Risk Management Flashcards
lecture overview
R I Q M P H S F P
Really irritating queens make Penises Have small foreskin piercings
1) risk -vulnerability and assessement
2) indicators and confidence scales
3) quantifying impact
4) models- fault tree and example
5) protection goals
6) hazard identification
7) strategy comparisons
8) flood example
9) considerations in poilicy
lecture overview letters
R I Q M P H S F P
risk definition and key qu (2)
a probability of damage/danger/loss/injury or other adverse consequence
what? agents,pathways,receptors
Where/When? time space vulnerability
Vulnerability compnenets + who/when
Brooks 2003
a) biophysical vulnerability - propensity for agent to cause harm to receptor
b) social vulnerability -human factors that reduce receptor ability to cope with agent interactors
does vulnerability imply co responsability?
Assessment
vulnerability means need to assign responsability for management
done through assessment
vulnerability to 1 risk
may reduce it for others - ie is enviro risk
also how do we take into account dif risks?
(drunk driving) / genetic medical disease
Assessment questions (8)
what can go wrong? When? Likelihood? Consequences? Options? Tradeoffs? CBA models? Legislation
what can we use for assessment (3)
evidence quality indicators
confidence scales
quantify impact
risk models
evidence quality indicators
quality rank) + indicators (5
can public trust government
look at qual of evidence on scale -
very low,low.moderate.high,very high=quality rank
theoretical basis scientific method auditability calibration objectivity
good evidence
wellestablished theory
best available practice
large sample + direct means
well documented to trace data
bad evidence
crude specification
no rigour
no link back to data
Confidence scales + percentage and based on what
based on IPCC 2005- flossary of terms for climate change reports (how confident of term)
very low 0-5 low 5-33 moderate 33-67 high-67-95 very high 95-100
Quantifying impact different ways (3)
direct market value - get for selling ie polluted water vs clean (difficult to play to ecosystem services)
hedonic pricing- relate to some market values ie if house near busy road less valuable as pollution
contingent valuation- WTP and WTA -willingness to pay/accept - problem = biased questions + subjective
Risk models - composition
1) Hazard identification - formal listing of hazards - risk matrices and top event
2) Assignment of probabilities - each of sequential events have probability- probability of top event is derived from sub events multiplication
3) consequence modelling - ie toxic damage estimated
what do models do?
produce a distribution of different outcomes
Example model
FAULT TREE MODEL
series of events which together add up to make problem for example an invasive insect establishment by importing fruit
Fault tree model breakdown example for citrus fruit invested by pest
initiatiating event ( 60% harvested for export) P1 = 5% infested P2-40 escape port detection P3 5% to infesrable areas P4- 5% exposed to citrus TOP EVENT - introduction of pest
Fault tree standards
Satandards exist for example acceptable quarantine risk is 99.8% safe
each of th probabilities have certain degree of uncertainty so should
have distributions for each number and multiply distributions at mean and median for safe differ. Standard being determined by distribution would be better
