Adaptive Planning - Interventions given Uncertainty

Question 1

How can options not be adequate for all time/conditions?

Answer 1

• Options may fail once some environmental threshold/ trigger is reached
• Avoid path dependence through flexibility

Question 2

Options should consider adaptiveness by being:

Answer 2

• flexible
• avoiding lock-in and path dependency
• meet objective over at least 100 yr
• able to perform options and pathways over a range of climate change and non climate change scenarios

Question 3

Adaptive approaches involves …

Answer 3

• short term early actions that are flexible
• be changed ahead of earlier-onset adaptation threshold
• help across uncertainties

Question 4

Adaptive Pathways asks…

Answer 4

• what are first impacts because of climate change?
• under what conditions and types/combo of hazard will current strategies be ineffective?
• what are alternative options?
• what are different decision pathways that can be taken to achieve some objectives?
• how robust are they?
• are they flexible?

Question 5

What is DAPP?

Answer 5

Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways

Question 6

What is a threshold?

Answer 6

Conditions under which policies/ actions would no longer reach objectives of adaptive planning

Question 7

What is a trigger?

Answer 7

A condition with enough lead time to implement the next stage in the plan.

Decision points with sufficient lead time. You have to make an action so don’t reach threshold!

Question 8

What is a signal?

Answer 8

Warning of change emerging.

Question 9

Designing decision points is dependent on …

Answer 9

on extreme events.

Question 10

Selecting indicators is based on :

Answer 10

• Relevance
• Measurability
• Timeliness
• Reliable
  -Convincing

Question 11

Example of triggers

Answer 11

SLR, coastal flooding, stormwater malfunction, and measure of concern/anxiety

Question 12

What are adaptive frameworks used for?

Answer 12

• assesses implication of responses before decisions on adaptation are taken
• identifying circumstances which are unacceptable for levels of risk that may be reached
• expressing circumstances as decision points
• can be used if necessary with enough lead time before adaptation threshold is reached

Question 13

What are some limitations and questions remaining in DAPP?

Answer 13

• implementation has not been achieved in complex situations
• multiple uncertain conditions which makes this approach even more complex

Question 14

Can uncertainty be eliminated?

Answer 14

No!

Question 15

Ignoring uncertainty limits _____________ in the future and end up in situations that could’ve been avoided.

Answer 15

limits the ability to take corrective actions

Question 16

Ignoring uncertainty can result in ____ and ____ and lead to _____ plans

Answer 16

missed choices and opportunities; unsustainable

Question 17

Under deep uncertainty, you should aim for more ___ plans that can be adapted over time.

Answer 17

robust

Question 18

Using DAPP as a systemic framework for adaptive planning means:

Answer 18

• choosing short-term action and thresholds beyond which are no longer sufficient
• identifying additional action needed beyond thresholds

Question 19

Using DAPP approach can help focus on important questions such as:

Answer 19

• low regret actions
  prioritising actions
  robustness and flexibility of strategies under wide range of futures

Question 20

What are the 7 steps of DAPP?

Answer 20

1) Describe system, objectives, uncertainties
2) Assess vulnerability/opportunities
3) Identify actions and assess Adaptation Tipping Points (ATP) conditions and timing
4) Develop and evaluate adaptation pathways
5) Design adaptive plan
6) Implement the plan
7) Monitor

Question 21

Phased approach to pathways raises awareness by:

Answer 21

• serious gaming
• introduction to adaptive planning method

Question 22

What are the 4 types of portfolio measures?

Answer 22

M0: no action
M1: local flood mitigation
M2: regional flood mitigation
M3: land-use mitigation

Question 23

What are some solutions to high-end sea level rise?

Answer 23

Protect (open/closed), advance, accomodate

Question 24

During crisis, under time pressure, crucial decisions are taken that don’t always consider ____ impacts and options.

Answer 24

long-term

Question 25

_____ and _____ of options are important to consider (lead time, lifetime, flexibility)

Answer 25

timescales; path-dependency

Question 26

Define robust in terms of deep uncertainty and adaptive planning.

Answer 26

Is suitable across a range of futures.

Question 27

In what order should the adaptation threshold, signal, and trigger appear?

Answer 27

Signal –> trigger –> threshold

Question 28

What document recommends DAPP for use in Aotearoa?

Answer 28

MfE Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance for Local Government.

Question 29

When would you use DAPP?

Answer 29

When planning under deeply uncertain conditions