Probabilistic Reasoning Flashcards
What are subjective probabilities?
They are probabilites that we assign in our reasoning.
Probability of an event is 0 (impossible) or 1 (necessary)
What is the probability formula?
X Possibilites over Total possibilities.
Explain Bayes’ Theorem?
H is hypothesis E is your evidence Pr is the probability assigned to a possibility.
What is Bayes Suboptimality?
When using our uncertainty our guesses and estimates don’t align with Bayes Theorem tells us what is should be. People are using heuristics and not probabilities.
What is Bayes Optimality
Bayesian Optimality means people make decisions that suggest or are consistent with Bayes’ theorem recommends.
Humans and animals are near optimal in this sense.
What are the failures that result from Availability in Bayesian Subooptimality?
Influence of familiarity. Hearing famous mens names.
Influence of Salience Probability of something happening is highly likely after you’ve just heard or read about something.
Influence of recency
Influence of ease of search. Like the search for words that start with R and not the third word of R.
Bias of imaginability (ten names to form groups of two names out of ten easier than to do with 8 names.
Illusory correlation Some predictors that have a close thematic collection. We look for people with suspicious eyes when trying to judge people who are paranoid.
What are the failures of representativeness in Bayesian Supoptimality?
Base Rate Neglect If we ask someone to name someone who is either a lawyer or engineer . Is it 50.50
Insensitivity to sample size. Larger hospitals vs smaller hospitals births vary population
Misconception of chance If things go in a certain direction they’ll continue (like you’re on a gambling hot streak.
Insensitivity to predictability People are confident in their short term and will think it works in the long term.
Misconceptions of Progressions The military study of doing good don’t praise people do worse
What is Metacognition?
Assignment of probability to your own decision. You go back and evaluate your own actions and decisions.
