Global scenarios

Question 1

When IEA was created and what was its original purpose?

Answer 1

The IEA was created in 1974 to help co-ordinate a collective response to major disruptions in the supply
of oil. While oil security this remains a key aspect of our work, the IEA has evolved and expanded
significantly since its foundation

Question 2

What does IEA do now?

Answer 2

Taking an all-fuels, all-technology approach, the IEA recommends policies that enhance the reliability,
affordability and sustainability of energy. It examines the full spectrum issues including renewables, oil,
gas and coal supply and demand, energy efficiency, clean energy technologies, electricity systems and
markets, access to energy, demand-side management, and much more.“

Question 3

What are the main scenarios in the world energy outlook (WEO)?

Answer 3

1. Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), which sets out a narrow but achievable pathway for the
   global energy sector to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.
2. Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), which assumes that all climate commitments made by
   governments around the world, including Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and longer
   term net zero targets, will be met in full and on time.
3. Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which reflects current policy settings based on a sector-by-sector
   assessment of the specific policies that are in place, as well as those that have been announced by
   governments around the world.
4. Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) integrates a “well below 2 °C” pathway, the SDS represents a
   gateway to the outcomes targeted by the Paris Agreement. Like the NZE, the SDS is based on a surge
   in clean energy policies and investment that puts the energy system on track for Paris agreement
   goals of less than 2°C in 2070 and 1180Gt carbon emission budget in 2100.

Question 4

What countries fully implemented the following policies:
1. Carbon pricing
2. Minimum energy performance standards for motors
3. Public procurement of low-emisions materials
4. Funds for industrial innovation

Answer 4

1. US
2. China
3. Japan and Korea
   4***. European Union (partially on the second and 3rd)

Question 5

According to each WEO scenario, what temperatures (in degree C) should be reached by 2100

Answer 5

1. NZE: less than 1.5 (around 1.4)
2. SDS: a bit higher than 1.5 (1.6)
3. APS: around 2.1
4. STEPS: around 2.6

Question 6

1. What is the current (2023) approximation of CO2 emisions in the world

Answer 6

1. around 40Gt CO2 in 2023 and around 33Gt CO2 in 2020

Question 7

According to each WEO scenario how much CO2 emissions should we reach by 2050

Answer 7

1. NZE: 0
2. SDS: 8 GtCO2
3. APS: 21 GtCO2
4. STEPS: 33 GtCO2

Question 8

What is the main takeaway about energy supply to reach NZE by 2050?

Answer 8

1. We need to considerably reduce the energy demand while increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix (around 70%)
2. In NZE scenario, net oil demand should be negative
3. in NZE by 2030, The share of electric cars should increase to 20%, that will allow to push out the use of Oil, however, the petrochemical products will barely decrease

Question 9

in the different WEO scenario what is the behavior of Oil and Gas investments

Answer 9

1. NZE: considerable decrease of the investment in existing fields and no more (0) investments in new fields by 2050
2. APS: Slight decrease in investments in existing and new fields
3. STEPS: investments in existing and new fields, slightly increase

Question 10

Impact of WEO scenarios on the price of oil and gas

Answer 10

WEO scenarios suggest a decrease in oil and gas demand, which will result in a lower price on the longer run