Farsighted

Question 1

The 3 phases and their 2 steps from the Farsighted decision tree

Answer 1

1. Mapping
   - -• Generate options: 3 or more choices
   - -• Seek out diversity of opinion (age, gender, professions, etc.
2. Predicting
   - -• Build a scenario plan: Tell yourself 3 different stories about each option (things get better, things get worse, things get weird)
   - -• Run a pre-mortem: once you’ve decided on an option, run a pre-mortem to fully explore how things can go wrong.
3. Deciding
   - -• Consider the probabilities: quantify how likely the outcomes are
   - -• Weight the values: Create a list of values/traits important in the decision and weigh the importance of each value. Grade each option on the value, and multiply the grade by the weight. Add up the weighted grades for each value.