sales forecasting (HL)

Question 1

what r 3 types of SF methods?

Answer 1

1 - casual models
2 - time series analysis
3 - quantitative techniques

Question 2

casual models + steps?

Answer 2

• looks at similarities between IV and DV.
  IV = production costs, labor turnover, income, product pricing, demographic changes.
  DV= sales
  steps:
  1- look at how much each of the IVs contribute to changes in the DV.
  2 - make scatter plot
  3 - line of best fit
  4 - extrapolate and make decisions.

Question 3

time series analysis?

Answer 3

identify trends in previous sales, and forecast future sales depending on that - by assuming that past trends will continue.
IV:time
DV: sales
1-scatter plot - w moving avg (random, cyclical, seasonal avg changes).
2-line of best fit
3-extrapolate.

Question 4

qualitative techniques/analysis?

Answer 4

• market research
  understand trends in ext envio
  buying pref + behaviors

Question 5

+/- of SF

Answer 5

+:
based on ur past data = reliable and accurate
good for future planning
min risk
allocate budgets
good decision making
-:
not 100%
not enuf data
regular changes in ext and int envio
bus should have flexibility
should use all or many diff methods to forecast sales.