Seeking Wisdom

Question 1

What is association bias?

Answer 1

associating a stimulus with an outcome. I.E. “don’t shoot the messenger.”

Question 2

What miscalculations can come from failure to consider scale & limits

Answer 2

Changes in size & time can have disproportional effects on form function & Behavior. I.E. volume grows faster than surface area. Also applies to weakest link constraints.

Question 3

What are 4 miscalculations people tend to make in relation to cause & effect.

Answer 3

1. Confusing causation & correlation
2. Assuming large causes for large effects. (challenger disaster).
3. Fixing effects rather than causes. (I.E. picking up trash instead of installing more trash cans.)
4. Ignoring alternative explanations (outcome bias).

Question 4

3 basic steps for simplification

Answer 4

1. Be problem oriented not method oriented.
2. Focus on what’s knowable and important
3. Ask the right questions