Population and the environment - population change Flashcards
range of factors in natural population change, models of natural population change and their application in contrasting physical and human settings, concept of demographic dividend, international migration key terms, environmental and socio economic causes and processes that relate to international migration, demographic environment social economic health political implication of migration
what is crude birth rate
the total number of live births per 1,000 of a population per year
what is crude death rate
the total number of deaths per 1,000 of a population per year
what is demographic
the study of a human population
what is an emigrant
a person leaving their native area or country in order to settle elsewhere
what is an immigrant
a person moving into an area or country in which they are no native in order to settle there
what is infant mortality rate
the number of children who die before their first birthday per 1,000 live births per year
what is life expectancy
the average number of years a person born in a particular year in a location is expected to live
what is replacement rate
the number of children each women needs to have to maintain the current population
what is reproductive age
the age at which women can give birth, normally considered to be between 15 and 44
what is the total fertility rate
the average number of children born per women in an area or county if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years
what are the main components of population change
inputs - births, immgrants
total population - natural change, net migration
outputs - deaths, emmigrants
when would there be a natural increase of a population
birth rate exceeds death rates
when would there be a natural decrease of a population
death rates exceed birth rates
when would there be a positive net migration
more immigrants than emigrants
when would there be a negative net migration
more emigrants than immigrants
what is the correlation between birth and fertility rates
both measures of reproductive potential within a population
different forms of measurement - birth rate based on whole population, fertility rate more accurate measure of future population change as it is the average num of children that each women of reproductive childbearing age will give birth to
What are vital rates
key terms needed to discuss population change: birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate, total fertility rate
what is a replacement rate
net replacement rate - fertility rate of 2, every woman gives birth to (on average) one girl, means that the
current generation of women would replace itself with a younger generation of girls.
reality, the replacement rate is 2.1 - not all girls reach childbearing age
+ there are slightly more male births recorded globally
replacement rate for populations with a
high mortality is considerably higher than 2.
Why is infant mortality rate important
age specific- children under one are vulnerable + the group that society should be taking most care of
gives indication of level of healthcare available in the population, particularly maternity and post-natal care, as well as the prevalence of, and ability to, combat diseases
gives indication of wealth of country- HIC’s able to afford the healthcare, medicines, healthy diet and clean water that will keep infants alive
will have impact on fertility rate - Families in areas with high infant and child mortality will have more children to ensure that some survive into adulthood
what is the demographic transition model
shows changes overtime in the population of a country
what are the five stages of the demographic transition model
1 - high stationary
2 - early expanding
3 - late expanding
4 - low stationary
5 - declining
what are the characteristics of a high stationary population
high birth rate - maxamise chance of survival for children
high death rate - disease + famine
population fairly stable
example - traditional rainforests tribes
what are the characteristics of a early expanding population
birth rates remain high
death rates decrease rapidly
population grow rapidly
better standard of living
children source of family labour
examples - LDE’s, Afghanistan
What are the characteristics of a late expanding population
birth rate drops rapidly
death rate continues to decrease but more slowly
population still grows but not quite as fast
improved technology in agriculture and industry
better education systems and laws involving child employment
reduction in social and economic value of children
contraception more wildly available
working women chose to have fewer children
examples - mostly EME’s, India, Kenya, Brazil
What are the characteristics of a low stationary population
low birth rate
low death rate
population fairly stable maybe growing slightly
women tend to have small families choosing to study and follow careers
population growth mainly due to immigration
examples - mostly HDE’s, USA, France
What are the characteristics of a declining population
birth rate very low and falls below death rate
death rate increases slightly because of ageing population
total population starts to decrease
desire for smaller families
people opting to have children later in life
Examples - Italy, Germany, Japan, UK
When was the UK in each stage of the demographic transition model
1 - before industrial revolution (>1760)
2 - 1760 - 1880
3 - 1880 - 1940
4 - 1940 - 2024
5 - 2024
what are the strengths of the demographic transition model
easily + universally applied
used to compare stages of demographic development
used by demographers to make predictions about future chnage
what are limitations of a demographic transition model
model does not account for
- migration and its impact on birth rates
- government policies which may influence birth rates
- wars/conflicts which may influence death rates
- impact of major disease pandemics on death rates
- environmental limitations placed on future economic development
what is population pyramid
graphical illustration of the distribution of a population by age groups and gender
What can a population pyramid show
Snapshot at any given time of the population structure
Proved insights to past trends in population e.g. changes in fertility rates, mortality, international migration + what is currently happening to the population
Show past changes in population
Used to predict short term and long term future changes in population
Shows effects of wars/disease and famine
Indicate life expectancy
Give an idea of the stage of the demographic transition model
Show effects of migration on a population structure
what categories is the population structure divided into
0-14 - young dependent population, non economically active, dependent on parents to support them
15-64 - economically active, working population who earn an income and pay taxes
65+ - elderly dependent, non economically active, dependent on pensions and/or family
what s the dependency ratio
measures the level of dependency
young+elderly dependents/economically active x100
does not take into account unemployed
What is the UK’s population structure
0-14 - 11.041 million
15-65 - 37.904 million
65+ - 11.172 million
Dependency ratio - 58.65 - For every 100 people of working age there are around 59 people dependent on their earnings
Dependency ratio is falling in 2007 it was 60.68
Ratio of young to elderly changed - more elderly dependents than young dependents
what are the benefits of a youthful population
Young people of today are countries human resources of tomorrow
Can foster growth and development if there are favourable political and economic conditions
Can provide a cheap workforce and a growing market for foreign investors
what are the problems of a youthful population
Increasing demands for improving maternal and child healthcare education
Providing food, water, energy and shelter for growing population
Government need to keep up with demand for schooling
Lack of attendance in schools (especially in rural areas) leads to low levels of literacy and a poorly educated workforce
what are the benefits of an ageing population
Same pensioners are healthy and affluent - Growth in leisure and tourism industry, Growth in private health and residential care businesses, Companies able to target growing markets
Fewer people of working age so there should be less unemployment
Some elderly still work- Looking after grandchildren enabling parents to work, Volunteering in local community
what are the problems of an ageing population
Welfare and healthcare costs escalating as the elderly are more likely to need support
Pensions will cost increasingly more in the future (pension time bomb) - Costs will have to be borne by a smaller economically active proportion, Workers may have to pay higher taxes
Smaller proportion of population are economically active- Affect economic growth, Affect overall standard of living, May be skills shortages
what is the impacts natural change on population structure
Shape of population pyramids evolves based on changes in fertility and mortality
Demographic transition model gives a predicted sequence of change in birth and death rates over time
Two concepts can be linked and a definitive shape of population pyramid can be outlined for each stage of the model
Model determines what stage of demographic development a country is at - suggest appropriate population structure for countries at each stage of development
Different population structures has different implications for the use of resources and services and for the economic potential of a countries at different stages of development
what is the balance between population and resources
Dependency ratio for most developed countries between 50 and 70
Dependency ratio LIC usually more than 100
Composition of dependency will be different - rich, greater proportion of elderly, less developed, youthful population
Growth rate and size of population has impacts for the balance between population and resources
Larger population - more demands on the resources base of an area and put at risk development or increase standards of living for people
Depend on factors e.g. consumption patterns of that population, the levels of technology available
what is a demographic divdend
benefit a country gets when its working population outgrows its dependents
boost in economic productivity results from growing numbers in the workforce relative to the number of dependents
one time opportunity
what creates a demographic dividend
Lag between falling death rate and subsequent reduced birth rate may last for one or two generations before parents adjust to falling infant mortality by having fewer children
Lag period on of rapid population growth - produces a generation bulge that rises up the population pyramid eventually into the economically active sector
Few elderly dependents due to previously low life expectancy, few young dependents due to increasingly low fertility - dependency ratio falls
why will a large group of younger people give rise to a period of higher productivity and a boom in economic growth and social development
A large, young, educated workforce attracts investments
Workers with fewer children invest more of their income leading to financial stability and growth
Fewer children - women join workforce promoting more gender equality
Salaried workers provide a growing market for consumption of goods and services
what does countries have to do to take advantage of a demographic dividend
investment in education and employment, political scope for change
What are Asian tiger economes
countries that have taken advantage of the demographic dividend e.g. Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea
large amounts of foreign investments
export policies
grew between late 1980s to mid 1990s
growth rate of 7.5% per year for three decades - gaining status of developed countries
average resident of a non-Asian country in 1990 was 72 percent richer than his parents were in 1960, the corresponding figure for the average Korean is no less than 638 percent.
how can countries further maxamise the demographic dividend
if there is a rich natural resource base to support growing demand e.g. Brazil, China
how may the demographic dividend be wasted
poor educational attainment
lack of transparency and democracy in government
Political instability - deter investment and lack of employment opportunities will lead to the emigration of young people thus jeopardising the dividend
Mayanmar - not benefited due to political instability
How can the demographic dividend be problematic
Boost in productivity - create extra demand in the economy which may cause environmental degradation and put additional pressure on the use of natural resources unless they are managed sustainably
how can the demographic dividend be sustained
managing fertility rates at replacement level
after the demographic dividend what will occur
Improved life expectancy - in the long term the bulge will move up the pyramid creating and ageing population , put pressure on specific services e.g. healthcare
why do people mirgate
jobs
better quality of life
family
wars and conflicts - Gaza/Israle, Ukraine, Sudan
Natural disasters - climate refugees
Weather
Education e.g. Universities
Improved healthcare
what stops people from migrating internationally
cost/money
family
language barriers
health
visas - UK passport=150 countries,Afghanistan=5 countries
what is a push factor
the reasons people want to leave a place
what are push factors for international migration
war, conflict, political instability
ethnic and religious persecution
natural and man made disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, drought, famine
unemployment, low wages or poor working conditions
shortage of food
what is a pull factor
the reasons people want to enter a place
what are pull factors for international migration
better quality of life, standard of living
caried employment opportunities, higher wages
better healthcare and access to education services
political stability, more freedom
better life prospects
specific type of environment with a range of services to cater their needs
How would you talk about a push or pull factor in an exam question
‘’Lee’s Push-Pull Model of Migration
highlights there might be factors attracting or forcing away
to/from a place. A push factor in this example might include…”
what are the main types of migrants
economic migrants
what is a refugee
a person who had fled their country and cannot return for fear of harm due to race, religion, nationality or membership of a particular social group
what is an asylum seeker
applied to be a refugee and is waiting to hear if they have been successful
what is an economic migrant
person who chooses to moves to another country in order to improver their future prospects
what was the global number of international migrants estimated to be in July 2020
281 million
3.5% of population (2.8 in 2000, 2.3 1980)
by end of 2022 how many refugees were their estimated to be
25.3 million
5.9 million Palestine
5.4 million asylum seekers
what are the demographic implications of migration for the origin country
decreasing population
change in dependency ratio- wealthy countries older people move away for retirement, in poorer countries, younger people often w/ children, move away for economic opportunities
more economically active people move away (e.g. origin is poorer), birth rate decreases
less working age, bad for economy - ageing population
what are the demographic implications of migration for the host country
increasing population
change in dependency ratio
In wealthy countries, aging population due to retirement e.g Spain - puts more strain on the economy, other countries young working people move for better employment opportunities, so there’s a large youthful population - birth rate increases in these countries.
increase in “bulge” of working age people, enables demographic dividend
what are the social implications of migration for the origin country
Positives:
less unemployment
easier access to food and water because of reduced population size
less pressure on education/healthcare services
Negatives:
loss of working age population
increased dependency ratio, more pressure on younger people to care for elderly in ageing population
fewer people to pay tax + fund public services
‘brain drain’ - skilled migrants leave affecting economic development and creating gaps in sectors particularly teachers/doctors/nurses
loss of traditional culture/break up of communities
what are the social implications of migration for the host country
Positives:
increase cultural diversity, allows new markets and products e.g. London
increase in experience of different job fields
new cultures
Negatives:
increase demand for goods and services
potential conflict due to different cultures/ beliefs etc. Segregation of migrants into certain areas
increase in crime
language barriers
more strain on healthcare (especially maternal and infant healthcare) and education services (especially primary schools
what are the economic implications of migration for the origin country
Positives:
fewer financial burdens(less people to fund and provide resources to). Reduced pressure on food/water/energy etc.
Unemployment will reduce and there will be less competition for jobs
Remittances - money sent back home improve families lives
if migrants return back they can bring back new skills and knowledge
Negatives:
decrease in the working population
lower GDP
decreased tax revenue, so less gvt. budget for public spending
what are the economic implications of migration for the host country
Positives:
more vast abilities for jobs
more people to pay tax
overcome labour and skill shortages
may provide cheaper labour
reduces dependency - demographic dividend
working migrants spend money
Negatives:
potentially not enough housing
more unemployment (too many people, not enough jobs)
what are the political implications of migration for the origin country
Positives
May introduce pro-natal policies to encourage young to stay (but this can be expensive for the country)
Negatives
have to reinvest in and improve areas to encourage people to stay
what are the political implications of migration for the host country
Positives:
Migration policies
e.g. Australian government flying migrants to Pacific islands
e.g. Rishi Sunak sending asylum seekers to Rwanda
Negatives:
Pressures to control immigration - new migration policies can cause conflict e.g. Rwanda UK policy
Growth of right wing racist organisations
what are the environmental implications of migration for the origin country
Positives:
less pollution from vehicles, as less commuting workforce
land may become rewilded, hedgerows and farmland change to meadows
less intensive farming as not as high demand food
Negatives:
people left behind have to manage more farmland
Farmland/buildings and sometimes whole villages can be abandoned
less environment
what are the environmental implications of migration for the origin country
Negatives:
pressure on land for development - roads, housing, other infrastructure
increased energy demand
Increasing population will lead to increase deforestation for housing demand, destruction of land/habitats.
Higher demand for food, more arable and pastoral farming, extensive and commercial farming can be bad for the land
Increasing population leads to higher amounts of air and noise pollution
what are the health implications of migration for the origin country
Positives:
decrease demand for healthcare
less people, less pollution, lower risk of respiratory diseases
less overcrowding so diseases don’t spread as quickly
Due to decrease in population, government may change health policies to become more appealing to encourage the population to stay there
what are the health implications of migration for the host country
Positives:
more skilled health workers - stronger healthcare system
Negatives:
bigger demand for healthcare
risk of bringing diseases over e.g covid
more economic activity + pollution can cause more respiratory disease
pressure on healthcare if migrants are not skilled
What is an example of socio-economic factors that affect natural population change
China - one child policy
What happened during China’s one child policy
Introduced in 1970, relaxed in 2013
Replacement with two child policy 2016
Successful particularly in urban areas
Low birth, death, natural increase rates
Maternal and infant mortality rates reduced
Average life expectancy increased
Lower unemployment rate
Production output not been affected - the economy has grown
Quality of life improved
Demand on social infrastructure and resources e.g. healthcare, education, food, energy being less than it would have been if birth rate been allowed to grow
Policy might have reduced the severity of atmospheric pollution
Culture and tradition - large family, male offspring important
Selective terminations based on sex of fetus
Female infanticide, infant abandonment, child trading
Population balanced changed
Population structure in younger age groups is male weighted
1982 sex ratio at birth 108, 2012 increased to 118
49.9 ‘missing woman’ in 2003
Threatened a marriage squeeze - insufficient brides
Increase in sex trafficking in China
Only children may have received excessive amount of attention from parents and grandparents
Only child may have to provide for their two parents and four grandparents
what is an example of a cultural control that affect natural population change
Balgladesh
What happened to the population in Bangladesh due to cultural expectations
One of most densely populated countries in the world
80% of bangladesh is low-lying, fertile floodplain and delta - good for intensive rice cultivation but prone to flooding
¾ of population live in hazardous rural areas
Heavier monsoons and sea levels rise associated with climate change and longer-term threats
Laws raised the minimum age of marriage to 18 for women and 21 for men
Reduced fertility rate in Bangladesh
Improving access to contraception, maternal and child health care will reduce fertility rate more
Trails in 1970s where trained female health workers came to mothers to pick a method of contraception best suited to them, to treat side effects and also provide basic maternal and child healthcare
Children became healthier, fewer women died of pregnancy related courses and child mortality fell
Fewer children to support so families became wealthier
Parents got more farmland, built more valuable homes and gained access to running water
Children stayed in school longer, women enjoyed higher incomes
Since trials in 1970s government training tens of thousands primary healthcare workers
Average birth rates fallen from 6 to 2
Child mortality rates reduced by two thirds
Population expected to reach 200 million in 2050 then stabilise
Gender imbalance - 2.7 million ‘missing women’
Rate of infant mortality amongst girls fallen faster than the rate of male infant mortality - rate among females was previously higher - observed in areas more with more easily accessible primary healthcare services
Closer to situation where boys and girls under five have equal chance of survival
Why are boys and girls treaded differently when they are infants
because of their sex
Neglect of female children worse in rural areas and more severe in later born children (all ready have a lot of children)
how are boys and girls treated differently when they are infants
Girls miss out on inheritance rights
Selective terminations
Children offered different amounts of food according to gender
Varying levels of care during times of ill health - Low male to female mortality ratio amongst children aged under 5
what is the number of missing women
excess female mortality worldwide
Comparing actual sex ratio of countries to expected sex ratios
Number of missing women larger than the combined death toll of both world wars
Over 100 million missing women worldwide
