1-2 Demography Flashcards
What does demography concern 3
Size
Location
Composition
What are key rates in demography
Births
Deaths
Migration
Key issues in demography 4/7
Low fertility
High fertility /resource comp
Social fragmentation
Rapid growth
Key issues in demography last 3/7
Migration
High mortality in developing world
Balance of ownership of resources
Low fertility affects
Less children born to older parents Affects inter generational relationships Attitude to debt Attitude to resource use Cause Aging pops
What is social fragmentation
Trend to smaller households
Less stable in composition
More frequent migration both local and international
Developing countries have high mortality due to (5)
Malaria Tub scoliosis AIDS Malnutrition Conflict due to resource scarcity
What does balance of ownership of resources mean
Population as the basis for a vote for resource use and distribution of intellectual property across populations
Last 250 years general
Mortality lower
- Decline in infectious disease
- Better nutrition
Fertility lower
-decline over last century and sharp gal over last gen due to contraception
Migration higher
- Huge increase in international movement since 1800
- Urbanisation and internal movement
Increase in pop from 1800-1900 why? Disease and agriculture specify
Sewers (typhoid)
Milk + housing (tuberculosis)
Inoculation (smallpox)
Agriculture then to tackle malnutrition Crops Enclosures Transport More cultivated land
When was peak growth rate reached in Europe
1820
What is enviro qual related to 3
Numbers and movement of people
Level and consumption type
Willingness to pay for enviro and ability (depends on demographics)
Eu natural r
0.0003
After 1880 what happened in Britain
Birth rates declined
Britain was 1 of first countries to have relatively stable age structure in the new low birth/low death rate stage of population
Why was there did in size between age cohorts?
2 world wars
And baby boom of 50s/60s
Short period of high growth r= 0.018
What happened in 1967-77
Decline of fertility due to pill
Natural r =
Crude r =
Birth rate - death rate
Birth rate - death rate + net migration
When has next highest fertility in U.K. Been since baby boom?
2008 at 1.96
What is fertility rate like in span Italy and Germany
It is 1.4
What has been a result of social change not adapting as quickly as demographic change?
Migration and conflict
In some case death rate has even become worse as technology not sustainable and ineffective malaria control and rise of drug resistant tuberculosis
Fertility projections
Should decrease for both developed and developing by 2100 aiming for replacement
World pop estimate now and 2050
7.4 billion
9.6 billion
UN estimates
Current global fertility rate
2.5 and expected to continue falling
Brazil demographics Pop Birth Fertility Death
Will still grow In2030 to 223 million
But birth and fertilité decreasing
Death rate increasing
Leading to deceleration in population growth
What is demographic transition
Transition from high birth and death to low bury and death rates as country moves from pre industrial to industrial
In demographic transition model what stages are developed / developing countries in
Developed = 3/4 Developing = 2/3
Demographic transition of developing countries?
Rapid decline in death rates
Slower decline in birth rates
2-3 gen of social adaptation
Demographic transition in Britain/developed countries?
Slow decline in death rate
Slow decline in birth rate
5-7 gen social adaptations
Where are populations aging and what does this affect
Europe
N America
Japan
By 2020 how many will voters will be over 50
Half
A third of babies born will leave till when estimated by who?
To 100
The ONs
Wil aging pop be problem for Britain straight away
No
Short term increases in birth
Baby boom
Germany aging pop birth rate
What does this mean for uk
660 000 births in 2012 lowest since records began
Means britain may get economic edge
What effects life expectancy and examples
Socio economics
Kensington 86 for f
Blackpool 79.9 for f
Older mother in uk?
Mean age has increased to 39.2 in 2014
Ageing population effect big where?
Japan
Hong Kong
Dependency ratio equation
Age 15-64 / 65+
Living arrangements
Separation
Marriage AV 11 years
Elderly women left as life expectancy higher than husbands
Affects space
Urbanisation = unmanaged rural areas left behind
Pensions
Time spent retired
U.K. And US high
Mainland Europe low
Despite more time spent in retirement 34% in 2010 but was 20 in 1970
Social fragmentation
Ingle person household
Size decreasing
Number increasing
Urbanisation facts
54% pop urban
95% of pop growth from 95 to 2030 will be in cities
In 2015 34 cities over 10 million
In Britain is there urbanisation?
Actually net migration OUT
90,000 a year
Sw England and Edinburgh
Result of migration for incoming areas
Water Energy Transport Schools Employment Social change Weather/climate
Result of migration for areas being left (outgoing)
Rural depop
Unsustainable economies
Problems for outgoing and incoming areas as result of migration
Political apportionment of representation and spending
U.K. Immigration facts
2015 bet immigration was 336000
636000 in 300 000 our
Migrants age structure Is skewed- mostly 20-35 years
Prediction of growth related to migration
45 % of growth in 2030 due to net immigration children under -6 wil increase
Life expectancy to rise
Enviro consequences of pop size and structure 6
Consumption Distribution of people Innovation Change Age group links Social diversity
Botswana and Zimbabwe life expectancy
Less than 45 years
Pop control options for rising pop 3
Lower birth rate
Delay fertility
Migration
Pop control for declining pops
2
Induce higher birth rates
Immigration
What does delaying fertility do
Increases gen time
Social change women employed
What does lowering fertility do
Longer gen times
Affects age cohort balance
Dependency changed
More effect than delaying
