Risk Treatment & Adaptation Options Flashcards
What is risk treatment?
Selection and implementation of measures to modify risk
What is the goal of options evaluations and adaptive planning?
To determine how to adapt to climate change and reduce risk in the future.
Uncertainty has to be managed carefully based on:
- how fast climate change is
- effects of climate change
- wider effects of climate change
What is affected by options and evaluations related to risk and adaptation?
- existing development
- new development
- below and above ground infrastructure
- design and location of new major infrastructure
How can we adapt?
- anticipatory/reactive adaptation
- private (by individuals)
- public (by govt)
- autonomous
- planned
- maladaptive adaptation (increases risk)
What does a cost-benefit analysis involve?
1) Transforming costs and benefits into monetary values
2) Calculating NPV
3) Calculating ratios
What is Value of a Statistical Life (VSL)?
How much society is willing to pay to reduce the risk of death.
VSL is used to assess potential benefits of policies or safety measures aimed at reducing mortality risks.
Measures that reduce risk to life are evaluated with cost-benefit analysis.
What is the risk acceptance criteria?
If risk is above tolerable limit, action must be taken
What is As Low As Reasonably Practicable?
ALARP is reversed burden of proof. Measure must be implemented UNLESS it can be shown that the cost is far too high
What is Cautionary Principle?
Not acting when there’s uncertainty linked to consequences. Level of caution must be balanced with other concerns like cost.
What is precautionary principle?
If consequences of an activity could be serious and are uncertain, precautionary measures should be taken OR the activity shouldn’t be carried out. Always take measure to reduce risk if there’s uncertainty!
Multi criteria evaluation of risk and options considers:
- risk reducing potential
- cost
- environmental impacts
- cultural appropriateness
- community acceptance
- opportunity cost
- robustness to uncertainty
Multi criteria evaluation for climate adaptation option include:
- total cost of options
- risk reduction
- ecology
- landscape
- cultural heritage
- social and cultural wellbeing
- public access and recreation
- legal risk
- adaptability
How communities develop can make them more ____/ less ___ to extreme events
resilient; vulnerable
Broader, societal changes can have ___ ____ that increase ___ to shocks and stressors
positive; co-benefits; resilience
What is engineering resilience?
Capacity of a system to return to the same state following a disturbance.
Robustness: resistance to disturbances.
Recovery: speed to return to the former state.
What is ecological resilience?
Magnitude of disturbance before shifting to a different state.
Robustness: resistance to a changing state.
Resourcefulness: ability to reorganise so to retain the same function.
What is specific resilience?
of what; to what. specific systems; to specified shocks. 4 R’s!!!
1) Robustness: ability to withstand shock
2) Redundancy: reduce vulnerability with redundancy
3) Resourcefulness: capability of a system improve/ adapt
4) Rapidity: speed to return to functionality
What is general resilience?
System’s characteristics that enable it to respond to disturbances.
Capacity to resist and adapt to the unexpected.
Multiple potentially unknown disturbances.
Resilience definitions in general:
- ability to adapt and recover
- speed of recovery
- ‘bouncing back’
What are the common components of resilience?
1) Ability of a system to maintain/ quickly restore functionality
2) Ability of system to transform for the better following a disruption
What are the dimensions of resilience?
Anticipate, prepare, absorb, adapt, and transform.
What is the formal definition of resilience?
Characteristics of a system enabling it to achieve desired functionality during a specific time, following an event
Factors to consider for resilience for wellbeing includes:
- Infrastructure
- Community capacity
- Equity
- Potential for maladaptation
Infrastructure resilience is dominated by …
the ability of social units to mitigate hazards, contain effects of disasters and carry out recovery to minimise social disruption and mitigate effects of future EQ.
A resilient system should:
- reduce failure probability
- reduce consequences from failure
- reduce time to recovery
Dimensions of infrastructure resilience:
The 4 Rs:
1) Robust: withstand and not lose functionality
2) Redundancy: substitute components and maintain functionality
3) Resourcefulness: capacity to meet required functionality
4) Rapidity: how quickly to recover
What is network resilience?
Determines how a system responds to a node or edge (link) removal
What is the input and output of network resilience?
Input: removal of nodes/edges
Output: changes in network properties and/or functionality
Explain the 2 types of node removals.
1) Error
- random removal of nodes
- stochastically (randomly)
- some error probability for all nodes
2) Attack
- selective removal of most connected nodes
- deterministically
- attacker knows hubs
How to evaluate resilience?
Stochastic analysis - Monte Carlo/ Risk analysis
How to improve network resilience?
- strengthening different nodes/ edges
- accept failure and ensure quick recovery (safe to fail)
- relocate or off-grid options
What is the inherent resilience of community capacity?
Allows the system to absorb impacts and cope with an event and post-event adaptations that help system to change and learn to an achievable acceptable level of functioning.
What is community capacity?
Capacity to anticipate, prepare, transform, adapt and absorb.
Explain bridging.
Relationship between typical social groups e.g., different economic classes.
Explain bonding.
Deepening connections you already have e.g., getting closer to collegues atr work
Explain linking.
connecting with decision makers and officials with influence.
What are the guiding principles of community resilience?
- cooperation and collaboration
- stewardship/ kaitakitanga
- prioritises the most vulnerable
- long-term adaptive thinking and development of adaptation pathways and plans
- prioritising actions with multiple benefits/ low-regrets
What should be done before a hazards?
Adapt, prepare, anticipate.
What should be done following a hazards?
Optimise restoration, help those in need, build back better and/ or relocate
What are the characteristics of a ‘hard’ intervention?
- rely on built human infrastructure
- complex/ capital intensive
- high scale disturbance
- lack flexibility
- uses foreign owned technology
What are the characteristics of a ‘soft’ intervention?
- natural infrastructure
- empowering local communities
- simple and local tech
- ability to respond to changes
What is maladaptation?
Action taken to reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change which impacts adversely on/ increases the vulnerability of other systems. Can unintentionally increase vulnerability.
What are the 5 types of maladaptation?
1) Increase GHG emissions
2) Disproportionately burdening the most vulnerable
3) Increase opportunity costs
4) Reduced incentive to adapt
5) Path dependency
Explain how sea walls are an example of maladaptation.
This is a classic example of reduced incentive to adapt. It makes people think they are safe meaning development becomes encouraged which causes risks from large events.
What is salience?
Being noticeable such as acute shocks.
What does increased salience mean?
It means more people pay attention to that risk, act and demand action on that risk - regardless of whether that action reduces risk or not.
Fear of maladaptation leading to inaction is _____
maladaptation
Increases in living standards in cities increases:
- electricity access
- improved sanitation
- improved drinking water
- clean fuels for cooking and heating
AND - reduces malnutrition
Cities = complex
What are examples of engineering integration to societal systems (transportation engineering and infrastructure engineering)?
Transportation engineering: realising that streets are relevant to water resources – incorporating transport and water concerns.
Infrastructure engineering: understanding that demand on electricity follows similar patterns to water demand and have potential to be improved by integrated management.
Why build cities?
- services for people
- designing infrastructure to best provide them
What are the challenegs to cities?
- natural hazards
- energy use and sustainability
- chronic diseases
- etc
What do engineers and planners influence in societal systems?
- shape of built environment
- zoning
- housing (affordability and suitability)
- transportation
How to enhance community resilience through people oriented design?
- increase passive interaction with neighbours
- increase social cohesion and social capital
- increase time to spend with friends/ activities
- age in place. don’t move house
How to design health-enabling environments through people oriented design?
- active transport
- increase time spent on exercising
- increase time spent recreating
- reduce social isolation (improves mental health)
What are examples of ‘soft’ measures?
Dune restoration, wetland enhancement, beach nourishment
What are some examples of adaptation interventions?
Managed realignment
Land zoning
Breakwaters and artificial reefs
Groynes
Planning for urban heat
WSUD
Active urban design
What does managed realignment do?
temporarily realigns shoreline to provide room for beach process and estuarine areas that can pond water further
What is land zoning?
determine permissible uses for different land, including building restrictions
What do breakwaters and artificial reefs do?
reduce wave energy reaching the shore
What do groynes do?
prevent beach erosion
What are the different types of resilience?
- Engineering
- Ecological
- Specific
- General
What is adaptive capacity?
The capacity of a system or community to adjust to and cope with changes or disturbances.
Define salience.
The extent to which a natural hazard stands out in its potential impacts.
What type of maladaptation is the following?
Adding SO2 into the atmosphere means that stopping to do that would increase global temperatures.
Path dependency
What type of maladaptation is the following?
Carbon taxes without suitable regressive measures.
Disproportionately burdening the most vulnerable.
What type of maladaptation is the following?
Construction of a road to add redundancy to the network in the event of a major natural hazard.
Increasing emissions of GHG.
What type of maladaptation is the following?
The levee effect, which causes a false sense of security.
Reduced incentive to adapt.
How can the built environment impact equality and access to opportunities?
The built environment can create barriers or opportunities that affect people’s access to education, jobs and services, thereby influencing equality.
How can the built environment be health-enabling?
- Access to green spaces
- Accessible housing
- Safe and accessible housing
- Mixed-use zoning
- Community engagement
What are some examples of climate-resilient infrastructure?
- Flood barriers and levees to withstand extreme weather events, with appropriate consideration of maladaptive potential.
- Coastal dune restoration to combat erosion
- Implementation of green roofs in urban areas
- Water treatment plants designed for consistent water supply during droughts
