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Energy Outlook > Regional trajectories > Flashcards

Regional trajectories Flashcards

1
Q

What is the impact of population and economy growth on energy demand?

A

Generally, it increases energy demand for developing and BRICS countries and tends to reach a plateau for developed countries

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2
Q

What is the typicall efficiency of ICE and EV

A
  1. ICE use 25-30% of the energy present in 1 liter of gasoline
  2. EV use up to 80% of the Kwh in a battery
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3
Q

Prospect of energy demand by region by 2050

(Electricity share in final demand, renewables part, CO2 trend, others…)

  1. North america
A
  1. energy transition is boosted but not fast enough
  2. Share of electricity in final demand doubles reaching 41% by 2050
  3. CO2 capture by DAC (direct air contact) reach almost 50Mt/yr by 2050
  4. Solar, wind and utility-scale storage grows respectively by 15, 8, and 20 folds.
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4
Q

Prospect of energy demand by region by 2050

(Electricity share in final demand, renewables part, CO2 trend, others…)

  1. Europe
A
  1. Russia gas supply should disappear from energy mix
  2. Electricity demand will double by 2050 du to of electrification of sectors like transport
  3. 45% growth of transmission and distribution lines and 4 times more interconnections with neighboring regions
  4. Emissions decline by 86% from 1990 levels, but risk of not meeting 2030 targets if stricter EU targets not implemented
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5
Q

Prospect of energy demand by region by 2050

(Electricity share in final demand, renewables part, CO2 trend, others…)

  1. OECD PACIFIC
A
  1. by 2028 all new power generating capacity additions will be based on renewables or nuclear
  2. Nuclear power generation double by 2050
  3. The economy is decoupling rapidly from emissions and energy
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6
Q

Prospect of energy demand by region by 2050

(Electricity share in final demand, renewables part, CO2 trend, others…)

  1. Middle east and North Africa
A
  1. Electricity share of final energy demand more than doubles to 32% in 2050
  2. Wind and solar provide 77% of electicity, solar contributing 46%
  3. Annual hydrogen production grows from 0.2 Mt in 2030 to 9.3 Mt in 2050
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7
Q

Prospect of energy demand by region by 2050

(Electricity share in final demand, renewables part, CO2 trend, others…)

  1. China
A
  1. Electricity’s share of energy demand doubles to 44% in 2050 , the highest of all regions with more than 90% from renewables
  2. Share of coal reduces from 60% (current) –> 24% (in 2040) –> 5% (2050)
  3. From 2022 to 2050, chinese energy and carbon intensity will respectively decrease 54% and 60%
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8
Q

Prospect of energy demand by region by 2050

(Electricity share in final demand, renewables part, CO2 trend, others…)

  1. India
A
  1. Energy demand driven by manufacturing and economic development
  2. Growth of space cooling energy demand in buildings
  3. Wind and solar will make 50% of the electricity mix by 2050
  4. Coal will have a 20% share in primary energy mix by 2050 (the highest in all regions)
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9
Q

Prospect of energy demand by region by 2050

(Electricity share in final demand, renewables part, CO2 trend, others…)

  1. Africa
A
  1. Bioenergy is wood for cooking
  2. Decrease of oil and gas exports, due to production declines and regional consumption increase
  3. Wind and solar will make 70% of electricity mix by 2050
  4. Transmission and distribution lines will triple (3x), but less than 20% of the population will have grid access by 2050
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10
Q

Prospect of energy demand by region by 2050

(Electricity share in final demand, renewables part, CO2 trend, others…)

  1. Latin America
A
  1. Fossil fuels will be meet half of final energy demand in 2050, dominated by oil (27%) and natural gas (22%)
  2. Solar PV and wind power grows to 62% of power generation in 2050
  3. 23 Mt/yr of hydrogen and derivatives are exported by 2050
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11
Q
  1. What is energy intensity?
  2. What is the trend of energy intensity by 2050
A
  1. Energy consumption/unit GDP
  2. All regions experience a decline in this
    measure due mainly to efficiency gains
    associated with the steady electrification
    of energy end-use.
    * Russia remains the region with highest
    energy intensity in 2050.
    * Europe continues to require the least
    amount of energy per dollar of economic
    activity, followed by South East Asia, and
    OECD Pacific.
    * By 2050, regional differences are,
    however, minor as regional energy
    intensities trend towards 2 MJ/USD
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12
Q
  1. What is carbon intensity?
  2. What is the trend of CO2 intensity by 2050 (in Europe, north America, OECD Pacific, Asia, Africa, Russia)
  3. What will be the world carbon intensity by 2050?
A
  1. Carbon intensity is measured as grams
    of CO2 per megajoule of primary energy
    consumption.
  2. Decarbonization is rapid in Europe,
    OECD Pacific, and North America with
    their carbon intensities declining by
    80%, 67%, and 65%, respectively.
    * North East Eurasia and Sub-Saharan
    Africa have the least improvement in
    carbon intensity (29% and 13%).
    * Russia will become the most carbonintensive energy system in 2050.
  3. The spread between the leading and
    lagging region remains fairly consistent
    between 2022 and 2050 at some 30
    gCO2/MJ.
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13
Q
  1. What is Electricity intensity in energy demand ?
  2. Who is heading ahead in electrification?
  3. Who is lagging behind?
A
  1. Electrification is measured as the share of
    electricity in the final energy demand
    mix.
  2. This share is increasing everywhere and is
    fastest in Sub-Saharan Africa, where
    electrification will more than double,
    from 6% in 2022 to 14% in 2050.
    * By 2035, Greater China will overtake
    OECD Pacific as the most electrified
    region with electricity meeting 33% of
    final energy. In 2050, Greater China leads
    with electrification at 44%, followed
    closely by Europe, North America and
    OECD Pacific.
  3. By then, North East Eurasia and SubSaharan Africa lag behind the rest of the
    world by a large margin.
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14
Q
  1. What do renewables include?
  2. Who has the highest share of renewables and why
  3. growth prospect in the Middle east, North Africa, OECD
  4. Most of the world
A
  1. Renewables include biomass, solar, wind,
    geothermal, and hydropower.
  2. Because of its high share of traditional
    biomass, Sub-Saharan Africa remains the
    region with the highest share of
    renewables.
  3. The Middle East and North Africa will see
    the fastest relative growth rate in this
    measure, from 2% in 2022 to 27% in
    2050, but because fossil fuels will still be
    dominant in 2050, it will have the secondlowest renewables share by then.
    * OECD Pacific will see the second-largest
    relative increase, with its share of
    renewables growing from 9% to 48%.
  4. Most of the world clusters between 40%
    and 60% of renewables in primary energy
    consumption by 2050.
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Energy Outlook (5 decks)

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