Risk Management (1) Flashcards
If a company is exporting from, say, the UK to the US, and the US $ weakens from, say, $/£ 1.3 to $/£ 1.4?
Any exports from the UK will be more expensive when priced in $
Goods imported from the US will be cheaper in £
What is the spot exchange rate?
The market exchange rate for buying/selling the currency for immediate delivery
What is the forward exchange rate?
The exchange rate for buying or selling the currency at a specific date in the future
Differences in interest rates => Expected differences in inflation rates
Fisher effect
Differences in interest rates => Difference between spot and forward exchange rate
Expectations theory
Expected difference in inflation rates => Expected change in spot exchange rate
Purchasing power parity
Differences in interest rates => Expected change in spot exchange rate
International fisher effect
What is absolute PPP?
States that the exchange rate simply reflects the different cost of living in two countries
Disadvantage of absolute PPP?
They are of limited practical use in financial management
What is relative PPP?
The future spot exchange rate is based on the current spot rate and the inflation rate differential between the two currencies
What does interest rate parity state?
The forward exchange rate is based on the spot rate and the interest rate differential between the two currencies
What does PPP predict?
The future spot rate
What does IRP predict?
The forward rate
What happens according to the fisher effect?
Countries with a higher rate of inflation have higher nominal interest rates in order to offer the same real return as countries with low inflation
What is the concept of arbitage?
The forces of supply and demand would lead to a change in the forward exchange rate so that risk-free profit making was not possible