Reasoning & Decision Making Flashcards

week 8

1
Q

what is reasoning?

A
  • The action of thinking about something in a logical (or rational) way to make a decision
    ○ Use our existing knowledge to draw conclusions, make predictions, or construct explanations
    § Use what we already know to define an outcome, predict what is going to happen or to help us explain why something has happened.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
2
Q

what are the 2 types of logical reasoning?

A
  1. inductive
  2. deductive
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
3
Q

what is inductive reasoning?

A
  • Making broad generalisations from specific observations
    • Observe something then make the generalisation
    • E.G: Something happens that makes us question the generalisation based on something around us.
    • Behaviour has to be reinforced to learn something from it
      ○ Essential for learning
    • Just because one thing has been done before, doesn’t mean that the same outcome will occur again.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
4
Q

what is deductive reasoning?

A

Reaching a specific, logical conclusion from general statements or hypotheses

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
5
Q

what is the structure of deductive reasoning?

A
  1. First premise (or statement) - “P1”
  2. Second premise - “P2”
  3. Inference (or conclusion)
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
6
Q

how is deductive reasoning related to problem solving?

A

○ Goal is to solve the reasoning task, but the solution isn’t always obvious!

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
7
Q

what are the two types of decuctive reasoning?

A
  1. conditional
  2. syllogistic
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
8
Q

what is conditional reasoning?

A

(reasoning with if)
○ Conditions behind the reasoning (if… then)
○ Logical operators included in premises
○ e.g., or, and, if … then, if and only if

conclusions can be valid or invalid

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
9
Q

what are the 4 types of conditional reasoning problems?

A
  1. Modus ponens
  2. Modus tollens
  3. Affirmation of the consequent
  4. Denial of the antecedent
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
10
Q

what is modus ponens?

A

AFFIRMATIVE (everything is true)

if A is true,
then B is true,
A is ture
therefore, B is true

conclusions are valid

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
11
Q

what is modus tollens?

A

NEGATIVE (everything is not true)

if A is true,
then B is true,
B is not true
therefore, A is not true

conclusions are valid

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
12
Q

what is affirmation of the consequent?

A

AFFIRMATIVE

if A is ture,
then B is true
B is true
therefore A is ture

conclusions are invalid

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
13
Q

what is denial of the antecedent?

A

NEGATIVE

if A is true
then B is true
A is not ture
therefore B is not true

conclusions are invalid

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
14
Q

how is deductive reasoning equal to unintrested reasoning?

A
  • Examples of deductive reasoning do not account for:
    ○ The goals/preferences of an individual
    ○ An individual’s prior knowledge or expectations
    • Contrasts with how we reason in everyday life
      ○ Also known as informal reasoning
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
15
Q

what is the importance of prior knowledge?
markowitz et al (2013)

A

PROBLEM (1)
If a rock is thrown at a window, then it will break
A window is broken.
Therefore, a rock was thrown at the window

PROBLEM (2)
If a finger is cut, then it will bleed
A finger is bleeding Therefore, the finger was cut

  • Both conclusions are invalid (affirmation of the consequent)
    ○ But, more likely to accept conclusion to PROBLEM 2 as valid
    § Couldn’t come up with other reasons as to why a finger was bleeding but could with how the window was broken.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
16
Q

what is statistical strategy when referring to the importance of prior knowledge?

A

Estimate the probability that a conclusion is valid based on what we know about the world
Limited time to accept/reject conclusion
Less cognitively demanding

17
Q

what is couterexample starategy when referring to the importance of prior knowledge?

A

Try to think of counterexamples that contradict the conclusion
unlimited time to accept/reject conclusion
○ More cognitively demanding

18
Q

what is syllogistic reasoning?

A

○ Consists of two premises followed by a conclusion that is either valid or invalid
○ Contains three items, with one occurring in both premises
○ Premises and conclusions contain quantifiers e.g., all, some, no, some … not

19
Q

what does the valiudity of the conclusion in systollic reasoning depend on?

A
  • Validity of conclusion depends only on whether it follows logically
    ○ Validity in real-world is irrelevant
    ○ Real world context might be different to the problem
20
Q

what are belief biases in systological reasoning?

A

causes errors in syllogistic reasoning
○ Accept invalid conclusions if they are believable - more likely to accept
○ Reject valid conclusions if they are unbelievable-
Own experiences influence decisions- respond to conclusion in a certain way

21
Q

what are the two influential theories of logic-based reasoning?

A
  1. mental model
  2. dual-systems
22
Q

what is the mental model (logic-based reasoning)?

A

Create a visual image of the problem, using premises and conclusions

23
Q

what are dual-systems (logic-based reasoning)?

A

○ Unconscious (get to simplest conclusion as quickly as possible), heuristic-based process
○ Conscious (use conscious thinking to get to conclusion analytically), analytical process

24
Q

what are the assumptions of the mental model?

A
  • Mental model constructed and conclusions generated
    • Construct alternative models to falsify conclusion
      ○ i.e., counterexamples
      § Might come up with counterexamples rather than going straight to the conclusion.
    • Reasoning problems that require several mental models are harder to solve
      ○ Due to increased demands on working memory
25
Q

what are the limitations of the mental model?

A

doesn’t describe how we decide which information to include in a mental model
may niot be accurate as they dont always provide us wth a definitive answer due to ambiguous premises.

26
Q

what is the heuristic-analytic theory (evans, 2006) as part of the dual-systems theory?

A

when presented with a problem:
* use task features, goals, knowledge= single posibility/mental nodel
* told to use/justify reasoning, time= analytical syste intervention?
* conclusion
* if either of the above features dont lead to a conclusion that satisfies the theory, you must go back to the mental model and start again.

27
Q

what are the 3 assumptions of the mental model?

A
  1. Singularity
    ○ One single mental model considered at a time
    ○ Don’t present with all mental models in one go.
    § Assess if the mental model fits and if not have to go back and change it to fit.
  2. Relevance
    ○ Most relevant (or plausible) mental model considered based on prior knowledge
    ○ Based on what you already know about the problem.
  3. Satisficing
    ○ Mental model evaluated by analytic system and accepted if adequate
    ○ Based on how simply you can draw the conclusion then you assess it analytically to see if it fits the mental model.
28
Q

what are the limitations of the dual systems theory?

A
  • No direct evidence that there are separate heuristic and analytical processes
    ○ Does not explain how heuristic and analytical processes interact
    ○ How we engage with both potentially at the same time.
    • Assumes that all analytical processing is conscious
      ○ But can sometimes be unconscious
      § May analyse things without consciously realising we are.
29
Q

what is informal reasoning?

A
  • Refers to the process of everyday reasoning
    ○ Contrasts with the artificial, logic reasoning tasks- not how we think in real life.
    • “A new paradigm of the psychology of reasoning” (evans, 2012)
30
Q

what is informal reasoning based on?

A

knowledge and experience that we have gathered through our lives.
has little to dow ith formal logic as everyones experiences are different.

31
Q

what are the 4 key factors that are important in informal reasoning?

A
  1. Content = plausibility- personally
  2. Context = expert vs. non-expert- who is the context being provided by.
    § What is your level of expertise in which the problem is given to you
  3. Probabilities = possibly/probably true- how probable is the conclusion a valid one
  4. Motivation = support our viewpoint- what is the motivation behind the conclusion
    § Does it support our viewpoint
32
Q

what is the neuroscience illusion (content)?

A
  • Students provided mixture of “good” and “bad” explanations for psychological phenomena
    ○ Rate how satisfied they were with each explanation
  • Some explanations accompanied by neuroscientific findings
    Weisberg et al (2008)
  • Good= rated same even with support from neuroscience
  • Bad= if given with neuroscientific findings then it is rated better
    • Neuroscientific findings considered more “scientific”
      ○ More complex/expensive equipment
      Assume that information about brain activity provides direct access to information about psychological processes - more plausible
33
Q

what is the take home message from Weisberg et al (2008)’s neuroscience illusion?

A

Need to evaluate neuroscientific evidence just as carefully as psychological evidence

34
Q

what are the 3 factors that influence the percieved strangth of a conclusion according to Hahn & Oaksford (2007)?

A
  1. Degree of previous conviction or belief
    * If something happened before it could be possible that it happens again
  2. Positive arguments have more impact than negative arguments
    · Positive arguments are more probable
  3. Strength of the evidence
    How much evidence depends on how strong the valid or invalid conclusion is
35
Q

what is the definition of motivation?

A
  • Our judgements can be distorted by our personal goals/beliefs
    Motivated by our wishes, not facts (a lot of the time)
36
Q

what is myside bias?

A

○ Tendency to evaluate statements with respect to our belief’s rather than on merit
Our belief overrides factual evidence (supersedes it)

37
Q

how did Howe & Leiserowitz (2007) use climate change to show motivation?

A
  • Tested American’s memories of:
    ○ Previous summer (been unusually warm)
    ○ Previous winter (been unusually cold)
    • Those most dismissive of global warming
      Least likely to remember preceding summer had been warmer than usual
38
Q

what is rationality?

A

○ Rational thought governed by logic = we are not rational
○ Rational thought involves use of probabilities rather than logic = we are rational given world is uncertain
○ Work with probabilities- how likely something is to happen (world is unpredictable)

39
Q

is deductive reasoning rationale?

A
  • Human reasoning is inadequate when tested in the laboratory
  • Don’t know the full extent of how much they engage in deductive reasoning.
  • However, seem to cope with problems in everyday life