Reasoning & Decision Making Flashcards
week 8
what is reasoning?
- The action of thinking about something in a logical (or rational) way to make a decision
○ Use our existing knowledge to draw conclusions, make predictions, or construct explanations
§ Use what we already know to define an outcome, predict what is going to happen or to help us explain why something has happened.
what are the 2 types of logical reasoning?
- inductive
- deductive
what is inductive reasoning?
- Making broad generalisations from specific observations
- Observe something then make the generalisation
- E.G: Something happens that makes us question the generalisation based on something around us.
- Behaviour has to be reinforced to learn something from it
○ Essential for learning - Just because one thing has been done before, doesn’t mean that the same outcome will occur again.
what is deductive reasoning?
Reaching a specific, logical conclusion from general statements or hypotheses
what is the structure of deductive reasoning?
- First premise (or statement) - “P1”
- Second premise - “P2”
- Inference (or conclusion)
how is deductive reasoning related to problem solving?
○ Goal is to solve the reasoning task, but the solution isn’t always obvious!
what are the two types of decuctive reasoning?
- conditional
- syllogistic
what is conditional reasoning?
(reasoning with if)
○ Conditions behind the reasoning (if… then)
○ Logical operators included in premises
○ e.g., or, and, if … then, if and only if
conclusions can be valid or invalid
what are the 4 types of conditional reasoning problems?
- Modus ponens
- Modus tollens
- Affirmation of the consequent
- Denial of the antecedent
what is modus ponens?
AFFIRMATIVE (everything is true)
if A is true,
then B is true,
A is ture
therefore, B is true
conclusions are valid
what is modus tollens?
NEGATIVE (everything is not true)
if A is true,
then B is true,
B is not true
therefore, A is not true
conclusions are valid
what is affirmation of the consequent?
AFFIRMATIVE
if A is ture,
then B is true
B is true
therefore A is ture
conclusions are invalid
what is denial of the antecedent?
NEGATIVE
if A is true
then B is true
A is not ture
therefore B is not true
conclusions are invalid
how is deductive reasoning equal to unintrested reasoning?
- Examples of deductive reasoning do not account for:
○ The goals/preferences of an individual
○ An individual’s prior knowledge or expectations- Contrasts with how we reason in everyday life
○ Also known as informal reasoning
- Contrasts with how we reason in everyday life
what is the importance of prior knowledge?
markowitz et al (2013)
PROBLEM (1)
If a rock is thrown at a window, then it will break
A window is broken.
Therefore, a rock was thrown at the window
PROBLEM (2)
If a finger is cut, then it will bleed
A finger is bleeding Therefore, the finger was cut
- Both conclusions are invalid (affirmation of the consequent)
○ But, more likely to accept conclusion to PROBLEM 2 as valid
§ Couldn’t come up with other reasons as to why a finger was bleeding but could with how the window was broken.
what is statistical strategy when referring to the importance of prior knowledge?
Estimate the probability that a conclusion is valid based on what we know about the world
Limited time to accept/reject conclusion
Less cognitively demanding
what is couterexample starategy when referring to the importance of prior knowledge?
Try to think of counterexamples that contradict the conclusion
unlimited time to accept/reject conclusion
○ More cognitively demanding
what is syllogistic reasoning?
○ Consists of two premises followed by a conclusion that is either valid or invalid
○ Contains three items, with one occurring in both premises
○ Premises and conclusions contain quantifiers e.g., all, some, no, some … not
what does the valiudity of the conclusion in systollic reasoning depend on?
- Validity of conclusion depends only on whether it follows logically
○ Validity in real-world is irrelevant
○ Real world context might be different to the problem
what are belief biases in systological reasoning?
causes errors in syllogistic reasoning
○ Accept invalid conclusions if they are believable - more likely to accept
○ Reject valid conclusions if they are unbelievable-
Own experiences influence decisions- respond to conclusion in a certain way
what are the two influential theories of logic-based reasoning?
- mental model
- dual-systems
what is the mental model (logic-based reasoning)?
Create a visual image of the problem, using premises and conclusions
what are dual-systems (logic-based reasoning)?
○ Unconscious (get to simplest conclusion as quickly as possible), heuristic-based process
○ Conscious (use conscious thinking to get to conclusion analytically), analytical process
what are the assumptions of the mental model?
- Mental model constructed and conclusions generated
- Construct alternative models to falsify conclusion
○ i.e., counterexamples
§ Might come up with counterexamples rather than going straight to the conclusion. - Reasoning problems that require several mental models are harder to solve
○ Due to increased demands on working memory
- Construct alternative models to falsify conclusion
what are the limitations of the mental model?
doesn’t describe how we decide which information to include in a mental model
may niot be accurate as they dont always provide us wth a definitive answer due to ambiguous premises.
what is the heuristic-analytic theory (evans, 2006) as part of the dual-systems theory?
when presented with a problem:
* use task features, goals, knowledge= single posibility/mental nodel
* told to use/justify reasoning, time= analytical syste intervention?
* conclusion
* if either of the above features dont lead to a conclusion that satisfies the theory, you must go back to the mental model and start again.
what are the 3 assumptions of the mental model?
- Singularity
○ One single mental model considered at a time
○ Don’t present with all mental models in one go.
§ Assess if the mental model fits and if not have to go back and change it to fit. - Relevance
○ Most relevant (or plausible) mental model considered based on prior knowledge
○ Based on what you already know about the problem. - Satisficing
○ Mental model evaluated by analytic system and accepted if adequate
○ Based on how simply you can draw the conclusion then you assess it analytically to see if it fits the mental model.
what are the limitations of the dual systems theory?
- No direct evidence that there are separate heuristic and analytical processes
○ Does not explain how heuristic and analytical processes interact
○ How we engage with both potentially at the same time.- Assumes that all analytical processing is conscious
○ But can sometimes be unconscious
§ May analyse things without consciously realising we are.
- Assumes that all analytical processing is conscious
what is informal reasoning?
- Refers to the process of everyday reasoning
○ Contrasts with the artificial, logic reasoning tasks- not how we think in real life.- “A new paradigm of the psychology of reasoning” (evans, 2012)
what is informal reasoning based on?
knowledge and experience that we have gathered through our lives.
has little to dow ith formal logic as everyones experiences are different.
what are the 4 key factors that are important in informal reasoning?
- Content = plausibility- personally
- Context = expert vs. non-expert- who is the context being provided by.
§ What is your level of expertise in which the problem is given to you - Probabilities = possibly/probably true- how probable is the conclusion a valid one
- Motivation = support our viewpoint- what is the motivation behind the conclusion
§ Does it support our viewpoint
what is the neuroscience illusion (content)?
- Students provided mixture of “good” and “bad” explanations for psychological phenomena
○ Rate how satisfied they were with each explanation - Some explanations accompanied by neuroscientific findings
Weisberg et al (2008) - Good= rated same even with support from neuroscience
- Bad= if given with neuroscientific findings then it is rated better
- Neuroscientific findings considered more “scientific”
○ More complex/expensive equipment
Assume that information about brain activity provides direct access to information about psychological processes - more plausible
- Neuroscientific findings considered more “scientific”
what is the take home message from Weisberg et al (2008)’s neuroscience illusion?
Need to evaluate neuroscientific evidence just as carefully as psychological evidence
what are the 3 factors that influence the percieved strangth of a conclusion according to Hahn & Oaksford (2007)?
- Degree of previous conviction or belief
* If something happened before it could be possible that it happens again - Positive arguments have more impact than negative arguments
· Positive arguments are more probable - Strength of the evidence
How much evidence depends on how strong the valid or invalid conclusion is
what is the definition of motivation?
- Our judgements can be distorted by our personal goals/beliefs
Motivated by our wishes, not facts (a lot of the time)
what is myside bias?
○ Tendency to evaluate statements with respect to our belief’s rather than on merit
Our belief overrides factual evidence (supersedes it)
how did Howe & Leiserowitz (2007) use climate change to show motivation?
- Tested American’s memories of:
○ Previous summer (been unusually warm)
○ Previous winter (been unusually cold)- Those most dismissive of global warming
Least likely to remember preceding summer had been warmer than usual
- Those most dismissive of global warming
what is rationality?
○ Rational thought governed by logic = we are not rational
○ Rational thought involves use of probabilities rather than logic = we are rational given world is uncertain
○ Work with probabilities- how likely something is to happen (world is unpredictable)
is deductive reasoning rationale?
- Human reasoning is inadequate when tested in the laboratory
- Don’t know the full extent of how much they engage in deductive reasoning.
- However, seem to cope with problems in everyday life
