SPRING Counterfactual Thinking Flashcards
what is counterfactual thinking
how things could have turned out different
if..then..
change to desired outcome
explain the past and prep for the future - affect decisions and future intent
what is semifactual thinking
even if.. then…still
change events leaduing up to outcome but not change outcome
antecedents of coutnerfactual thinking
what triggers counterfactuals?
closeness of event and negative outcome/affect
closeness of event - antecedent of counterfactual thinking (kahenman and tversky)
how close you are to percieve something as having nearly occured
mr crane and mr tees - lateness to catch flight - regret flight that 5 mins delay and still miss
negative outcome/affect - antecedent of couterfactuals
more counterfactuals if outcome was neg>positive or makes someone feel worse
change to desired
BUT counterfac can have a knock on effect - feel worse
what do people think about in counterfactuals
generate alternatives to reality
BUT limited -
appear to be regularities in outcomes generated
what are the 5 main couterfactual biases
exceptionality, controllability, temporal order, causal order, action effect
describe exceptionality effect
more likely to change what is an exception to the norm
kahenman and tversky - mr jones car crash
can be exception to habit (intrapersonal) or exception to social rules (interpersonal)
describe controllability
focus on aspect that is under the persons control opposed to changing external factors
regardless of if uncontrollable factor is internal or external to the protagonist
describe temporal order
last event most salient and lead to counterfactual even though each event leading up to it was independent
ie last score of a game
describe causal order
if events are in causal order (not independent) then likely to change the first event
describe action effect
tendency to regret actions in short term and regret non actions in long term
two consequences of counterfactuals
impact future actions and choices
contrast effects and causal inferences
describe contrast effects
counterfactual acts as an anchor to which reality is compared
upwards or downwards comparison
feel worse if counterfactual better outcome and feel better if counterfactual is worse
describe causal inferences
mental undoing puts weight onto what can change
implicated feelings of blame and guilt
identify causal explanation and flagged as something to change in the future
how do we make judgements in the causaility of events on outcomes?
causal judgements
responsibiity and blame
affective consequences
describe causal judgements (mccloy and byrne)
how we assign weight onto the cause of an outcome
olympic runners and pain killers -
causal drug in winning > counterfactual 6.23 > semifactual 5.25 > control 4.26
generate own statements of causailty - coutnerfactual increase causality of events and semi decrease
describe responsibility and blame
more likely to assign blame if change in beh likely to have diff outcome
more likely to assign blame if chane in action undoes the outcome than when it doesnt
describe affective consequences
conterfactuals linked to regret, shame, elation, joy, suprise, disappointment and relief - depends on the focus and direction
affective consequence of counterfactuals - mccloy and byrne
counterfactual increases regret
semifactual decreases regret
niedenthal, tagney and gavanski 1995 affective consequence
if focus on behaviour then feeel guilt
ie if only i had done …
if focus on personality then feel shame
ie if only i wasnt so…
roese 1994 affective consequence of counterfactual
downward coutnerfactual - feel better
upward counterfactual - feel worse
BUT upward relate to performance - feel worse so try more next time and improve in future (anagram task)
why are counterfactuals useful
onterfactuals identify what we can change
semifactuals identify what we cant
allows reflection on past actions to prevent negative consequences in the future
when are we more likely to engage in downwards counterfactuals
whe nthe situation is not repeated and is percieved as out of out control
makes feel better about the situation and reflect about how could have been worse and wasnt
k+T mr jones
exceptionality effect
leave ealy- change time
diff route - change route
- dont focus on what is out of his control
medvec madey and gilovich 1995
closeness antecendent of couterfactuals
silver medallists feel worse than bronze
closer to goal of gold whereas bronze just happy that did better than most below them (not as close to gold)
read life example of closeness to goal as an antecedent of counterfactual thinking
stepping into road and realising there is an oncoming car
“if i didnt notice that car i could have died”
davis et al 1995 neg outcome and antecedent of counterfactuals
more counterfactuals generated following those who recently expereinced death of child - grief
neg affect = increased counterfac and
counterfac = increased neg affect
byrne 2016 dysfunctional counterfactuals and neg affect
regret that follows from counterfactual thinking is associated with depression
depressed people reported to generate more unreasonable alternatives to life events
markman and miller 2006 dysfunctional counterfactuals and neg affect
mild to mod depressed - more counterfactuals about controllable aspects of neg academic events - put things into perspective
severely depressed - more counterfactuals about uncontrollable, unreasonable and characterological - exacerbate feelings of self blame and worsens symptoms
define an unreasonable counterfactual
byrne 2016
can by definition be controllable
unlikely to be reasonable as unlikely to be able to be performed fully by the individual
“if only i never put myself is risky situations, there would be no chance of me getting hurt”
define intrapersonal exceptions of normality
adherence to or deviation from habitual modes of behaviour
define interpersonal exceptions of normality
adherence to or deviations from societal norms and expectations
gavanski and wells 1989 exceptionality and norm correspondence effect
‘andrea’ fails exam
- failure norm to self
- failure exceptional
2 normal and 2 exceptional events described that led up to exam
NCE - neg outcomes caused by neg antecedent, exceptional outcome caused by exceptional antecedent and vise versa
BUT only intrapersonal (self failure)
describe girotto, legrenzi and rizzo 1991 controllability - mr bianchi
mr bianchi
4 alt to death of wife based on active decision actions or passive uncontrollable events
ie enter bar, flock of sheep, lorry in car park, tree trunk in road
more ocunterfactuals if bar > other as controllable by protagonist
miller and gunasegaram 1990
temporal order
alicia and laura toss coin and if both get the same then win $1000
alicia first and toss tails
laura second and toss heads
- laura more guily even though chances independent
byrne et al 2000 temporal order
two contestants win £1,000 if pick the same color card
pick black - interruption and restart - pick black and next pick red - temp effect, blame first person
pick black - interruption and restart - pick red and next pick black then temp eliminated
+ depends on the order of events in the world, not their descriptive order
- temporality effect arises because first event is presupposed and so immutable; elimination of
the temporality effect arises because availability of counterfactual alternative to the first event creates an opposing tendency to mutate
wells taylor and turtle 1987 william scenario
causal order
man takes shortcut - broken glass- flat tyre - speeds - speed ticket
most likely to try and undo the shortcut
causal order
david and lehman 1995
lose spouse or child in motor accident or to SIDS
both report mentally undoing loss
ie lose baby from SIDS regret not acting on fuss from baby
gilovich and medvec 1994 action effect
dave and jim at elite uni
dave stays where he is - doesnt like and wishes gone
jim go to uni - doesnt like and wished stayed
report jim regret more short term but dave regret more long term
- psychological processess decrease regret of actions taken and increase regret of actions no acted upon
kahenman 1995 short term and long term regret
short term = “hot regret”
- direct reaction following outcome
long term = “wistfull regret”
- less intense, assoc with sad fantasies of what might have been
zeelenberg et al 2002 exceptionality override
regretting short term inaction
regret of ST and LT deopends on norm of situation
fb team with win or losing record
more regret if change team strategy if winning
more regret if dont change team strategy if losing
byrne and mceleney 1999
exceptionality override of ST and LT regret
undo LT inaction when consequences of possible action are unknown/may be better than consequence of inaction (upward)
undo action in LT when alt consequence is known
ritov and baron 1990 action aand ST and LT regret
risks of bad outcome from vaccine smaller than disease outcome
but inaction minimise regret even though increases risk
define upward counterfactuals
better outcome to reality
feel worse
amp regret guilt and shame
define downwards counterfactuals
worse outcome to reality
feel better
amp relief satisfaction and sympathy
teigen and jensen 2011 downward counterfactuals
tourist survivors of 2004 tsunami in south east asia
spec how things could have been worse and view selves as survivors > victims
macrae 1992 responsibility and blame
first time at restaurant = recomment greater find following accident (unusual) than at restaurant go to a lot
zeelenberg and pieters 2001
counterfac and responsibility
if feel personally responsible for outcome then incease regret
roese 1994 counterfac and responsibility
feelings can determine intent to change in the future
downward make feel better
- when no opp to change then increase downward (teigen and jensen tsunami)
BUT upward feel worse - increase intent to change - anagram task
