalities -> intergroup comparison -> evaluation of injustice -> framing and blaming -> grievances -> mobilisation -> claims and repression -> civil war onset
38
Define intervention
The convention breaking intrusion into another state's domestic affairs UN peacekeeping used to stop civil war recurrence. They have a neutral mandate
39
Types of intervention
Diplomatic e.g. UK recognising Juan Guaidó as Venezuelan President Economic e.g. UN sanctions on Iraq 1990 Military e.g. NATO intervention in Kosovo 1999
40
Four types of peacekeeping
Monitoring, traditional peacekeeping, multidimensional, peace enforcement (without consent)
41
What does selection bias describe?
Only investigating cases that have peacekeeping missions Systematic differences between cases with and without peacekeeping UN accused of choosing 'easy' cases, hence their high success rate
42
Effect of intervention on civil war duration?
Can escalate civil wars due to commitment problem, rebels are suddenly strengthened greatly Counter-interventions are triggered which prolong conflict
43
According to Kuperman, why do humanitarian interventions do more harm than good?
Militants may rebel in order for the state to retaliate and commit atrocities that attract intervention Intervention leads to state failure which escalates fighting
44
Three ways to end a civil war?
Negotiated settlement, repression of rebels, partition of territory
45
What is governmental power sharing?
Incorporating rebels into government e.g. by giving them cabinet positions Gives influence over decisions, a veto over biased policies, information of government intentions Very effective form of power sharing (Mattes and Savun)
46
What is territorial power sharing?
Decentralisation of power, giving rebels policy autonomy in a region Control over local taxes, education Regional veto over biased policies Control of police force
47
Problems with power sharing
Increased secessionism Specialists in violence given power e.g. Martin McGuinness Inhibits compromise and reduces accountability
48
What is state building?
Alternative to power sharing. Violent opposition is repressed, leaving only political opposition Local institutions are made to address grievances Prevalent before 1990s Generally leads to greater long-term stability and economic growth than stalemates and rebel victories
49
Problems with state building
Predatory, authoritarian states | Geographical issues
50
Define issue indivisibility
There can be no compromise or bargaining due to nature of issue e.g. religious spaces like Jerusalem
51
Define partition
Civil war outcome that involves both border adjustment and demographic changes Separations jointly decided by responsible powers
52
What causes civil war recurrence?
``` Commitment problems (disunited rebels, may be in their interest to resume fighting) Information asymmetries (especially short wars) Issue indivisibility ```
53
Which post-conflict institutions do Chapman and Roeder compare?
De facto secessionism and territorial autonomy
54
Chapman and Roeder's conclusions?
Partitions are best way to avoid civil war recurrence Leads to more democratic outcomes Decreases risk of violence against civilians No effect on likelihood of interstate war
55
Apparent conditions for successful partition
``` Complete population transfer (Kauffman) De jure (legally recognised) partition rather than secessionist (Chapman and Roeder) ```
56
Define incompatible identity logic
That all mixing of groups will lead to conflict and that power-sharing is unstable CRITICISM: Northern Ireland works
57
Define nationalist zero-sum logic
Idea that everyone in an ethnic group supports a cause and that groups cannot be reconciled CRITICISM: Individualism as opposed to group think
58
Features of non-state armed conflicts
Involve two or more non-state actors (no gov backing or ties) Lower casualty rates than civil wars, but higher displacement Can escalate into civil wars Undermine democratic institutions
59
Define intergroup violence
Violence between members of different ethnic or religious groups
60
Three motivations for integroup violence (Balcells et al)
Spatial proximity breeds competition (zero sum) Group segregation reduces positive interactions Idea that territorial control brings benefits
61
Opportunities for integroup violence
Concentrated groups makes it easier to form networks for violence Spatial proximity with rivals gives greater accessibility High population and unemployment levels
62
What two components are required for an event to be a riot according to Wilkinson?
There is violence | Two or more communally identified groups confront one another at some point
63
Criticism of Balcells et al study
Group mixing increases positive interactions Settlement patterns are due to prior violence (reverse causality) Timing of violence
64
What makes riots more likely (Wilkinson)
Timed around election periods, in areas of close electoral competition Whether state leadership actively allows or oppresses riot
65
What can prevent riots
Police (curfews, mass arrests, increased presence) Civil society (intra-ethnic punishment, inter-ethnic trust, both sides experiencing losing) Civil society groups solve commitment problem between different ethnic groups (Varshney)
66
Define one-sided violence
The use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians
67
How does Scott Strauss define mass killings
10,000 annualised civilian deaths
68
Features of one-sided violence
Weakens civilian support for opponent in contested territory Undertaken by governments with weak military infrastructure Socialisation tools to fracture societies e.g. rape and murder Abstention from one-sided violence to win international support
69
Motivations for one-sided violence
Rivalry: close electoral races Revenge: response to earlier violence, strategic and emotional
70
Common explanations for mass killings (and rebuttals)
``` Deep racial or religious cleavages (anti-semitism more rife in Eastern Europe than in Nazi Germany) National crises (Democratic crises e.g. Great Depression 1930s) Totalitarian government (Rwanda did NOT have totalitarian government 1994) All are victim of selection bias ```
71
Strauss' three levels of analysis for Genocide
Individual level: individuals have strong inhibitions against killing, but authority and fear overcome these inhibitions Organisational level: civil society organisations or churches can stop or foster violence. Only works in weak states. Restrained by multi-ethnic civil society State level: only states have capacity to commit genocide. Restrained by large middle class, reliance on trade and international pressure
72
Motivations for leaders to commit genocide
Ideological: nationalism, territorial expansion, collectivisation campaigns Strategic: defeats insurgents, nullifies threats to the government, forces opponents to surrender
73
Holocaust facts
Death of 6 million European Jews 250,000 Sinti (gypsies) 360,000 handicapped people
74
Define terrorism (Pape)
Terrorism involves the use of violence by an organisation other than a national government to cause intimidation or fear among a target audience
75
Explain Pape's view of suicide terrorism
Suicide terrorism is particularly effective in coercing an opponent to trigger a disproportionate response It increases the likelihood of success; it is a very costly signal; and violates norms of violence
76
Criticisms of Pape's study on suicide terrorism
Victim of selection bias No data for Gaza 1994 or West Bank 1995 Ignores non-suicide attacks so can't see which method terrorists prefer
77
Suicide terrorism facts
Successful in making political gains 50% of time | International military and economic coercion work less than 33% of time

A Year 1 Politics (7 decks)

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