Sectoral outlooks

Question 1

Energy demand by sector

1. What can be said overally
2. Road and non-road (what energy source by 2050 will mainly be used according to each WEO scenarios)
3. What can be say overally

Answer 1

1. • Entering the Era of electricity
     * Transport is the key into the
     future
     * Hydrogen is uncertain … even
     under the ammonia medium
     * Bio is a bridge energy

2.1 Road: STEPS(~90 EJ): Oil is still the main enrgy source (~75%), electricity and bioenergy use increase slighly
APS (~70EJ): Oil use decrease and electricity use increase (~45% each), the remaining 10% is bioenergy and hydrogen
NZE (~45 EJ): Oil use reduces considerably and electricity is the main source (~70%) followed by hydrogen (~15%)

2.2 In non road, the scenario is almost the same with a phase out of oil which is more drastic in the NZE scenario where oil is replaced by hydrogen-based fuels, bioenergy, electricity and a bit of hydrogen
In APS, oil is 50% and the other 50% is splitted amoung Bioenergy (highest share), H2bsed fuel and electricity
in STEPS, Oil remain the main source (~80%), the remaining sources being natural gas, bioenergy and electricity

Question 2

1. What can be said in general about the consumpotion by sectors
2. What is the projected energy demand by sector in 2050

(sectors: Transport, Buildings, Manufacturing, Non-energy, Other)

Answer 2

1. Transport share decrease due to
   more efficient EV.
   * Building demand increase due to
   space cooling while space heating
   decrease due to heat pumps
   diffusion.
   * Technological efficiency and recycling
   moderate the increase in
   manufacturing.
2. The total energy demand from all these sectors is around 500 EJ/yr

1- Transport: ~25%
2- Buildings: ~30%
3- Manufacturing: ~30%
4- Non-enregy + other: ~15%

Question 3

1. How was the electric vehicles growth from 2010 to 2022?
   (linear? exponential?)
2. How many electric vehicles (EV) in 2022
3. Who is the leader in EV

Answer 3

1. EV has grown exponentially since 2010
2. around ~26 million cars in 2022
3. The leader in EV penetration is China with around 50% of all EVs (40% BEV and 10% PHEV) , followed by Europe with ~
   35% (20% BEV and 15% PHEV), and around 10% in the USA
4. Also, China had 30% of the sales share of EV in 2022, followed by Europe with around 20%

Question 4

1. EU Ban on ICE in 2035, what does the approved regulation “Fit for 55 package” says about cars in 2035?
2. What is France’s 2023 EV’s sales proportion

Answer 4

1. Under the European Green Deal, the
   European Commission has approved
   the Fit for 55 package, which is aiming
   for a CO2 reduction of 55% before
   2030 and 100% by 2035 (“all new cars
   registered as of 2035 will be tailpipe
   zero emission”)
   * A tale of three transitions:
   * Ecological
   * Digital
   * Energy
2. France 2023, EV represent 21% of
   new sales.

Question 5

1. When will Hydrogen be competitive? what is the levelised cost of H2 (grey, blue, green)

Answer 5

1. grey: Depending on regional gas prices, the levelized cost of hydrogen production from natural gas ranges from USD 0.5 to USD 1.7 per kilogramme (kg).

Blue: Using CCUS technologies to reduce the CO2 emissions from hydrogen production increases the
levelised cost of production to around USD 1 to USD 2 per kg.

green: Using renewable electricity to produce hydrogen costs USD
3 to USD 8 per kg.

Question 6

Aviation (IEA)

1. What are the substitution fuels that can be used to replace oil (kerosene) in the aviation field
2. What are the share that should be reached to meet NZE goal

Answer 6

1. The more difficult fossil fuel to
   replace due to energy intensity
   /volume and weight.
   * Bio jet kerosene is seen as a transition fuel
   * Synthetic fuel kerozene (efuel) is seen as the ultimate solution but it is expansive.
2. Bio jet and synthetique are the mains fuel to reach net zero (40% each) oil will only be around 5-10%, and the aviation total energy demand should be around 15EJ

Question 7

MARINE (DNV)

What is the transition plan for marine? what will be the substitutes from oil by 2025

Answer 7

The totl energy demand of this sector is projected to increase by 2050 (~14 EJ)

Oil use reduce from almost 100% today to less than 10% in 2050 being substituted by Ammonia (~30%), Bioenergy (~25%), E-fuels (~25%), natural gas (<10%) and electricity(<5%)

Question 8

Building (IEA)

What are the main change in the building sector to reach the NZE goals or even decrease emissions

Answer 8

Biomass is a transition solution
* Electricity with heat pump are the
end game in NZE scenario.
* Energy efficiency for space heating
is the key factor

Question 9

ELECTRICITY (DNV)
1. general view

2. Current electricity mix 2022
3. Electricity mix in 2050 to be NZE

Answer 9

1. Demand level is
   dependent on
   assumptions on EV
   penetration and heat
   pumps usage.
   * Solar PV is king!
   * Natural gas is a bridge.
   * Nuclear is uncertain.
2. Coal: 30%
   natural gas: 24%
   Oil: ~3%
   Nuclear: ~10%
   hydro: 15%
   Wind: ~5%
   solar: ~4%
   other RNE: ~3%
3. Coal: 0%
   natural gas: 0%
   Oil: ~0%
   fossil fuels with ccus: ~3%
   Nuclear: ~10%
   hydro: 10%
   Wind: ~30% (offs: 20, on:10)
   solar: ~38%
   other RNE: ~8%

Question 10

Electricity investment (DNV)

Where the electricity investment are made now?

Answer 10

• Solar and wind (massive in NZE almost 500B$ in each)
• But also transmission
  and distribution
  especially in emerging
  countries (massive NZE almost ~700B$)
  *Some investment in nuclear and also in storage, in other renewables and in hydro (~100B$ each)
• No new investment in
  coal in most scenarios