reasoning Flashcards
inductive reasoning
- drawing general conclusions from the premises referring to particular instances
not always true
deductive reasoning
conclusions are certainly valid
based on formal logic
conclusion is always reached
confirmation
- Accumulation of evidence in line with your hypothesis
- Try to find evidence which fits in with your hypothesis
- But not a very successful way as cannot discover things that don’t fit in
falsification
attempt to find contradicting evidence
challenge hypothesis
Watson 2-4-8
3 numbers in ascending order
28% did not discover the rule
as they use confirmation bias
and its a very specific and narrow hypothesis
Cowley & Byrne, 2005
2-4-8
when hypothesis is your own you are less likely to abandon it
only 25% abandon own hypothesis
Tweney et al 1980
2-4-8
- when dont need to use falsification = improved performance
when 2 categories to divide things into
so everything fits into one
gale and ball 2012
2-4-8
If information counterexamples are given, performance increases
DAX example: 2-4-6 / MED example: 6-4-2 (success: 75%) OR 4-4-4 (success: 23%)
Drawing attention to the relevant aspect of the task increases success rate
Cherubini et al 2005
2-4-8
tend to tailor hypothesis to the given example
when these differ = 70% work it out
Russo & Melyo 2008
2-4-8
reducing feedback helps to promote hypothesis generation
Klahr & Simon 2011
scientific hypothesis
use weak methods
trial and error
rule of thumb
means-end analysis
dunbar 1993
scientific evidence
computer based genetic lab
People showed confirmation bias; only 20% looked at inconsistent findings after failing to confirm original hypothesis
Fuselsang et al 2004
scientific evidence
1 – don’t abandon hypothesis when data inconsistent
2 – instead change method and re-run experiment
3 – finally if inconsistent data persists after many experiments then change the hypothesis
modus ponens
p then q
so if P then Q
valid
modus tollens
p then q
so not Q = not P
