Population projections Flashcards
Why are local scale population projections difficult?
- hard to assess due to impacts of exogenous and endogenous factors
- cultural change is slow
- govt. policy
Why are global scale population projections difficult?
- multiple scenarios
- uses current base populations from countries (difficult to obtain/subjective)
What are the 3 population projection variants made by the UN?
Low, Medium and High
Which of the 3 variants is most likely?
Medium
What is the difference between the medium variant and the high/low variants?
high: +0.5 global FR
low: -0.5 global FR
What is the constant fertility scenario?
projections for world populations if FR were to remain constant
What type of govt is Japan with regards to FRs?
pro-natalist
What type of govt was China with regards to FRs?
anti-natalist
What is an exogenous factor that can impact populations and make them difficult to predict?
migration
How might climate change impact fertility rates?
- poorer health so fewer children
- change of opinions (in more educated countries)
How might climate change impact life expectancy?
reduced due to impacts on health and agriculture
What does the UN predict that Africa’s population is in 2022 and 2100?
2022: 1.41 billion
2100: 3.92 billion
What does the UN predict that Asia’s population is in 2022 and in 2100?
2022: 4.71 billion
2100: 4.68 billion
Why might the UN’s predictions be bad?
- at regional scale, predictions have been incorrect (eg underestimate in Europe) but have balanced out globally
- inaccurate base data
- long term projections are inaccurate
Why might the UN’s predictions be considered as good?
- many are between 1-2% of values all are within 5%
- valuable as they allow governments to prepare resources and funding
