Property Flashcards
Listed investment trust exposure
to property market.
Listed investment trust is
publicly traded companies but they are focusing on the property market. They are only involved in the business of property management.
some are involved in the business of fund management.
impact of shock on
Unlisted Property Fund
short term
short term return is higher and lower std and zero correlation with listed REIT appears to improve risk return trade off and provide diversification benefits
subject to the same economic shock but in short term not reflected in returns.
impact of shock on
Unlisted Property Fund
do not report unit price everyday. does not reflect negative industry shock at all
Does not change at all. only change at the end of the year when portfolio manager decides to review the portfolio and decides to generate updated value report and unit price. negative impact of shock will be incorporated at the end of the year
impact of shock on
iliquid REIT
not actively traded. Trading to facilitate price discovery to incorporate new info into unit price. takes 2 months to incorporate negative industry shock into unit price
partially incorporated. unlisted property fund > lower std and higher return > liquid REIT
impact of shock on
Liquid REIT
shock is immediately incorporated in the unit or share price. there will be a drop in the value of the property.
impact on shock and horizon
illiquid assets and unlisted property fund.
due to the time lag of incorporating the shock into the unit price of the illiquid asset or unlisted asset, when looking at average return of these assets, cannot use short term data interval.
short term return does not reflect true underlying value changes
message from the shocks on assets
underlying asset values are exactly the same for each fund over time
but thin trading and appraisal valuations tend to bias downards standard deviations and correlations by showing smoother returns because there is a time lag for adjustments to show
std and correlation likey to underestimate value of iliquid assets or unlisted asset
what determines the value of australian houses
supply and demand
labour policy
policy to change negative gearing, that may shape residential property market in AU
Given the client’s objectives and constraints, advise possible assets swaps of direct property (family home and investmnet properties) with other assets that may potentially improve the risk-return trade-off of the total portfolio. Explain why.
WE Hedged
illiquidity risk and fundamental risk (AU economy)
What is the nature of the economic exposures that arise from Australian DP? (That is, to what extent does DP contain exposure to interest rates, inflation and economic growth?)
• The simple correlations suggest
t higher bond yields may be good for DP returns. However, when all 4 economic variables are included in multiple regressions, the sign on ∆BY reverses to negative (t-stat insignificant for quarterly, yearly and 3 year regressions, significant for 5 year regressions). Meanwhile all 3 other variables remain positive and significant.
This suggests that bond yields were acting as a proxy for economic growth and/or inflation under the simple correlations; and that the marginal effect of an increase in bond yields on property returns is lower (as might be expected.)
What is the nature of the economic exposures that arise from Australian DP? (That is, to what extent does DP contain exposure to interest rates, inflation and economic growth?)
Simple (univariate) correlations reveal that DP is positively related to CPI, inflation surprise, GDP and change in bond yields (although latter only occurs up to 3-years, not over 5-years).
This suggests that DP may be exposed to economic risk, but might hedge against inflation risk
What are the key similarities and differences in the economic exposures as compared to LP and AE? (That is, to what extent might DP offer genuine diversification benefits as a ‘growth’ asset, due to differing exposures to fundamental economic factors?
AE and LP have a negative correlation
AE and LP have a negative correlation with ∆BY, at least up to 3-years. However, given the multiple regression results quoted above, not much store should be placed on the differing simple correlations for this variable.
In multiple regressions, the effect of ∆BY on AE is only highly significant for 3-year measurement intervals
What are the key similarities and differences in the economic exposures as compared to LP and AE? (That is, to what extent might DP offer genuine diversification benefits as a ‘growth’ asset, due to differing exposures to fundamental economic factors?
- DP, LP and AE all appear to be positively correlated with the Australian economy to a roughly similar extent (based on simple correlations).
- DP has the highest correlation with inflation, particularly inflation surprise, of the three assets.
Does either Australian DP or LP provide a reliable hedge against Australian inflation? (Note: Hedging unexpected inflation might be considered more important, to the extent that expected inflation should already be discounted in asset prices.)
Is direct property a reliable inflation hedge?
- DP property appears to provide an inflation hedge. Evidence includes both simple correlations with CPI and inflation surprise, as well as the multiple regression analysis referred to above.
- Note: Evidence of cointegration between DP and the CPI index (according to other research not shown to class). That is, DP and prices seem to be related in ‘level’ terms
Does either Australian DP or LP provide a reliable hedge against Australian inflation? (Note: Hedging unexpected inflation might be considered more important, to the extent that expected inflation should already be discounted in asset prices.)
• Relation between inflation and both LP and AE
is mixed and generally less clear, as results vary with analysis (simple correlations vs regressions; time interval).
To what extent can DP and LP be viewed as substitute assets?
Analysis of data suggested that DP and LP are substitutes to some extent, but by no means total substitutes.
The differences noted include
- Correlation remains less than 1, i.e. the relation is partial, even over long term.
- Correlations of DP and LP with equities, bond yields and inflation differ sufficiently to suggest that there may be different fundamental economic exposures.
- Timing of returns differs
– DP appears to lag LP
Also: • Investment horizon is a key consideration in the extent to which they are substitutes. Standard deviation and correlations tend to converge as holding period lengthens
Other considerations for judging whether DP and LP are substitutes include:
for
- Similar underlying asset, i.e. property
- Common fundamental risk exposure to economy
Other considerations for judging whether DP and LP are substitutes include:
Against
give 3 more
- Underlying asset exposures are not exactly the same, as differences can exist in property sector mix, impact of non-property operations and leverage. LP has more bias to retail, contains other operations, and tends to be more geared.
- Differing exposure to inflation. DP seems to provide an inflation hedge.
- Different sources of excess return. LP relies on security selection; while DP offers possibility of capturing economic value-add through improvements made to the asset
Other considerations for judging whether DP and LP are substitutes include:
Against
give 3
- LP is relatively liquid, DP is illiquid.
- Different valuation processes and supply/demand balances between DP and LP can lead to different short-term return patterns (and hence short-term diversification effects)
- LP is easier and less costly to access than DP
What advantages might be gained by an institutional investor, such as a DC pension fund, from holding substantial over-weighting in last unlisted asset exposure relative to their peer group?
Disadvantages, Risks, Challenges
cost
(vi) More costly, with higher transaction costs and management fees
What advantages might be gained by an institutional investor, such as a DC pension fund, from holding substantial over-weighting in last unlisted asset exposure relative to their peer group?
Disadvantages, Risks, Challenges
scale?
(v) Larger scale is often required to access some alternative assets effectively, i.e. to either support management of the investment, or to get access to desired managers or assets
What advantages might be gained by an institutional investor, such as a DC pension fund, from holding substantial over-weighting in last unlisted asset exposure relative to their peer group?
Disadvantages, Risks, Challenges
governance
v) Governance-related issues. Monitoring harder due to less transparency; pricing under appraisal valuations; equity issues can arise for investors entering and leaving the fund at ‘stale’ unit prices
What advantages might be gained by an institutional investor, such as a DC pension fund, from holding substantial over-weighting in last unlisted asset exposure relative to their peer group?
Disadvantages, Risks, Challenges
Portfolio management and why
portfolio management becomes trickier, e.g. selecting managers; managing cash flow; rebalancing to target asset weightings; hedging is more difficult or not possible. Some flexibility is lost
What advantages might be gained by an institutional investor, such as a DC pension fund, from holding substantial over-weighting in last unlisted asset exposure relative to their peer group?
Disadvantages, Risks, Challenges
give 2
(i) Increased peer risk
(ii) Greater illiquidity (for majority of alternative asset classes)
What advantages might be gained by an institutional investor, such as a DC pension fund, from holding substantial over-weighting in last unlisted asset exposure relative to their peer group?
smoothed returns
Smoothed returns give appearance of lower volatility (although mainly optics, and not real)
What advantages might be gained by an institutional investor, such as a DC pension fund, from holding substantial over-weighting in alternative assets relative to their peer group?
potential access to
Potential access to additional sources of returns, e.g. manager skill applied in less efficient markets; economic value-add; possibly an illiquidity premium; exotic betas (i.e. when asset class is transitorily mis-priced for very attractive returns)
What advantages might be gained by an institutional investor, such as a DC pension fund, from holding substantial over-weighting in alternative assets relative to their peer group?
most significant is
diversification benefits
hedge fund strategies or styles.
Credit long/short
What (if any) are the main market risk exposures?
- Credit spread (probably)
- Illiquidity
- Poor position taking (selection or timing)
hedge fund strategies or styles.
Convertible arbitrage
What (if any) are the main market risk exposures?
Basis risk (imperfect match of assets)
Illiquidity
hedge fund strategies or styles.
Merger arbitrage
What (if any) are the main market risk exposures?
Mergers fail to proceed (market falls, regulatory, etc)
hedge fund strategies or styles.
Distressed securities
What (if any) are the main market risk exposures?
• Economy and markets •
Poor selection
• Illiquidity
hedge fund strategies or styles.
(v) Quant marketneutral equity
What (if any) are the main market risk exposures?
• Poor selection (i.e. observed anomalies do not recur) • Correlated bets across like investors
hedge fund strategies or styles.
Global macro
What (if any) are the main market risk exposures?
• Manager gets their market calls wrong
hedge fund strategies or styles.
Global macro
(a) Source of alpha generation
- Market forecasting
- Exploit inter-market pricing inconsistencies, e.g. long cheap markets, short expensive market
hedge fund strategies or styles.
Quant marketneutral equity
(a) Source of alpha generation
Security selection (mainly via exploiting ‘anomalies’ like EPS revision, price momentum, value, etc)
hedge fund strategies or styles.
Distressed securities
(a) Source of alpha generation
- Capture risk premiums (liquidity, bankruptcy)
- Risk transfer and liquidity services (earn return for allowing investors to sell out of unwanted holdings
- Security selection
hedge fund strategies or styles.
(iii) Merger arbitrage
(a) Source of alpha generation
- Risk transfer and liquidity services (earn return for allowing investors to sell out of target company)
- Using voting rights to influence bidder to pay higher price?
hedge fund strategies or styles.
(ii) Convertible arbitrage
(a) Source of alpha generation
Arbitrage across partly disconnected markets • Some security selection
hedge fund strategies or styles.
Credit long/short
(a) Source of alpha generation
- Security selection
- Market timing
- Access credit and illiquidity risk premiums? (albeit more beta than alpha)
what limit should be placed on illiquid assets
maximum weighting of 10%, or 20% at the very most
Problem with diversifying to alternative assets
the assets are illiquid
Problems with illiquidity
true asset value
True asset value is often unknown. The value of an asset is crystallised only when a trade occurs. In unlisted assets, trades occur irregularly.
In the interim, the value of unlisted assets can only be estimated, typically using ‘appraisal’ methods. The realisable value for a particular asset may diverge significantly from the estimated value, especially after the cost of transacting
Problems with illiquidity
failure to transact
transacting may even become infeasible because no market exists
Problems with illiquidity
transaction cost
- cost of arranging transactions, e.g. brokerage, professional fees, information, documentation and search costs, and so on.
- price concession offered to secure a trade, also known as ‘market impact’ cost. Of the two elements, market impact is the most relevant. It can vary with market conditions, and may result in a (bad) ‘haircut’ if an unplanned sale occurs during a time of market stress.