Adaptive Planning - Interventions given Uncertainty Flashcards
How can options not be adequate for all time/conditions?
- Options may fail once some environmental threshold/ trigger is reached
- Avoid path dependence through flexibility
Options should consider adaptiveness by being:
- flexible
- avoiding lock-in and path dependency
- meet objective over at least 100 yr
- able to perform options and pathways over a range of climate change and non climate change scenarios
Adaptive approaches involves …
- short term early actions that are flexible
- be changed ahead of earlier-onset adaptation threshold
- help across uncertainties
Adaptive Pathways asks…
- what are first impacts because of climate change?
- under what conditions and types/combo of hazard will current strategies be ineffective?
- what are alternative options?
- what are different decision pathways that can be taken to achieve some objectives?
- how robust are they?
- are they flexible?
What is DAPP?
Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways
What is a threshold?
Conditions under which policies/ actions would no longer reach objectives of adaptive planning
What is a trigger?
A condition with enough lead time to implement the next stage in the plan.
Decision points with sufficient lead time. You have to make an action so don’t reach threshold!
What is a signal?
Warning of change emerging.
Designing decision points is dependent on …
on extreme events.
Selecting indicators is based on :
- Relevance
- Measurability
- Timeliness
- Reliable
-Convincing
Example of triggers
SLR, coastal flooding, stormwater malfunction, and measure of concern/anxiety
What are adaptive frameworks used for?
- assesses implication of responses before decisions on adaptation are taken
- identifying circumstances which are unacceptable for levels of risk that may be reached
- expressing circumstances as decision points
- can be used if necessary with enough lead time before adaptation threshold is reached
What are some limitations and questions remaining in DAPP?
- implementation has not been achieved in complex situations
- multiple uncertain conditions which makes this approach even more complex
Can uncertainty be eliminated?
No!
Ignoring uncertainty limits _____________ in the future and end up in situations that could’ve been avoided.
limits the ability to take corrective actions
Ignoring uncertainty can result in ____ and ____ and lead to _____ plans
missed choices and opportunities; unsustainable
Under deep uncertainty, you should aim for more ___ plans that can be adapted over time.
robust
Using DAPP as a systemic framework for adaptive planning means:
- choosing short-term action and thresholds beyond which are no longer sufficient
- identifying additional action needed beyond thresholds
Using DAPP approach can help focus on important questions such as:
- low regret actions
prioritising actions
robustness and flexibility of strategies under wide range of futures
What are the 7 steps of DAPP?
1) Describe system, objectives, uncertainties
2) Assess vulnerability/opportunities
3) Identify actions and assess Adaptation Tipping Points (ATP) conditions and timing
4) Develop and evaluate adaptation pathways
5) Design adaptive plan
6) Implement the plan
7) Monitor
Phased approach to pathways raises awareness by:
- serious gaming
- introduction to adaptive planning method
What are the 4 types of portfolio measures?
M0: no action
M1: local flood mitigation
M2: regional flood mitigation
M3: land-use mitigation
What are some solutions to high-end sea level rise?
Protect (open/closed), advance, accomodate
During crisis, under time pressure, crucial decisions are taken that don’t always consider ____ impacts and options.
long-term
_____ and _____ of options are important to consider (lead time, lifetime, flexibility)
timescales; path-dependency
Define robust in terms of deep uncertainty and adaptive planning.
Is suitable across a range of futures.
In what order should the adaptation threshold, signal, and trigger appear?
Signal –> trigger –> threshold
What document recommends DAPP for use in Aotearoa?
MfE Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance for Local Government.
When would you use DAPP?
When planning under deeply uncertain conditions
