decision making Flashcards
key aspects of decisions
choices
outcomes
beliefs
values
expected value theory
we chose based on the highest expected value
so want gamble with highest outcome
St Petersburg paradox
coin - heads win and doubled each time
so infinite £
but people not willing to play
Bernoulli’s curve
we do not base decisions on objective value, but instead on utility
so make the decision based on what makes us happy not what gives most money
expected utility value
you dont know outcome but have beliefs on how likely
so have expected outcome
maximize the expected utility
so happiness over money
neural currency
- A set of brain area which evaluates the value of different items all on common scale?
- This is often called utility (or subjective value)
loss aversion
the loss of an amount is felt much more than the gain of the same amount
endowment effect
value of an item depends if you own it
something you own has higher value
so interpretation that losing it is worse than gaining it
framing effect
the way a gamble is framed can alter how you decide
negatively such as deaths over survivors means less likely to choose
prospect theory
describes how we actually decide on something
the utility (joy/pain) is related to loss or gain.
-You could be rich and lose a small amount and still feel very bad
-Explains loss aversion
and framing effect
absolute (prospect theory)
- Before, unity was defined in absolute terms
- My bank has a certain amount of money in it and my happiness is directly based on this number
relative (prospect theory)
-My happiness is based on changes in my bank, doesn’t matter if I have a lot of money or not, if number goes up, I’m happy and if it goes down, I am unhappy
probability bias
People act as if – low probability events are more common than they are, and high probability are less common than they are
criticism of prospect theory
only describes and does not give psychological explanations
decision in time
decision between immediate grain or delayed gratification
use internal subjective value of the reward